Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[Surfer]

The car that they took orders for on stage said “215 miles of range, $35k base.” There was zero mention of a long range model.

I am also impressed that they effectively hit their production dates as promised. There’s no question in my mind that the Model 3 is launching infinitely smoother than the S or X did and that it will be the best selling EV for the foreseeable future. No conflict from me there.

But a $44k base car (plus mandatory upgrades) is what they’re going to be selling for the first 18 months of production. This is 26% more than the base car they advertised when they took my deposit. They did not announce that long range car until about six months ago.

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This is not what a real company should do.

 

[gjunky]

I am a little worried that the $35k Model 3 will go the same route as the $50k Model S and that there is a chance that Tesla will only make a handful of them before stating that there was no market for it (this happened to the 40kWh Model S).

On the other hand, I think there is a much larger market for the $35 Model 3 and that there are fewer (if any) technical issues with this model, as they seemed to have with the 40kWh Model S.

I am curious to see what the prices will be for AWD and Performance and I am sure they will work out the production kinks soon with a six month delay from their original ramp-up in which case nobody will care anymore a year from now.

 

[ℬête Noire]

A 40kWh Model S strikes me as a dumb idea. Especially all those years ago.

 

[SmartElectric]

A 40kWh Model S strikes me as a dumb idea. Especially all those years ago.

Anyone who owned an EV in 2013 knows the average kWh storage was near 20 at that time, when Tesla was offering 40 60 and 85. My Smart was 17.6, volt was less, Leaf was 24.

Sure 40 looks small today, but it was far more than anyone else shipped in any reasonable quantity on 2012 and 2013.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Anyone who owned an EV in 2013 knows the average kWh storage was near 20 at that time, when Tesla was offering 40 60 and 85. My Smart was 17.6, volt was less, Leaf was 24.

Sure 40 looks small today, but it was far more than anyone else shipped in any reasonable quantity on 2012 and 2013.

Anyone who owned an EV in 2013 knows the average kWh storage was near 20 at that time, when Tesla was offering 40 60 and 85. My Smart was 17.6, volt was less, Leaf was 24.

Sure 40 looks small today, but it was far more than anyone else shipped in any reasonable quantity on 2012 and 2013.

That only goes to show how far out ahead Tesla was. In fact, in self-set standards, and in what they were trying to do.

In 2013 they were deep in a fight against "electric cars don't have enough range to be practical". You'll recall the NYC times story about a Model S supposedly running out of charge and needed to get towed? Why risk giving tools like that real ammo to run with that sort of story/agenda?

Even if you could convince customers that it's a good idea to chop off 1/3 of the vehicle's range to reduce the price by 1/6, you'd be putting out all those vehicles that lacked range to properly use your planned SC network. That sets up a legacy issue where you either have rethink and replan your network grid size to fit those vehicles, or you throw a slice of customers under the bus and greatly tarnish your crown jewel, a huge competitive advantage that put you several years ahead of your coming competition, that you've sunk so much capital in.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Anyone who owned an EV in 2013 knows the average kWh storage was near 20 at that time, when Tesla was offering 40 60 and 85. My Smart was 17.6, volt was less, Leaf was 24.

Sure 40 looks small today, but it was far more than anyone else shipped in any reasonable quantity on 2012 and 2013.

40 is still small for a car the size of the Model S though. The old version also didn't have as efficient a drivetrain as the current one.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I am a little worried that the $35k Model 3 will go the same route as the $50k Model S and that there is a chance that Tesla will only make a handful of them before stating that there was no market for it (this happened to the 40kWh Model S).

On the other hand, I think there is a much larger market for the $35 Model 3 and that there are fewer (if any) technical issues with this model, as they seemed to have with the 40kWh Model S.

I don't think the claim of low demand will work this time around because it's very obvious the demand is much higher this time around. They may however be forced to raise the price if they can't get the production costs under control. Of course, Elon has a lot of crow to eat if that happens.

 

[MikeBur]

This is the issue. Elon didn't say they'd come up with other versions to cut in line in front of the $35k car. When will it stop or will it ever stop. It seems clear that no $35k vehicle will ever be made until they can't sell every higher priced option they can think of. That will include AWD, performance, upgraded interiors, etc, etc. "Early 2019" seems highly questionable.

AWD was pushed AHEAD of SR.

? 10k/wk in next two months? Even Elon doesn't make a claim like that. Do you mean in 2 years? Sounds like he might be hedging on ever doing 10k/wk. Sales may not support it. At this rate, the Model Y may be coming out before then and they'll shift production focus to that car.

Most states do not have incentives BTW.

I’m not sure what you disagree with. Perhaps you’re confusing disagree with “dislike your answer”?

I thought it would be good to explain the realities based upon experience. You appear to be interpreting this as a justification. I suggest you re-read the post as the intent was to show trade off options that might accelerate delivery given the pragmatic reality today.

We appear to completely agree on your first paragraph: more expensive configs will be sold first. This was even more pronounced with signature models on pr3vious Teslas.

No where did I justify this was ok, more than this is not unexpected given history.

I showed AWD pushed ahead of RWD SR, I also believe AWD SR will come before RWD SR. This is my belief, you can dislike my belief - it is mine and based on empirical historical examples, you can believe something else. That’s the intent of discussion and debate. You cannot disagree that my belief is my belief though

I fully admit my belief of 10k/wk to be aggressive months - the earnings clarification today says to/wk in Q2: Tesla clarifies comments about Model 3 production ramp – no need for new battery line for 2,500 units per week.

Nowhere did I say the majority of states have incentives and nowhere were any of those comprehended. Rather I explicitly called out the assumption none were considered.
The list and details appear to be here: Vehicle Incentives
This is not comprehensive, eg WA state has sales tax exemption for first 32k of purchase cost. Again, not the majority, though not insignificant.

Hope this clarifies.

 

[MikeBur]

I think people are just disgusted, after waiting 2 years, at getting shoved to the back of the line (in the case of SR waiters) and denied most, it not all, of the tax credit benefit.
The way Tesla is doing this move stealthily (just shuffling estimates around, without announcing a clear strategy) is exactly the same way they handled Alacantra-gate, and IMO really gives a bad impression of the company.

Based on personal experience, and i dont like saying it, though Tesla is well-known for overly-optimistic estimations... they take on audacious goals and eventually delive on 90% of the promises, though later than predicted (“Elon time”) and often in a circuitous manner with little in the way of clarifying statements for you to make informed decisions..
Saying all that, Tesla creates great cars that are way better than all current competition, and their service teams are second to none and EVERYONE cares. This extends to TMC posters, and whilst there’s varying levels of critique we all want to help those who want helping.

 

[MikeBur]

My objective with the 3 was always a $35k Tesla for the price of a decently optioned Civic (with full federal tax credit). It's what I lined up for hours outside on a cold Seattle 3/31/2016 morning to make a deposit toward. My wife never really wanted the car but tolerated my enthusiasm for an "affordable" Tesla and was willing to give it a go. She's always wanted us to go the SUV route, but we can't afford an X. Our second kid will be here by summer, so we need a slightly larger car to replace our ILX before then, which I was planning on being the 3.

But other than the latest delay that pushed me to an estimated delivery of early 2019 for SR and AWD, here's another factor for me deciding to cancel - I got to experience a LR Model 3 a few weeks ago for a few hours - an experience I am super grateful for - and thought the car was really good, but not great. In my opinion, it just doesn't feel like it's worth $50k or more. Yeah it's a nice looking EV with an awesome glass roof and sound system, but the interior materials - from the leatherish seats, plastics, fake wood, piano center console, and even carpet/floor mats, came across as kind of underwhelming. My gut tells me that the LR RWD PUP should be the $35k car, and Tesla should find a way to beef up that baseline to increase their margins for higher priced versions (better interior materials, AWD, etc). This kinda made me wonder if something less than the LR RWD PUP is something I'd want to spend $35k on, and I ultimately decided that it wasn't.

Sad to hear, though one expectation you may not be fully comprehending is the pricing and trim levels relative to other EVs. My expectation was relative to a Bolt or new Leaf and based on my RWD LR PUP 3, I believ3 the RWD SR base car will be extremely competitive even without fed tax credit, and wipe the floor with them with confident prediction of w-3k tax credit still existing
It’s later than expected though, from experience, you’ll never look back if/when you get one..

 

[MikeBur]

As someone who wants SR + PUP + AWD, I'm really hoping the timing with respect to the tax credit ends up being tax credit = AWD (SR or LR), rather than tax credit = LR.

Of course, best case would be tax credit = any config, but that doesn't seem likely.

If you’re “late 2018” then you likely will be 3750 fed tax credit, and 32k of the post-trade in sales price will be tax free as the wa ev sales tax exemption looks like it’s passed

 

[MikeBur]

Then we SR reservation holders are just publicity for financing and tech bytes. Perhaps they are looking for us to eventually cancel anyway. What a bait and switch scam! I'm so frustrated.

The SR RWD base 3 will be released, though I would expect late this year at earliest. I would also 3xpect a lot of these to be upgraded to EAP which I believe will significantly increase profitability

 

[MikeBur]

That’s exactly me.
If they had said they’re introducing a $49,000 car that would have been fine. But Elon said $35,000. Now it’s two years later and he’s letting everyone jump the two year old line if they cough up any more dough.
I do wonder if this was Elon’s plan all along. Get the hype and interest but sell a much more expensive car.

Elon has lost credibility. Betrayed trust of those who reserved early. Why believe him now that the SR will be available in 2019 or ever. What if they really plan to string people along, never produce the base model or raise the price.
It’s not the delay it’s letting others cut the line that is so bothersome.
The website still says 12-18 months for a brand new reservation. Is that true? My two year old reservation has a minimum of 12 months to go. Seems little advantage to have $1000 tied up to hold a place in line if I keep getting moved to the back of the line. I might as well reserve if or when they actually make a $35,000 model 3.

I went shopping this week. Looked at Honda clarity, 2018 leaf, bolt. There are some good choices. If I get a decent 2-3 year lease I can come back and see what Tesla is promising then. Model Y. FSD by then?

I understand your perspective, though my advice would be to keep the deposit on the 3 as a hedge to see if Tesla do something crafty with the quarter before the 200k limit is reached. You might end up with your 35k car with 7.5k off - though it’s a definite hedge.
If this isn’t something you’d want/can take a risk on, I’d just get the other Ev as you say. Micro-analyzing changes and opine is obviously causing angst and an infinite amount of dislikes won’t reduce that

 

[MikeBur]

Fair point. I should revise it to be “$50,000 minimum for the first 12 months of production.” Even so it would have prevented me from making a deposit, which is sort of my litmus test for whether or not this was handled professionally with the information they had on hand.

I am indeed emotional to a degree. Monday I was genuinely excited to hear the Q4 conference call to get some color on the ramp. My internal target was to get a car by June so I could drive it to Arizona for an annual gathering, which included my buffer against the mytesla account page showing a delivery of standard range by February of 2018.

To be honest 2017 was a very difficult year for me and regardless of how silly it is, the Model 3 was what I was keeping as a positive turn for 2018. That rug was just pulled out from under me. It stings.

Sorry to hear. It does suck, and one thing I’ve found with Tesla is you have to judge based on reality, not the tweets and the events. Tesla assumes raving fans, and based on the Roadster, S and X, that these fans are well-attuned to judging schedule, feature, capability and quality considerations. IMO, it’s good that previous owners are receiving 3s because they are familiar with the initial expectations, missing functionality and often work as beta testers. The wider population expecting Model 3 are going to be a lot less tolerant of these issues and have a lot less price flexibility to offset the current margins to ship the car.
I have a Model 3 which is my wife’s car. It’s her first Tesla and whilst she’s now using me as proxy Tesla support for a number of issues, she’s ecstatic with it overall. This gives me a lot of hope as she’s my proxy for a first-time ev owner.

Good luck, and I hope this year is a lot better. I would still kee the 1k deposit on as I have some hope the RWD SR will be this year for 1st day reservists

 

[OCR1]

I also put the deposit down on the first day because of the promise of a $35K car less the $7,500 credit. Now I'm looking at either waiting another year, or buying a $54K car. I sat in the car in Fashion Island and just wasn't that excited. The interior is OK, but my 8 year old Lexus LS460, which I'll be lucky to get $20K for, is a lot nicer. My main motivation for buying the Tesla was the carpool lane (Southern California) and the tax credit. At this point the carpool lane is less than 2 years from expiring, and the $7,500 credit is most likely $3,750 at best if we wait around for the SR model. And now the carpool lane sticker goes away if I apply for the CA rebate, so it's either one or the other. A lot has changed since I placed my deposit.

Once the M3 costs $54K I don't feel like it has enough of a price difference with the Model S to make sense. It may make more sense to buy a used S at this point.

 

[Reeler]

I cancelled my Model 3 order after Tesla added a year of delay.

I think the Hyundai Kona electric will arrive before I would get a $35K Model 3. They are already taking reservations in S Korea for the car so I bet you can get one in about a year. It is a SUV which I prefer over a sedan. It certainly will have the full tax break.

I am tired of this silicon snake oil Tesla is peddling.

 

[SmartElectric]

Huh..if you're willing to settle for a Kona, just get a Leaf. They'll be available in quantity in March following the first set of reservation holders .

 

[sreams]

I also put the deposit down on the first day because of the promise of a $35K car less the $7,500 credit. Now I'm looking at either waiting another year, or buying a $54K car.

Where fo you get $54K from? If you were planning to get a bare-bones Model 3, then the $49K Model 3 is as close to bare-bones (which is what you wanted) as you can get right now. If you are adding $5K for AP, then you need to add the same $5K to the $35K base model.

 

[Qbenjamin]

Funny how I mentioned that from a business perspective, it would make sense that Tesla only does the builds for LR and then AWD before production of the SR. So many people disagreed with my comment and said how "Tesla was going to start production on the SR version" to keep their $35K base promise...

This is a business at the end of the day, and if I were them, I'd keep production focused on the highest profit margin vehicle for as long as I could.

 

[OCR1]

Where fo you get $54K from? If you were planning to get a bare-bones Model 3, then the $49K Model 3 is as close to bare-bones (which is what you wanted) as you can get right now. If you are adding $5K for AP, then you need to add the same $5K to the $35K base model.

When we placed our deposits 2 years ago all we knew was that the car had a base price of $35K. Nobody knew at the time that:

1) The LR battery would be the only battery produced during the first year
2) A premium interior would be the only interior offered during the first year
3) Only black would be offered without an additional fee
4) The federal tax credit would likely go away or be cut in half before the first $35K car was ever produced

While I expected there to be some options that I would want, which would drive the price up a bit, I did not anticipate being forced to spend $54K to get the most basic model offered plus the AP. I just don't think the car is worth that much. It's not that big of a deal for Tesla to hold my $1,000 deposit, so I'll probably just sit tight and wait and see what happens. But I'm just not excited about paying over $50K for a Model 3 right now.