9 of 11 cars that have sold over 14,000 total vehicles in 2016 have sales down YOY. Not sure why BMW sales are down so much.
It would be interesting to look at cars cheaper than 35k if there is the same downtrend.
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9 of 11 cars that have sold over 14,000 total vehicles in 2016 have sales down YOY. Not sure why BMW sales are down so much.
Not just that gas is cheaper, but I think people are starting to see trucks as a good value for certain leisure activities. They are very utilitarian and when properly equipped, they really pack a lot of luxury. A $70k F150 might seem outrageous until you realize just how much stuff you can get in it.Not so much, they are holding pretty steady. The big takeaway from 2016 versus 2015 so far is that car sales are down, while truck sales are up. Total sales are up 1.2% overall. My guess is that cheap gas is the primary contributor.
RT
Strong US sales of the Volt surpass the Model S for July Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
View attachment 188619
Where does this put Tesla in total US EV sales? I thought last I heard they were nearing 100K
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 Jul 86,804 (14,240 Model S and 7,690 Model X = 21,390 for Jan-Jul 2016 + prior years)
So if I got the math right we are at 86,800 or so at end of July. At 3,200 a month they'll hit US 100,000 in November 2016. If sales ramp up it could happen earlier, if sales slow it could happen January (they tend to not get many deliveries inbetween Dec 1 and Dec 26). I'd also say that means they won't hit 200,000 in the US before Model 3 starts production. I think the thing that confuses so many is Tesla talks about increased production rates, but in reality the majority of the increase production is going to foreign countries (as close as Canada and as far away as Asia).
Your math is correct for 86.8K sales to date in the US.
However, the 2Q16 report states increased production of 50K for 2H16.
Great but look at 2015 numbers for a second
50,658 produced by Tesla
25,914 counted as US.
We also already have the July numbers for US so you can't add 6 months worth, we only have 5 months left. I could see an additional 7,000 to 10,000 in the US if they pull the rate up as discussed and that could pull the 100,000 mark closer to October than November but that isn't a huge shift time wise.
Looks like it will still be available for model 3 sales. But how many? 50k?
Model 3 sales with full credit? If, and that's a big IF the 3 sales start next July. I am hoping for a half credit anyway.
Looks like it will still be available for model 3 sales. But how many? 50k? Model 3 sales with full credit? If, and that's a big IF the 3 sales start next July. I am hoping for a half credit anyway.
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit
It's entirely possible that it will trigger sooner and run out sooner but the important concept is that it doesn't go away immediately and when it starts going away it diminishes slowly not all at once.
If Tesla is pumping out 10,000 plus a month in 2018 they could easily sell 50,000 or more with the full tax credit They could then be selling double that amount in the next 6 months with half tax credit. And then double rate again with 1/4 tax credit. All in all hundreds of thousands of Model 3s could be sold with federal tax credit.
Keep in mind Tesla can game this slightly by focusing on overseas deliveries of Model S and Model X the month they are going to roll over 200,000 US deliveries. If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.