Model 3 Performance...Plaid [speculation]

[Knightshade]

The data is definitely not perfect, for all the reasons you sited, plus the self-reporting biases.
But it's WAY better and more insightful then what we get out of Tesla, so its much better than nothing.

Data that gives you wrong answers because the same size is biased and tiny is worse than no data though- because it gives you confidence in wrong answers.... so in that case nothing is definitely better.

Tesla has raised prices on all of its cars, at both the bottom and top of the vehicle (3, Y, S, X) ranges.
Remember the $35K entry-level Model 3?
Try $45K these days!

Well, it's not the same car of course- but apart from that they're still backordered so that's not an issue so unsure why you bring it up.

Higher prices for goods sold negatively effect demand, in the long term.
If you have data points that suggest otherwise, please document and present them, and I will personally submit your candidacy for a Nobel in Economics.

We just went over one.

Tesla has significantly raised prices, and demand continues to exceed supply.

Therefore it's proven that LOWER prices would not increase # of cars sold at all

They can't because they already have more demand at the higher prices than they can meet.

The LR Model Y for example currently shows a November 2022 delivery date in the US.

It's sold out nearly a year in advance.

Why would they give up some of those sales putting chips and batteries into a cheaper car that'd require more complexity to add to the lineup instead of just making more Ys?

That makes no sense at all to do- and would result in fewer total cars sold- as Elon pointed out on the call.

Tesla raised prices on all of their cars because they could, due to the fact that demand > supply.

So you understand demand>supply even at these prices.... but you're sure the price raises will lower demand?

Pick a lane my dude

 

[Kvitravn]

Well, it's a lot more transparent to raise the prices and offer everyone a clear transaction than to gouge people with dealer premiums and markups. Tesla is in a great position given that they sell every car the can make, while practically doubling the volume year on year. Price hikes are good for resale as well, everyone wins.

Elon could just frame it like Ferrari does "We don't want excessive volumes to dilute our exclusivity and brand value"

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Honestly, Tesla could shave .1 to .2 seconds off of the 1/4 mile and perhaps even 0-60 mph time simply by offering lighter wheels for the Performance model. The 3D6 motor Model 3s in Europe are already posting 11.3x 1/4 mile times. If you put smaller motors on those cars you could see close to 11 flat for the 1/4 mile. That actually would be a significant upgrade for basically minimal changes.

I would swap my 2022 Model 3 Performance(11.40 1/4 mile) for an 11.1 second 3D6 18" wheel Model 3 Performance in a heart beat.

 

[EVolv3d]

Elon's reaction to a Model 3 Plaid: "uh... no." He goes on to say that the goal is to decrease complexity and price to improve affordability.

 

[heavyD]

Reduce complexity? There’s not much left to strip out of the Model 3 unless he moves to manual seats and manual crank windows.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Elon's reaction to a Model 3 Plaid: "uh... no." He goes on to say that the goal is to decrease complexity and price to improve affordability.

So I guess that settles that. With preconditioning and some weight reduction it still is a fairly fast car though.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

Elon's reaction to a Model 3 Plaid: "uh... no." He goes on to say that the goal is to decrease complexity and price to improve affordability.

Yeah, I think the idea of a "Plaid" version may imply some additional complexity, but a higher performance Performance Model, maybe not. Different motors/batteries aren't really "more complex", you're swapping parts.

Wheels? A swap. The M3P should really have gotten more stout rubber like the MYP.

Even suspension, you don't need the full on air setup, just a few more bespoke components for the Performance version, springs, swaybars, etc.

Don't add the extra driver display, don't add a rear display, in fact, don't change anything about the interior (though in a previous post I said maybe offer some "sport" seats).

Cost?

Sure, I don't think anyone would suggest this wouldn't be a more expensive version of the M3P, I just think there's should be a Performance model that differentiates itself more from the LR version - and that wouldn't be more complex, and be a good way to establish a more competitive version for the next version of the BMW i-whatever (or Volvo, or Ford).

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, I think the idea of a "Plaid" version may imply some additional complexity, but a higher performance Performance Model, maybe not. Different motors/batteries aren't really "more complex", you're swapping parts.

Wheels? A swap. The M3P should really have gotten more stout rubber like the MYP.

Even suspension, you don't need the full on air setup, just a few more bespoke components for the Performance version, springs, swaybars, etc.

That is all added complexity.

Complexity in supply chain for multiple parts, complexity in inventory and service for multiple parts, complexity in the MFG process, complexity in BOM and SN tracking for different parts, etc

Same reason the "standard" interior never appeared- the complexity of having multiple parts for seats and other things wasn't worth the minor cost savings compared to using the same parts for every one they build.

Last I read they actually removed the (barely) lowered suspension on the P, which would allow them reduced complexity by not having 2 different suspension setups.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

That is all added complexity.

Complexity in supply chain for multiple parts, complexity in inventory and service for multiple parts, complexity in the MFG process, complexity in BOM and SN tracking for different parts, etc

That is true, and as someone who's been involved in the logistics sector, I probably should've known better - my expertise was overridden by my desire for a more potent Performance Model Apologies

I hope Tesla offers something a little more between the current P and the Plaids in the next 24 months, otherwise I may be cross shipping, BMW, etc.

 

[paradoxical]

I have an order in for a M3P but if BMW comes out with a real M version of the i4 that crushes the M3 in performance, I'll jump ship immediately. Carplay + better performance + hatchback + better interior > Supercharger network.

 

[Knightshade]

Well, the other issue is there's still limited supply of everything-- for example it's likely Tesla could shave at least a couple tenths off in weight savings from structural 4680 battery packs-- but for the foreseeable future all 4680 supply will be going to first some Austin and then Berlin Ys, and eventually large numbers of cybertrucks and some smaller # of Semis.... so it's likely years before the 3 would get updated with those, since Tesla is likely to keep using 2170 cells there until 4680 has ramped far more massively.

See also how even the Plaid is still using 18650 because Tesla needs to use all the cells it can get its hands on regardless of form factor.


That said, AFAIK the quickest BMW EV sedan right now is still embarrassingly heavy and slow compared to the Model 3P so not sure what you'd be cross shopping from a performance perspective.

 

[paradoxical]

That said, AFAIK the quickest BMW EV sedan right now is still embarrassingly heavy and slow compared to the Model 3P so not sure what you'd be cross shopping from a performance perspective.

That is not true, the i4 M50 traps 120mph in the 1/4 mile and is significantly faster from 60-80, 60-100, and top end speed. The M3 is only faster 0-60.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

Carplay + better performance + hatchback + better interior > Supercharger network.

Not for me. Yet.

So far, Tesla has the edge on the EV part of the equation, the SuC is such a major factor, like we were just in The Keys, our destination (unlike pretty much all our other trips over the last year), didn't have any options, and there's only a SuC in Marathon and in Florida City. I felt a bit of the burn of the reduced charging options ... in a Tesla. Something else without even the two SuC locations? No thanks.

Then compound that with the i4 having all sorts of silly, leftover ICE cruft? Again, no thanks.

If the i4 was a superior option, factoring in all things EV, car, etc., I'd start the gears turning towards a swap.

No, I'll wait for:

1) A ground up EV platform performance sedan from BMW

2) The US SuC network to open for non-Tesla vehicles and a notable increase in the rest of the DCFC infrastructure

I figure, I'll have a good handle on those two right about the time the M3P is due to be returned around mid-2024

(Maybe Jeep with have their BEV Wrangler available by then too, and we can go full on BEV for both vehicles)

 

[Knightshade]

That is not true, the i4 M50 traps 120mph in the 1/4 mile

And yet takes longer to get there- so yes, it is true.

11.7@120 for the pig heavy BMW.

Meanwhile the dragy leaderboards are clogged with Model 3Ps running 11.3x 1/4 miles at just under 119 mph.

Nobody ever bragged about "I was going 1.1 mph faster when I lost the race!" and the BMW i4 is unlikely to change that.


The compromises BMW had to make in doing an ICE conversion are all over that thing including the hilarious space lost to the transmission tunnel.

If/when they come out with a real purpose built performance sedan EV they might have something interesting- but the i4 ain't it.

 

[Sam1]

Elon's reaction to a Model 3 Plaid: "uh... no." He goes on to say that the goal is to decrease complexity and price to improve affordability.

I wish they would have asked them about replacing the existing motors with plaid motors and not asking about converting to a tri-motor.

 

[paradoxical]

And yet takes longer to get there- so yes, it is true.

11.7@120 for the pig heavy BMW.

Meanwhile the dragy leaderboards are clogged with Model 3Ps running 11.3x 1/4 miles at just under 119 mph.

Nobody ever bragged about "I was going 1.1 mph faster when I lost the race!" and the BMW i4 is unlikely to change that.

It literally only takes longer to get there because the Model 3 has better traction and murders it from 0-20. At every other speed besides from a dead stop, the Tesla loses the "race." I spend most of my time rolling, not at stoplights. On the highway, the BMW will waste the Tesla from any speed.

For what it's worth, my current car is faster than both of these by ET and trap speed, so I'd be taking a step down either way. I have a very difficult time losing 5mph trap stepping down to a M3, which means you will lose to every Mustang 5.0 automatic on the road from a roll. Unless you do the Tesla "I was only racing for 2 seconds then I slammed the brakes before you blew by me so I could claim I won." The difference between 130 and 125 trap speed wouldn't really matter in terms of likely encounters on the street, but 121 and 116 is in a really critical zone where a TON of cars on the street fall into that range.

Keep in mind, I have a M3P on order so I'm not hating on Tesla. Right now I think it's the better overall package. But it's not faster than the i4 M50 in any situation besides from a dig (and I'm going to guess the Tesla is faster on the race track because of the lower weight).

As a new Tesla owner, this irritates me and I would pay thousands more for more power. I HAVE paid thousands more for more power for every single ICE car I have owned.

 

[Knightshade]

It literally only takes longer to get there because the Model 3 has better traction and murders it from 0-20.

And weirdly, 1/4 mile races all start at 0 and care about traction.

So the BMW loses every time. By quite a bit.

At every other speed besides from a dead stop, the Tesla loses the "race."

<Citation required>


Meanwhile, I have some that says you're continuing to be wrong about this... same source for both to be fair.

Tested: 2022 BMW i4 M50 Is an EV M3

The new electric 4-series outruns an M3 Competition to 60 mph, and it costs less.

www.caranddriver.com

That says 30-50 for the i4 M50 is 1.5 seconds.

50-70 for the BMW is 2 seconds.

Which is... guess what? slower than the P3D on both counts.

Tested: 2019 Tesla Model 3 Performance Hits 60 in 3.1 Seconds

Tesla's smallest sedan is amusing with more power and better handling.

www.caranddriver.com

1.1 seconds 30-50 for the Model 3 Performance.

1.7 seconds 50-70 for the Model 3 Performance.

And those P numbers are from before it got even faster from software updated (their 1/4 is still only 11.6, while it's in the mid 11.3s now for example).



The BMW is a heavy, slow, pig. Even from a roll.


The BMW isn't even as quick 30-50 as the LR AWD Model 3, let alone the P.

 

[paradoxical]

And weirdly, 1/4 mile races all start at 0 and care about traction.

So the BMW loses every time. By quite a bit.




<Citation required>

Tested: 2022 BMW i4 M50 Is an EV M3

The new electric 4-series outruns an M3 Competition to 60 mph, and it costs less.

www.caranddriver.com

That says 30-50 for the i4 M50 is 1.5 seconds.

50-70 for the BMW is 2 seconds.

Which is... guess what? slower than the P3D on both counts.

Tested: 2019 Tesla Model 3 Performance Hits 60 in 3.1 Seconds

Tesla's smallest sedan is amusing with more power and better handling.

www.caranddriver.com

1.1 seconds 30-50 for the Model 3 Performance.

1.7 seconds 50-70 for the Model 3 Performance.

The BMW is a heavy, slow, pig. Even above 0.


The BMW isn't even as quick 30-50 as the LR AWD Model 3, let alone the P.

The BMW simply makes more power. It is amazing you are even debating this. The Tesla has better traction, the BMW makes more power. The BMW is a faster car in every single situation that is not traction limited.

 

[Knightshade]

The BMW simply makes more power. It is amazing you are even debating this.

It is, given every calibrated measurement says I'm right and you refuse to accept facts.


"Measured by a professional device" is useful info and shows the Tesla is quicker 0-60, in the 1/4 mile, AND FROM A ROLL AS WELL both 30-50 and 50-70.

"Rando on youtube had a better reaction time from a roll" is not useful info but appears to be your primary source.

 

[paradoxical]

It is, given every calibrated measurement says I'm right and you refuse to accept facts.


"Measured by a professional device" is useful info and shows the Tesla is quicker 0-60, in the 1/4 mile, AND FROM A ROLL AS WELL both 30-50 and 50-70.

"Rando on youtube had a better reaction time from a roll" is not useful info but appears to be your primary source.

Weird, when I reference your own source (Car and Driver) it supports my argument. The BMW is faster to 100mph (8 seconds instead of 8.3), has a higher trap speed, and is faster to 130mph. It clearly makes more power. The Tesla is only superior in initial traction.

It seems you may not be experienced with fast cars, since you don't understand the implications of a car pulling on another from a roll. Reaction time is divorced from trap speed. Reaction time simply only affects the initial stage of the race; the car making more power will always pull on the car making less power once they get moving - which the BMW does every time.

Let me put it this way - can you find a single video with the Tesla pulling on the BMW from a roll, or where the Tesla traps higher? I'll paypal you $50 if you can.