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From everything I've heard people say that they've been told from sales people I'm pretty sure they know just as much as we do.
And, even if they had that many and only employees know, it woud have certainly leaked by now. Unless of course this is the leak ...
Garlan Garner
Banned
I can't believe its that much. I wonder how we can get the real number of reservations pending.
flankspeed8
Member
My guess is that they have plateaued for the moment. I think the next tweet will indeed be the 500k milestone whenever that may be. Most likely closer to reveal part 2.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Jamaicaman
Member
Boy... some car salesmans...they will say the most ludicrous things. If you do not go into as an informed consumer... you seem to have little chance to receive unbiased information. I have purchased many new cars... and it is very funny to hear some of the drivel they will expel out of their mouth! Kinda sad really!
Garlan Garner
Banned
They have MS's laying around everywhere. The "should" let all of the M3 line waiters borrow them until their M3 is ready.
Just made my Model 3 reservation this weekend RN108906xxx, I think Tesla has already surpassed a million Model 3 reservations. My impression on why Tesla was reluctant to update the current reservation numbers on the recent earnings call or since; is that an enormous flood of negative press would be generated claiming that Tesla will never be able to produce and deliver that many vehicles any time soon.
My thought is that for all those people who waited years for their Roadster, Model S and Model X there are millions more that could not afford one of the previous models and are fine waiting until 2020 to get a car from Tesla. Additionally the current and announced models from competitors are not very compelling and even if they mange to capture a portion of sales from people waiting on a Model 3. None of the manufactures are planning on making any in significant quantities. Example the Chevy Bolt is only going to be 30k next year and the LG plant that is making the battery and drivetrain has said they could scale to 50k in the next few years. Even if every other manufacture was making 30k to 50k a year, if Tesla can scale to 500k a year they will end up with 50% of the EV market (I do not consider the so called hybrids as EV's, those are just token offerings to game the CARB system)
Plans for Increasing battery production capacity from every source making automotive cells other that Tesla are only planing factories with capacities of packs for 50k vehicles a year and larger scale factories take many years of planning and construction and ramp up. By the time competitors are ramped up to 50k vehicle battery packs a year, Tesla will be at 500k a year. No other manufacture is planning for 500k vehicles a year and the critical point is that none of the battery suppliers are building factories to supply that type of demand. After the Model 3 crushes the Toyota Camary as the number one vehicle in sales for a year then the other manufactures will react and plan to compete which will then take them 3 to 5 more years. (This is why all other manufactures are talking 2020 something before certain models will be available and multiple models available in 2025) by 2025 Gigafactory 2 may be up and running with Gigafactory 3 possibly under construction by then as well.
The mistake other automotive manufactures are making is waiting on Tesla to prove the market and only scale after Tesla has reached some milestone, they will continue to get further and further behind. By the time Tesla has sold 500k cars a year it will take competitors years to reach that capacity, by the time competitors can produce 500k EV's a year Tesla will have most likely have reached capacity for millions of vehicles a year, pushing Tesla further into the lead and keeping the combined competitors capacity 3 to 5 years behind Tesla.
My thought is that for all those people who waited years for their Roadster, Model S and Model X there are millions more that could not afford one of the previous models and are fine waiting until 2020 to get a car from Tesla. Additionally the current and announced models from competitors are not very compelling and even if they mange to capture a portion of sales from people waiting on a Model 3. None of the manufactures are planning on making any in significant quantities. Example the Chevy Bolt is only going to be 30k next year and the LG plant that is making the battery and drivetrain has said they could scale to 50k in the next few years. Even if every other manufacture was making 30k to 50k a year, if Tesla can scale to 500k a year they will end up with 50% of the EV market (I do not consider the so called hybrids as EV's, those are just token offerings to game the CARB system)
Plans for Increasing battery production capacity from every source making automotive cells other that Tesla are only planing factories with capacities of packs for 50k vehicles a year and larger scale factories take many years of planning and construction and ramp up. By the time competitors are ramped up to 50k vehicle battery packs a year, Tesla will be at 500k a year. No other manufacture is planning for 500k vehicles a year and the critical point is that none of the battery suppliers are building factories to supply that type of demand. After the Model 3 crushes the Toyota Camary as the number one vehicle in sales for a year then the other manufactures will react and plan to compete which will then take them 3 to 5 more years. (This is why all other manufactures are talking 2020 something before certain models will be available and multiple models available in 2025) by 2025 Gigafactory 2 may be up and running with Gigafactory 3 possibly under construction by then as well.
The mistake other automotive manufactures are making is waiting on Tesla to prove the market and only scale after Tesla has reached some milestone, they will continue to get further and further behind. By the time Tesla has sold 500k cars a year it will take competitors years to reach that capacity, by the time competitors can produce 500k EV's a year Tesla will have most likely have reached capacity for millions of vehicles a year, pushing Tesla further into the lead and keeping the combined competitors capacity 3 to 5 years behind Tesla.
N5329K
Active Member
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
This is a very good post that I agree with for the most part. There is still some, slim, minute chance for traditional automobile manufacturers. But it will require an immediate about-face and wholehearted commitment to electric vehicles. I had hoped that some of the smaller companies would be willing to take on what may seem to be a 'risk' by realizing it is an opportunity.
I don't see it happening, at least not yet. Even with the huge number of Model 3 reservations, even if they all convert to orders, it is still a relative drop in the bucket as far as percentages of new car sales. What we need is continued strong sales, I hope that after the second reveal, and even more so, after production is up and running there will be even more demand, or at least enough that they can continue to produce 400,000 - 500,000 a year with none of them sitting around looking for buyers.
I also think what will really get their (the other manufacturers) attention and motivate them would the success of the Tesla truck when they produce it. The only problem is that if the Model 3 does as well it looks like it will, they'll need to increase production capacity again to support the demand. Not a horrible problem to have, but still a problem.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Only 16 brands have sold at least 200,000 units to US Customers so far in 2016, through August. So those are the only ones on pace to sell at least 300,000 units this year. Very few of the brands that sell less than that are independent firms, as most are part of larger automotive groups that sell other brands here too. Those independents would be the 'smaller companies' that I refer to.
One of the traditional automobile manufacturers would have to break ranks with the rest. Currently even the least of them seem to be in line, a full lock step, progressing in rank and file, parade style in their eternal support and mutual commitment to ICE vehicles. It would be nice to see one of those companies that has shown potential for growth in the past manage to realize it by either going full electric, or introducing a product line that is fully electric within their brand. Someone perhaps like Volvo, Mitsubishi, or Mazda could manage the feat, I think.
Volvo hasn't sold over 100,000 units in the US since 2007. They've only crossed 70,000 units twice during the interim. They could certainly use the influx of Customers that would come from interest in electric drive.
Mitsubishi also has not sold over 100,000 units here since 2007. But they have at least moved over 95,000 units twice, 2008 and 2015. Three times they sold less than 60,000 in the US over that time frame.
Mazda has actually not done too bad in recent years, compared to those two. They have sold at least 250,000 units for 14 years straight. Gradually increasing from a low of 207,767 in 2009 to reach 319,184 in 2015. But it seems their sales are slipping, as they've only moved 199,378 units through August 2016.
I hope one of them makes the move to electric. But I figure it most likely they never will. I find that unfortunate. Otherwise, it will require a bunch of much smaller companies to work toward the goal outside of the traditional automobile industry, and that would take much longer than should be necessary:
Agreed, I get the impression that all of the others are simply biding their time hoping that this is just a phase and it all goes away. While, in the back of their minds, their counting on their size and manufacturing capability to be able to just jump right in if it doesn't. Give it a year or two for gas prices to start creeping up again and we'll, hopefully, see some shifting.
Based on reservation numbers others have posted and mine the gap is now in the range of over a million...
"Model 3 RN1078XXXXX Second in line at the Chicago Grand Avenue event on 3/31/2016." ~ Garlan Garner
My Model 3 reservation this weekend (9/18/2016) was RN108906xxx, so 108,906,000 - 107,800,000 - = 1,106,000
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I do not believe anyone ever figured out exactly what the Registration Numbers stood for, as they appear to be rather random. But some who analyzed them felt that part of the number was a date/time stamp for when your order may have been received. I am rather certain that whether that is the case, or it is simply a random number, they certainly are not sequential and are meant solely for internal use by Tesla Motors to keep track of individual Reservations from Customers.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Correct. I believe that those companies that don't have a luxury division of their own have in particular been in 'Wait and See' mode regarding Tesla Motors since either early 2013 or early 2014. I think that if they maintain that stance through 2018, they will be in very big trouble. There may be some large companies that have enormous amounts of capital, or at least tremendous lines of credit, that could potentially make an immediate shift in strategy to become more inclusive of electric vehicles in the short term. But their corporate identity is largely built around their internal engine design teams and those guys will not want to share power with those who can design electric drivetrains. That is where the bulk of the inertia within large firms remains, as they don't want to: 1) learn new technologies themselves; 2) bring in those who understand electric drivetrains to replace themselves; or 3) 'farm out' all the electric drivetrains they use to third parties -- unless they are for a minimal minority of the vehicles the company produces or are used in hybrid cars that also include a proper ICE. It is a matter of Pride, Prejudice, and Perspective.
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