Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[dm33]

When we placed our deposits 2 years ago all we knew was that the car had a base price of $35K. Nobody knew at the time that:

1) The LR battery would be the only battery produced during the first year
2) A premium interior would be the only interior offered during the first year
3) Only black would be offered without an additional fee
4) The federal tax credit would likely go away or be cut in half before the first $35K car was ever produced

While I expected there to be some options that I would want, which would drive the price up a bit, I did not anticipate being forced to spend $54K to get the most basic model offered plus the AP. I just don't think the car is worth that much. It's not that big of a deal for Tesla to hold my $1,000 deposit, so I'll probably just sit tight and wait and see what happens. But I'm just not excited about paying over $50K for a Model 3 right now.

Agreed.
No one knew that they would release an AWD version and have it cut in line before the $35k would be available.
The Model 3 looks really cool and I've love to be in a BEV. The first Model 3s arrived in my area Friday. Look nice, but realized I was looking at a $57.5k car ($49k + $5k EAP + 1k red + 1k destination + 1.5k wheels).
I've been looking at a Honda Clarity for $33.6k but you get full $7500 rebate, making it $26 or $27k w destination.
I could buy two Honda Clarity's and have money left over for a partial lease of a LEAF for the price of a Model 3. (We spent $5k total for a 2yr LEAF lease. Screaming deal.)
Its nice, but I'm not sure its that nice.
If I wanted an almost $60k car I could have bought a Model S long ago.

 

[RedOctober]

I cancelled my Model 3 order after Tesla added a year of delay.

I think the Hyundai Kona electric will arrive before I would get a $35K Model 3. They are already taking reservations in S Korea for the car so I bet you can get one in about a year. It is a SUV which I prefer over a sedan. It certainly will have the full tax break.

I am tired of this silicon snake oil Tesla is peddling.

Well looks like we won’t be seeing you on the Tesla MC forums anymore. Enjoy the Hyundai forums.

 

[Matias]

What happens, when Tesla launches Model 3 Performance? Will it again be delivered before RWD SR version?

 

[gregincal]

I could buy two Honda Clarity's and have money left over for a partial lease of a LEAF for the price of a Model 3. (We spent $5k total for a 2yr LEAF lease. Screaming deal.)

And you could drive each car one after another until they all ran out of battery and still not get as far as with the Model 3 LR. The Honda Clarity range is like a bad joke. I think you'd be far better off just buying a used Leaf.

 

[dm33]

And you could drive each car one after another until they all ran out of battery and still not get as far as with the Model 3 LR. The Honda Clarity range is like a bad joke. I think you'd be far better off just buying a used Leaf.

Clarity is PHEV, not a BEV. 47 mile range handles most commuter uses. Its an efficient ICE after that. Can't seriously do a road trip in any BEV other than a Tesla because of the lack of a high speed charge network. Even CHAdeMO isn't fast enough even if it were widespread.

 

[gregincal]

Clarity is PHEV, not a BEV. 47 mile range handles most commuter uses. Its an efficient ICE after that. Can't seriously do a road trip in any BEV other than a Tesla because of the lack of a high speed charge network. Even CHAdeMO isn't fast enough even if it were widespread.

There is both a PHEV and a BEV version of the Honda Clarity. I was assuming we were talking about the BEV version, otherwise there are a ton of crappy PHEVs you can buy. The problem with PHEVs is that it isn't just about the range. Anything but the most gentle acceleration fires up the gasoline engine even if you are 5 feet from your garage. The BEV version has a stellar range of 80 miles for a brand new offering!

 

[dm33]

There is both a PHEV and a BEV version of the Honda Clarity. I was assuming we were talking about the BEV version, otherwise there are a ton of crappy PHEVs you can buy. The problem with PHEVs is that it isn't just about the range. Anything but the most gentle acceleration fires up the gasoline engine even if you are 5 feet from your garage. The BEV version has a stellar range of 80 miles for a brand new offering!

I'm in NC. Fewer choices of BEV and PHEV. I drove the Clarity PHEV (BEV not available here). You can accelerate fairly strong wo the engine kicking on, but it does come on if you stomp on it. The BEV Clarity doesn't seem worth it. Most other PHEVs I've heard of have much less range.

 

[sreams]

While I expected there to be some options that I would want, which would drive the price up a bit, I did not anticipate being forced to spend $54K to get the most basic model offered plus the AP.

Okay. My point was simply that if you are going to compare the base model's and the LR model's prices, you must either add AP to both or not add it to either. So it's $54K vs $40K. Or $49K vs $35K. Saying that you are bummed a car you were hoping would be $35K is only available at $54K is disingenuous.

 

[Catman20009]

I'm a little disappointed and angry as well. I was so depressed for a few days. It was so close I was already imagining myself in the car! But info from the conference call actually gives me a lot of comfort. Understanding better the challenges and plans for their rollout. And it's really a big guess for us all as far as what to do next. Financing a more expensive version of the M3 is more than I'd like to pay but not enough per month to lose too much sleep. AND more importantly it increases the chances of a full $7500 deduction. That will make me especially happy. It's like a cash advance. I'm already benefiting from the 2017 deduction for the solar panels I installed on the roof. Also pulled a 240 line to the garage.

 

[MikeBur]

Understand the disappointment. I have zero regrets spending the extra, though the chance that the long range battery will ever be pushed is near zero - the rest of the cost with options was going to be bought anyway. , and was completely expected by me.

So I looked at it as “enjoy now, with lr battery for a discount of 3250” (vs the negaiive part of me that things I spent ~6k more than I needed).

Good luck with your decision.

 

[MikeBur]

What happens, when Tesla launches Model 3 Performance? Will it again be delivered before RWD SR version?

I would be disappointed too, though unsurprised. If they can charge, say 15-20k, more per car for likely 5k cost adder, you’ve got to consider this.

 

[DanL3]

So sometimes I wonder if there is a plan to ever do the standard battery.
If they only do the larger battery and sell that until it will not sell any more at the production rate they are running then they could continue making all cars with that battery and just lock customers out of the last 20-25kwh of battery capacity for customers that only pay for the standard battery.

Yes, the bigger battery costs more, but making all the cars the same with only a software change is easier for production in both the Gigafactory and in Fremont.

Also then they could sell some customers up later and give them the LR battery for a price. That could be done with only a software update. This all could make sense for Tesla and make them more money in the long run.

Battery sizes on the S have gone up over time so I would expect standard on the 3, in say 2021, may become 70kwh with LR becoming 85kwh.

 

[dm33]

So sometimes I wonder if there is a plan to ever do the standard battery.
If they only do the larger battery and sell that until it will not sell any more at the production rate they are running then they could continue making all cars with that battery and just lock customers out of the last 20-25kwh of battery capacity for customers that only pay for the standard battery.

Yes, the bigger battery costs more, but making all the cars the same with only a software change is easier for production in both the Gigafactory and in Fremont.

Also then they could sell some customers up later and give them the LR battery for a price. That could be done with only a software update. This all could make sense for Tesla and make them more money in the long run.

Battery sizes on the S have gone up over time so I would expect standard on the 3, in say 2021, may become 70kwh with LR becoming 85kwh.

The cost structure of the Model 3 won't allow them to throw in extra batteries and have it software limited. They did do this with EAP, but I think they assume most everyone will sooner or later get that enabled. The SR battery should be sufficient for most people so I doubt that would spend the extra money into a vehicle they can't make profitably to start with.

I wonder if they'll simply decide to discontinue it if they can never make it profitably.

 

[R-123]

I don't really get people saying that Tesla will never make 35k SR version. It's a bit contradicting with everyone saying that battery prices are dropping all the time, that EVs will become cheaper and will eventually reach price parity with ICE. If the later is going to happen then you WILL get 35k SR eventually. If that is not supposed to happen then the whole EV revolution won't happen.

 

[dm33]

I don't really get people saying that Tesla will never make 35k SR version. It's a bit contradicting with everyone saying that battery prices are dropping all the time, that EVs will become cheaper and will eventually reach price parity with ICE. If the later is going to happen then you WILL get 35k SR eventually. If that is not supposed to happen then the whole EV revolution won't happen.

If Tesla can produce as many vehicles as they can make and sell them for more than $35k then they may not ever actually make a 35k car. They can stay premium and let some other manufacturer sell lower priced EVs. Apple doesn’t try to be the cheapest phone maker.
And if it takes time for prices to drop, it may not be 2019 but much later before a 35k Tesla is profitable. Maybe it requires the lessons learned that Elon mentioned and it will be the model y.

 

[dsvick]

So sometimes I wonder if there is a plan to ever do the standard battery.
If they only do the larger battery and sell that until it will not sell any more at the production rate they are running then they could continue making all cars with that battery and just lock customers out of the last 20-25kwh of battery capacity for customers that only pay for the standard battery.

Yes, the bigger battery costs more, but making all the cars the same with only a software change is easier for production in both the Gigafactory and in Fremont.

Also then they could sell some customers up later and give them the LR battery for a price. That could be done with only a software update. This all could make sense for Tesla and make them more money in the long run.

Battery sizes on the S have gone up over time so I would expect standard on the 3, in say 2021, may become 70kwh with LR becoming 85kwh.

No, they are not just software locking the batteries. The reported weights of the LR and SR are different: Tesla Model 3 production specs revealed: up to 310 miles range, 140 mph top speed, and more

And, the architecture of the batteries is different: Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

 

[DanL3]

The cost structure of the Model 3 won't allow them to throw in extra batteries and have it software limited. They did do this with EAP, but I think they assume most everyone will sooner or later get that enabled. The SR battery should be sufficient for most people so I doubt that would spend the extra money into a vehicle they can't make profitably to start with.

I wonder if they'll simply decide to discontinue it if they can never make it profitably.

Yes, I expect there is a reasonable probability that they discontinue it. They may ship only a minimal number of software limited cars to be able to say that they did meet the $35k price and then discontinue it. Those minimal number of SR cars may be a smaller battery as originally designed or they may be software limited LR batteries. I can see where the software limit may be lower cost if the total number of SR cars is limited.

 

[DanL3]

No, they are not just software locking the batteries. The reported weights of the LR and SR are different: Tesla Model 3 production specs revealed: up to 310 miles range, 140 mph top speed, and more

And, the architecture of the batteries is different: Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

Thanks for the link to the description of the earlier design. That is very helpful.

However that design is not yet in production. It may be because of cost/profitability, or it may be because of some unknown technical issue. It may just be that the 50kwh design is not giving a reliable 220 mile range. ( I personally expect it may be more like 200miles)

In anycase. I expect that Tesla will learn so much from the LR cars now on the road, that the SR battery design will have some changes before a SR car goes into production.

 

[182RG]

Apple doesn’t try to be the cheapest phone maker.

They tried it with the iPhone 5C. Discovered the juice wasn't worth the squeeze....

 

[206er]

When we placed our deposits 2 years ago all we knew was that the car had a base price of $35K. Nobody knew at the time that:

1) The LR battery would be the only battery produced during the first year
2) A premium interior would be the only interior offered during the first year
3) Only black would be offered without an additional fee
4) The federal tax credit would likely go away or be cut in half before the first $35K car was ever produced

While I expected there to be some options that I would want, which would drive the price up a bit, I did not anticipate being forced to spend $54K to get the most basic model offered plus the AP. I just don't think the car is worth that much. It's not that big of a deal for Tesla to hold my $1,000 deposit, so I'll probably just sit tight and wait and see what happens. But I'm just not excited about paying over $50K for a Model 3 right now.

While the timing of my second kid's arrival was a huge factor in my cancellation (not a variable at the time of reservation), the repeated delays and now potential loss of the full federal tax credit for the SR version was another very big reason for me to cancel. Almost like Tesla is leveraging the full federal tax credit as a $7,500 "thank you" to it's existing owners. Cool gift, but lame for someone like me who was banking on it as a decisive variable.