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But this is using examples from the well established, saturated ICE market to predict the response to new disruptive EV technology. Tesla can do what they like. There is no rule that says the 3 has to maintain a respectful distance from the S and the X, although the continued cash flow would probably be handy in the short term. :wink:
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I think they are about to create the "respectful distance", hence the P100D that will likely be announced soon.
Absolutely. While production on the 3 ramps up they can still push the tech and sales through the S and X. But I think we will see the 3 reach as close to the S as the X is in terms of performance.
The models will end up very close. Just cheaper.
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I wonder if the P100D will be announced soon to help stop S and X owners going "WTF!?" at the 3 launch.
The models will end up very close. Just cheaper.
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I wonder if the P100D will be announced soon to help stop S and X owners going "WTF!?" at the 3 launch.
Absolutely. While production on the 3 ramps up they can still push the tech and sales through the S and X. But I think we will see the 3 reach as close to the S as the X is in terms of performance.
The models will end up very close. Just cheaper.
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I wonder if the P100D will be announced soon to help stop S and X owners going "WTF!?" at the 3 launch.
Yes. I feel like Tesla is going to roll-out updates to Models S and X to help "placate" the early adopters. P100D (and maybe even 110 or 120?), a big, new software update (comment recently made by JB Straubel), and perhaps even a refreshed design for Model S.
I do not however feel like they are going to announce any of this at the Model 3 launch as it will subtract from the attention I'm sure they wish to draw with the "main-stream" vehicle.
Lex
Member
The Motley Fools updated their article, the quote was from August (before Autopilot release)
Absolutely. While production on the 3 ramps up they can still push the tech and sales through the S and X. But I think we will see the 3 reach as close to the S as the X is in terms of performance.
The models will end up very close. Just cheaper.
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I wonder if the P100D will be announced soon to help stop S and X owners going "WTF!?" at the 3 launch.
You continue to ignore that simply because of the larger size the Model S and X will be attractive for buyers who need or want a larger car. Not to mention more space for batteries.
If Tesla wants to they can differentiate the Model S on longer range alone since we know many people will pay a premium for range.
It depends how Tesla implement the 20% size reduction on the 3
One option is to shrink the whole car (although probably not in terms of height). The mini-me S; makes sense in terms of a proven design/familiar processes (though in steel rather than aluminium).
Plenty of current S and X owners are in the great position of being able to afford the 3 as well. It will be interesting to hear their comparisons between the vehicles (newer 3 tech vs mature S tech) and which gets more use.
In terms of upgrades, I think a mini-me model 3 will increase calls for "why can't the S do this?" and "why can't the 3 do this?" which would only serve to narrow the functional differences between them.
The other 20% option is to change the proportions of the 3 which would help to retain more of the cabin and battery volumes. Not every part of the car has to shrink by 20% in order to achieve 20% overall.
Again this narrows the gap between the vehicles in terms of performance.
One option is to shrink the whole car (although probably not in terms of height). The mini-me S; makes sense in terms of a proven design/familiar processes (though in steel rather than aluminium).
Plenty of current S and X owners are in the great position of being able to afford the 3 as well. It will be interesting to hear their comparisons between the vehicles (newer 3 tech vs mature S tech) and which gets more use.
In terms of upgrades, I think a mini-me model 3 will increase calls for "why can't the S do this?" and "why can't the 3 do this?" which would only serve to narrow the functional differences between them.
The other 20% option is to change the proportions of the 3 which would help to retain more of the cabin and battery volumes. Not every part of the car has to shrink by 20% in order to achieve 20% overall.
Again this narrows the gap between the vehicles in terms of performance.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
The Tesla Model ≡ will not be a 5/8th scale Model S. Nor will it be an econobox. No one should expect it to be a substandard vehicle that does not compare favorably with 3-Series, A4, ATS, IS, Q50, TLX, or XE. It is far more likely that the Model ≡ will 'kill' sales for 5-Series, A6, CTS, and E-Class than Model S.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
but...but.....I wanted to stand in line and plop down money for an overpriced Leaf.
I'm confused by your use of the term "econobox"....
(Not really, I just love watching a single, solitary person stand up against all common sense and try to tell us that the word "econobox" doesn't conjure up images of terrible little cars.....
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Yeah. I remember in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when so many driveways in Beverly Hills suddenly began to sport brand spanking new Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti vehicles that were parked alongside 8-to-12 year old BMW and Mercedes-Benz vehicles. I expect to see a whole bunch MORE of Tesla vehicles in that part of town than are already very apparent when the Model ≡ arrives.
I think that's going a little far. There's no way I would have bought a Model S if the Model 3 had been available. The Model S is too large for me, but I wanted a Tesla so much I was willing to overlook that.
There are people who want a larger car that will continue to buy a Model S, but the Model 3 will also attract away people who would have bought a Model S if it didn't exist.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Yeah. I think the point is that Tesla Motors would have sold just as many of the Model S the past three years, even if the Model ≡ had been offered beside it. The might not have sold a Model S to you, but there was undoubtedly someone in line behind you who would have. I expect the same to be true in coming years as well. People will buy what they want, need, or can afford. BMW would certainly love to be able to sell 15,000 more of the 7-Series per year to take a firm hold on 1st or 2nd place in class on a perennial basis... But not if it meant the 3-Series would no longer command its division of the market. Look at the difference in sales between BMW 7-Series and Mercedes-Benz S-Class, then compare that to the difference between 3-Series and C-Class.
Lex
Member
There will soon be a Tesla the size and price for everyone, or else something
from Ford (did they say 17 models in 2020 ??) or someone else.
Electric cars are both thrilling, and so much better for the air we breathe,
energy utilization, etc. We just need to have lots and lots of affordable ones.
#channelingelon #faketweet
from Ford (did they say 17 models in 2020 ??) or someone else.
Electric cars are both thrilling, and so much better for the air we breathe,
energy utilization, etc. We just need to have lots and lots of affordable ones.
#channelingelon #faketweet
Hmm yes, it's those words again - thrilling - compelling.
In order to get noticed that's code for "performance" and "tech", so Tesla will push both as much as it can in the 3. Nothing new. Just repeating the trick that worked with the S.
I think/ imagine that the S and X will be moved to 90kWh and 100kWh so that the 3 can occupy the 70 and 80kWh slots. The 3 would probably need taller/wider cells to achieve this, and with a smaller CdA, who knows? Could it get 270 miles EPA from a 70 pack? (Elon doesn't strike me as the sort of man who would be satisfied with a "passing grade")
He has said that the 3 will have the D option, which brings Ludicrous into the mix.
Certainly the S and X will continue to offer more space and a bit more range. But is that compelling enough? For some, certainly. But in sufficient numbers?
Interesting times.
In order to get noticed that's code for "performance" and "tech", so Tesla will push both as much as it can in the 3. Nothing new. Just repeating the trick that worked with the S.
I think/ imagine that the S and X will be moved to 90kWh and 100kWh so that the 3 can occupy the 70 and 80kWh slots. The 3 would probably need taller/wider cells to achieve this, and with a smaller CdA, who knows? Could it get 270 miles EPA from a 70 pack? (Elon doesn't strike me as the sort of man who would be satisfied with a "passing grade")
He has said that the 3 will have the D option, which brings Ludicrous into the mix.
Certainly the S and X will continue to offer more space and a bit more range. But is that compelling enough? For some, certainly. But in sufficient numbers?
Interesting times.
I don't see any reason to cripple the range of the 3 to accommodate the S. If Tesla really cares about sustainable transport replacement, they won't artificially cripple the 3 when it comes to range. If it's circumstantial due to the S getting a more dense battery pack that won't fit the 3, that's a different story.
I agree with this but not the "true S killer" idea. I am planning to put in a reservation for the Model Ξ and (depending on the specs) may trade in my beloved S90D. I'd prefer a smaller vehicle if I won't have to sacrifice cabin comfort.
I haven't checked but I expect there is a thread claiming that the Model X would cannibalize Model S sales. However, my purchase of the Model S was after holding a Model X reservation for almost a year.
Likewise, I think that there will be increased sales for all models when the Model Ξ is introduced. The generated interest in Teslas will result in folks choosing a model that will best suit them.
