Yeah. I mean that minimal work is more than enough to confirm what was said by some before: no need to panic. There isn't any measurable hints of delays and the hold from the rumor is probably not a show stopper... yet.There are certainly many more ways to slice and dice the data, but I get paid a lot more to do that at work than I do here
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Mahamilto
Member
It’s not a clear of backlog (though I’ve heard rumors this quarter may be due to some other issue with distribution), it’s that they make batches of the cars, with more of the M3P seemingly being made toward the end of the month. This has been the trend.
It’s something I wish I knew when I ordered mine; must have checked 10000x and the numbers move around with what appears to be virtually no rhyme or reason. I also spent hours pouring over inventory sites; even trying to snap up cars to then find that those sites (ev-tsla for example) are showing preproduction cars too. Even tried to change my VIN to one and thankfully was denied as I got my vin 2d later and my car was already post production (the car I tried to take was actually preproduction and I would have ended up waiting even longer).
Just trying to help future owners avoid the mistakes I made. Don’t change ur vin unless a car is post production. And expect end of quarter delivery as the norm unless you got notified of a much earlier delivery.
It’s something I wish I knew when I ordered mine; must have checked 10000x and the numbers move around with what appears to be virtually no rhyme or reason. I also spent hours pouring over inventory sites; even trying to snap up cars to then find that those sites (ev-tsla for example) are showing preproduction cars too. Even tried to change my VIN to one and thankfully was denied as I got my vin 2d later and my car was already post production (the car I tried to take was actually preproduction and I would have ended up waiting even longer).
Just trying to help future owners avoid the mistakes I made. Don’t change ur vin unless a car is post production. And expect end of quarter delivery as the norm unless you got notified of a much earlier delivery.
If you had read, I said based on this thread, not the spreadsheet. Also, maybe you don't know, but not everyone puts their info in that spreadsheet and some of them don't update after receiving the VIN. So, as I said, if you go back 100 pages to be more precise, you will see people receiving their VINs.
I got some prints to you, but I'm not paid to do it here, so if you want to see more, just go back in the thread.
Huh, I ordered the day before and haven't gotten a window yet. Which one did you order?
Jason1652
Member
Someone dug the whole spreadsheet to quantitatively prove that the statement is false. 10 VINs werer issued in feb vs 50 in march. I am a data scientist, I’ll take the speadsheet over posts anecdotes. Sorry.
When I ordered my M3P in Dec 30 2020, original delivery date was Feb 13 - Mar 13. Dates jumped all over the place. Sometimes dates disappeared completely. Got my VIN somewhere around Mar 16 and took delivery on Mar 20. Usually P models are delivered last couple weeks in the last month of the quarter. There are exceptions but not the rule.
As a good data scientist you should know how to interpret text. I never said that there were more VINs in feb than march. I only said that based on the thread (mentioned by the guy I answered) we can see that we had VINs in feb. I only stated that "the last 2 weeks rule" is not 100%. And I still don't know why you came with all this spreadsheet thing that was not mentioned in the conversation. Also I'm curious how you proved this statement false without arguing against it...
"Also if you go back 60 pages you will see that a lot of people received his VINs on Feb 17 - Feb 20, so this "last 2weeks of the quarter" is not 100% sure."
With all due respect I don’t care much about interpreting your text. You disagreed with @Mahamilto while he’s right and you’re wrong. You counter the “broad statistically significant” overall trend with outlier anecdotes. When he said “in the last week” he did not imply “all” but “most”.
My understanding is that you are arguing that the deliveries this quarter are being delayed compared to Q1 while quantitatively speaking this is not the case. As of right now we cannot state that they are not on track.
"You will all get your cars last 2w of of the quarter."
Still looking for the "most" instead of "all", Mr. Data Scientist.
I don't want to prolong this, but with all due respext, I just put another point and you came with yours "rights" and "wrongs".
Stop being obtuse. Let’s go from the beginning: do you affirm there are abnormal delays? Yes or no?
Mahamilto
Member
It’s implied. Clearly.
For sure I was saying most, not all. Also referring to deliveries, not VIN assignments.
It is a trend, not an absolute, that the M3P production is toward end of the month, and Tesla frequently does bolus delivery right before end of quarter.
Considering June 30 is the last day of quarter, I’m making guesses based on trends, that most people will get a VIN in late first to end of 2nd week of June, with delivery being June 14th-30th, varying a touch on region abd VIN timing.
I only even comment because I damn near screwed up my own delivery by being impatient. I found a VIN on ev-tsla inventory and asked to have it assigned. When declined I demanded, and it took a regional manager saying it could cause me to not get delivery until the next quarter to back off. He was going to do it, but said “this is an early preproduction VIN and I’m worried you will be sorry” to say fine I’ll wait. 2d later I had a VIN. 12d later I had the car... 10d till end of quarter.
Waiting sucks. And this system isn’t transparent... just hoping others learn from what we’ve seen. Be patient. Q2 is almost done. Most will get the ride soon. And it’s incredible.
For sure I was saying most, not all. Also referring to deliveries, not VIN assignments.
It is a trend, not an absolute, that the M3P production is toward end of the month, and Tesla frequently does bolus delivery right before end of quarter.
Considering June 30 is the last day of quarter, I’m making guesses based on trends, that most people will get a VIN in late first to end of 2nd week of June, with delivery being June 14th-30th, varying a touch on region abd VIN timing.
I only even comment because I damn near screwed up my own delivery by being impatient. I found a VIN on ev-tsla inventory and asked to have it assigned. When declined I demanded, and it took a regional manager saying it could cause me to not get delivery until the next quarter to back off. He was going to do it, but said “this is an early preproduction VIN and I’m worried you will be sorry” to say fine I’ll wait. 2d later I had a VIN. 12d later I had the car... 10d till end of quarter.
Waiting sucks. And this system isn’t transparent... just hoping others learn from what we’ve seen. Be patient. Q2 is almost done. Most will get the ride soon. And it’s incredible.
So here's my issue...
If you want to say THAT then say that... that is a helpful story that lets people know where you're coming from and what your experience was. It shows you trying to be helpful and supportive.
What you SAID was --
Intended or not, that reads condescending and minimizing to those of us who are in it now.
My two cents.
Mahamilto
Member
I feel your frustration, I too shared that. By all means displace that frustration onto me, I’m used to this in my line of work and am more than willing to shoulder the burden.
TheRFMan
Member
I looks like more M3P orders are converging on the last two weeks of June, as expected. Mine is now June 14 - 30th.
Mine still June 03 - June 21, but it always moves like yours, so probably it will change soon
The date actually disappeared this morning and went back to 4-11 Weeks *shrug*.
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