Model 3 will have less features than the S. Which one would not make it?

[LargeHamCollider]

Back up camera is required by law to be in all new vehicles by 2018.

Tough to argue with that, I'll scratch it from my list.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same 259hp motor is used but Tesla won't let you use all that power or it would be as fast as an S70.

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I can deal with having none of those, and if there were no supercharging I wouldn't buy it. Seriously. I couldn't care less if it had speed limiting cameras/speed warning, or rain sensing wipers/auto headlights. I'm not too lazy to turn on the fricking lights or turn on the windshield wipers. I turn on the windshield and lights on my car now, it's not an effort to do so. How on Earth do people think are must have features these days? Even non-luxury GM cars have 4G now.

Dude, read the whole post.

No one is saying there will be no supercharging or LTE, I just doubt it will be included with the base price. I could be wrong.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I would like to put some perspective into this conversation. I hope to do that by adding some honest opinion along with some oversimplified numbers.

My Perspective:
Current Car:
I am a third year Civil Engineering student with a 2002 Honda Accord LX with failing black paint. Though nothing much to look at, my vehicle has fully electric mirrors, windows, and cruise control. My roommate also has a 2002 Honda Accord, but a higher trim package. In essence, his car only varies in that it has different cloth on the seats, a larger radio, and a sunroof. Adjusted for inflation, my vehicle would cost $25,000 new, today. We both expect a relatively basic Model 3 to completely surpass this.

It will surpass it. But not with creature comforts. The driveline is what will blow your Honda out of the water.

Model S is Only a Mule:
The Model S dual motor version is said by Elon Musk to contain a very similar motor in the front as will be used in the base RWD Model 3. I believe that this was stated either at the D Event or at the next Earnings Call. This is genius, as it means that millions of miles of testing will have already been done.
Another technology that is stated by Elon as being a very important part of Model 3 is the Autopilot. Elon believes that this is a matter or safety, and that every vehicle should have it once it’s ready. Now for my opinion. I believe that the reason the Model S Autopilot hardware suite is so sparse compared to competitors is that the planned recipient is Model 3. Otherwise, the additional programming necessary to use only one long distance radar, and a single camera, could have been saved. I trust that the engineers understood this, and intended to have a competent code written for a minimalist hardware suite, so that when money starts pouring into other parts of the Model 3 program, one of the more expensive parts is already battle tested.

The Model 3 will need at least the front radar to be standard, to allow for autonomous emergency braking, needed in the Euro NCAP testing to get five stars. I think most of the other autopilot hardware will be optional.

User Controls:
I recall possible discussion of Elon saying there will only be one screen in Model 3, which I thought sounded terrible until I gave more thought to it. I could see Tesla ordering their own non-standard aspect ratio screen that starts in front of the driver and extends to the center. In front of the driver could be a section with basic speed, navigation, and temperature, etc. Media and climate controls could be positioned toward the center so that the driver or passenger could reach it. In other words, half the parts with the same function. I’m sure that if that is in fact the route Tesla goes down, it will be done in an attractive way.

I recall there being a "might" in there.

I think Tesla will definitely have something like a 15" monitor instead of the 17" monitor in the S/X. Then the question is if regular dials for power, speed, remaining capacity, etc will be cheaper than a LCD. I think not, but there's nothing wrong with Tesla keeping an open mind.

 

[bwa]

I can deal with having none of those, and if there were no supercharging I wouldn't buy it. Seriously. I couldn't care less if it had speed limiting cameras/speed warning, or rain sensing wipers/auto headlights. I'm not too lazy to turn on the fricking lights or turn on the windshield wipers. I turn on the windshield and lights on my car now, it's not an effort to do so. How on Earth do people think are must have features these days? Even non-luxury GM cars have 4G now.

I agree about auto-wipers. Anyway, I use Rain-X so the auto wiper function is wrong anyway: I always just turn them off, and every few minutes in heavy traffic where the rain doesn't just fly off by itself hit the wash button in the single-wipe position and everything is better than having the wipers on.

WTH is 4G? You mean my car is a smartphone? Will it help me find a mate, or tell me what my next calendar function is, or schedule my appointments for me? If not, why does it need 4G? Maps? I already have 5 great apps on my iPhone, including TomTom which has a few gig for offline navigation (and I subscribe to traffic and it catches all sorts of things the other maps don't). It even tells me the speed limit on most streets. A freeking cheapie car doesn't need anything for networking except a smartphone mount on the dash so I can use my iPhone/Android to do that for me without looking away from traffic. Unless it understands English commands for replacing my smartphone for in-car use, which would be awesome, but I haven't seen that on any car to date. I'd be 100% fine if the Model 3 didn't have any Internet.


Ok, I'm going to go through all the features my current car has and think if it could be dropped for a cheap electric car:

* Remote key unlock as I walk up to it. I find this is a must in my market of wanting to be in a more luxury part of my life as I get older. But realistically, I found out that other very cheap cars these days have this feature too. It is so amazingly useful that it is virtually required at this point. But:
* Very very hard to copy key that is absolutely required to make it work. This is very important in the rougher neighborhoods purchasers of the Model 3 will have to sometimes deal with. If you have a Honda, you have to budget time every time you want to drive it to walk around for a few blocks looking for where the local kids parked it after they took it for a joyride, because its keys are absolutely useless. I don't think Model 3 drivers will put up with their car being a communal meeting place and vehicle.
* All-window-open before I get into it. It used to be most homes and businesses were near rivers and oceans, because that's where it's easy to sail boats, build bridges, fish, and get fresh water, lumber, and other building materials. There it was relatively cool, and there was fog. These days as the population keeps going up, we're being forced inland, where there is more heat, more sunlight (less fog), and generally speaking, cars will get baking hot. Also more poor people exist that don't have garages to park in. This is more necessary now for a Model 3 owner than it ever was for a Model S owner or any car before today. Sorry, but this is going to continue to be more important, not less important, even for cheap cars. Plus it's free to manufacture if you have a remote entry key fob and electric windows.
* Electric windows. Leaning down and reaching over to get to the other window while driving will kill people. Losing your belongings or getting water damage because you forgot to roll up the back windows will be bad too. Electric windows are the norm.
* Automatic electric seats that move around to your position as you get in and out. I'm used to it by now, and if these exist, it's basically free to have multiple settings for multiple people, but do I need it? Good mechanical levers work great, and everyone knows how to use them. This is the first item I found on my list of things that can be left out of a cheap car.
* Electric mirrors. This is a safety thing. If the mirrors aren't electric, everyone will not adjust the mirrors, and people will die. You can't skimp on this any more. My $1,200 Volvo had electric mirrors. It's free for it to adjust to each driver if everyone has their own key, and cheap if not.
* Volume button on the steering wheel. If the volume knob (yes, I said KNOB) is easy to reach and ONLY HAS ONE FUNCTION, then this absolutely does not have to be on the steering wheel. Savings #2. Volume must be a knob somewhere where you can turn it down FAST (and up quickly too).
* Keyless entry, keyless start, etc.. Free to implement if they already have a key fob. I don't see the point in taking this out of the cheap car artificially. Actually, it's cheaper, since ignition switches that take key fobs are pretty darn expensive pieces of equipment.
* Emergency break. Every car has a mechanical emergency break, so I don't see the point in discussing this.
* Break, Accelerator, Turn Signal. Ditto.
* Interior hood release. Mandatory for security reasons. I could see requiring key fob instead to make it cheaper. Ditto trunk. Savings #3 -- only use key fob to open trunk/frunk rather than other buttons. Of course, need safety exit mechanical exit lever inside each.
* Rain wipe control: I use Rain-X. I'd rather the wipers only go off when I press the button once. For other people I bet 3 speed is just fine.
* Window Washer Wiper system: for cheap, I'd say you could leave this out, but I use it all the time in dusty areas so maybe not, but growing up most the cars we had didn't have this. This could be some real savings. Savings #4.
* Glove box. Need someplace to hold the binder we hand the pigs. Still need that.
* Radio. Savings #5: no radio, only an AUX amp & speakers. Model 3 people are poorer people who have lives that suck, so they need their tunes to keep themselves distracted from their no-use life. Skimping out on sound for these people is often a very bad idea. But some % of Model 3 drivers will be very old grandmas that don't have the mental ability and never had the opportunity to appreciate any kind of music, so I don't know if they want to listen to Listener Supported Radio or not. Focus group this, but I tend toward the Model 3 making "great sound" an option, and only support AUX and Bluetooth, and the Listener Supported radio stations, once that Great Sound is ordered. I could be way off base on this one. A standard upgrade method and mounts for speakers (8 position?) and conduits for wires (to each speaker mount point) for upgrades may be the best way to not actually sell it with good sound but allow the resale value to be OK.
* Air Conditioning. Remember I said poor people are being shoved into the oven of the hot lands? This is a new requirement that all cheap vehicles must have, and must work. It probably should have a thermostat with a Degrees Fahrenheit setting, but not zone control. Zone control doesn't even work on my Mercedes E class equipped with it (analogous to a Model 5 in the BMW series), so why would it suddenly work on some brand new Model 3? Plus, most poor people don't understand zone control anyway (sorry, stereotype but probably true). Savings #6. (Does Model S have zone control? Uhoh I don't even know.)
* Cooled and heated seats. I'm starting to feel like everything is all bad with not having cooled seats. This could be one of the hallmarks of the Tesla Model 3 that it doesn't skimp on cooled seats. But since I don't even think the Model S has that, this can't be counted as a savings if I'm already asking for it to be a new standard feature. I'm not seeing any savings in this area regardless.
* Cup holder. It's just plastic. You're not getting rid of it; you're adding it. Poor people like eating and driving at the same time.
* Cigarette Lighter. Absolutely no one smokes any more -- well, I'd like to believe that. Unfortunately there are some losers who smoke pot, but not if they don't want a DUI. But everybody and their entire family and all their friends need more ports than there are in any car to charge in. No change toward the cheaper, EXCEPT you can get rid of the round cigarette lighter port and replace that with a bunch of power USB ports instead. So that's a lateral move.
* Navigation system. Skip that entirely and provide a smartphone mount in the dash that is really good for the driver to see while driving and reach while driving. Savings #7.
* Clock in the dash. I love my analog clock next to the speedometer. How fast do I need to drive? That fast. Ok, I can go slow, or fast, or whatever, to get the analog clock in the right position. Perfect. Do poor people need to be on time? I don't know. Let's say they don't get a clock in the dash and this is savings #8. But if there's a computer screen, then there's no savings. Since they say it has a computer screen, this isn't a savings then.
* Fog lights. I don't think a cheap car needs fog lights. Savings #8.
* Adaptive mirrors to stop blinding lights. I have no idea how much this costs on my car, so this could be savings #9 not to offer this. Blind drivers don't make good drivers. But if all Model 3's drive themselves, the owners don't need to be able to see. I'll go with savings.
* Sun roof. Completely useless. Savings #10.
* Screens on rear windows instead of standard dark tint. Dark tint is cheaper. Savings #11. Rear window tint instead of screen. Savings #12. But the Model S doesn't have those things so no savings.
* A few extra leather pouches and cubby holes to put things. Poor people still have stuff, so they need holes and cubby holes, but not necessarily as many. Savings #11. Oh wait --- the Model S is notorious for having too few. No savings here.
* Self-retracting door handles. Never do this again without testing it better. Savings #11. Finally.
* Cruise Control. Wait, did you say the Model 3 will be self driving?
* Panoramic roof. Model S offers it as an option, so that is no savings.
* Air suspension. I got so used to this in all the tractor-trailer trucks I drove, and now the cars I drive, that I think of it as mandatory. But, apparently, it's not that common in passenger cars. So, let's go with Savings #12. It's about $5,000 so this isn't a small item.

I tell you what. I'm having a seriously hard time coming up with savings. The dozen or so things I could think of aren't adding up to enough to turn a $75,000 car into a $35,000 car ($40,000 difference). I only identified about $10,000 of stuff. If using steel saves another $10,000, then that's a $55,000 car. If they make the car slightly more compact (less frunk, less trunk), then that's less steel, less weight, less batteries needed to go so far, so that might be another $5,000 or so, and that's $50,000 still, far from the $35,000 to make a small car. Let's say $5,000 of the Model S was the Supercharger network being free: let's take that out. That'll make it a $45,000 car now, but not a $35,000. What if Tesla was charging a lot of margin for the S? Let's say $8,000. Subtract that, and we now have a $37,000 Tesla. They're going to have to find something else to make the car cheaper.

 

[S'toon]

I agree about auto-wipers. Anyway, I use Rain-X so the auto wiper function is wrong anyway: I always just turn them off, and every few minutes in heavy traffic where the rain doesn't just fly off by itself hit the wash button in the single-wipe position and everything is better than having the wipers on.

WTH is 4G? You mean my car is a smartphone? Will it help me find a mate, or tell me what my next calendar function is, or schedule my appointments for me? If not, why does it need 4G? Maps? I already have 5 great apps on my iPhone, including TomTom which has a few gig for offline navigation (and I subscribe to traffic and it catches all sorts of things the other maps don't). It even tells me the speed limit on most streets. A freeking cheapie car doesn't need anything for networking except a smartphone mount on the dash so I can use my iPhone/Android to do that for me without looking away from traffic. Unless it understands English commands for replacing my smartphone for in-car use, which would be awesome, but I haven't seen that on any car to date. I'd be 100% fine if the Model 3 didn't have any Internet.


Ok, I'm going to go through all the features my current car has and think if it could be dropped for a cheap electric car:

* Remote key unlock as I walk up to it. I find this is a must in my market of wanting to be in a more luxury part of my life as I get older. But realistically, I found out that other very cheap cars these days have this feature too. It is so amazingly useful that it is virtually required at this point. But:
* Very very hard to copy key that is absolutely required to make it work. This is very important in the rougher neighborhoods purchasers of the Model 3 will have to sometimes deal with. If you have a Honda, you have to budget time every time you want to drive it to walk around for a few blocks looking for where the local kids parked it after they took it for a joyride, because its keys are absolutely useless. I don't think Model 3 drivers will put up with their car being a communal meeting place and vehicle.
* All-window-open before I get into it. It used to be most homes and businesses were near rivers and oceans, because that's where it's easy to sail boats, build bridges, fish, and get fresh water, lumber, and other building materials. There it was relatively cool, and there was fog. These days as the population keeps going up, we're being forced inland, where there is more heat, more sunlight (less fog), and generally speaking, cars will get baking hot. Also more poor people exist that don't have garages to park in. This is more necessary now for a Model 3 owner than it ever was for a Model S owner or any car before today. Sorry, but this is going to continue to be more important, not less important, even for cheap cars. Plus it's free to manufacture if you have a remote entry key fob and electric windows.
* Electric windows. Leaning down and reaching over to get to the other window while driving will kill people. Losing your belongings or getting water damage because you forgot to roll up the back windows will be bad too. Electric windows are the norm.
* Automatic electric seats that move around to your position as you get in and out. I'm used to it by now, and if these exist, it's basically free to have multiple settings for multiple people, but do I need it? Good mechanical levers work great, and everyone knows how to use them. This is the first item I found on my list of things that can be left out of a cheap car.
* Electric mirrors. This is a safety thing. If the mirrors aren't electric, everyone will not adjust the mirrors, and people will die. You can't skimp on this any more. My $1,200 Volvo had electric mirrors. It's free for it to adjust to each driver if everyone has their own key, and cheap if not.
* Volume button on the steering wheel. If the volume knob (yes, I said KNOB) is easy to reach and ONLY HAS ONE FUNCTION, then this absolutely does not have to be on the steering wheel. Savings #2. Volume must be a knob somewhere where you can turn it down FAST (and up quickly too).
* Keyless entry, keyless start, etc.. Free to implement if they already have a key fob. I don't see the point in taking this out of the cheap car artificially. Actually, it's cheaper, since ignition switches that take key fobs are pretty darn expensive pieces of equipment.
* Emergency break. Every car has a mechanical emergency break, so I don't see the point in discussing this.
* Break, Accelerator, Turn Signal. Ditto.
* Interior hood release. Mandatory for security reasons. I could see requiring key fob instead to make it cheaper. Ditto trunk. Savings #3 -- only use key fob to open trunk/frunk rather than other buttons. Of course, need safety exit mechanical exit lever inside each.
* Rain wipe control: I use Rain-X. I'd rather the wipers only go off when I press the button once. For other people I bet 3 speed is just fine.
* Window Washer Wiper system: for cheap, I'd say you could leave this out, but I use it all the time in dusty areas so maybe not, but growing up most the cars we had didn't have this. This could be some real savings. Savings #4.
* Glove box. Need someplace to hold the binder we hand the pigs. Still need that.
* Radio. Savings #5: no radio, only an AUX amp & speakers. Model 3 people are poorer people who have lives that suck, so they need their tunes to keep themselves distracted from their no-use life. Skimping out on sound for these people is often a very bad idea. But some % of Model 3 drivers will be very old grandmas that don't have the mental ability and never had the opportunity to appreciate any kind of music, so I don't know if they want to listen to Listener Supported Radio or not. Focus group this, but I tend toward the Model 3 making "great sound" an option, and only support AUX and Bluetooth, and the Listener Supported radio stations, once that Great Sound is ordered. I could be way off base on this one. A standard upgrade method and mounts for speakers (8 position?) and conduits for wires (to each speaker mount point) for upgrades may be the best way to not actually sell it with good sound but allow the resale value to be OK.
* Air Conditioning. Remember I said poor people are being shoved into the oven of the hot lands? This is a new requirement that all cheap vehicles must have, and must work. It probably should have a thermostat with a Degrees Fahrenheit setting, but not zone control. Zone control doesn't even work on my Mercedes E class equipped with it (analogous to a Model 5 in the BMW series), so why would it suddenly work on some brand new Model 3? Plus, most poor people don't understand zone control anyway (sorry, stereotype but probably true). Savings #6. (Does Model S have zone control? Uhoh I don't even know.)
* Cooled and heated seats. I'm starting to feel like everything is all bad with not having cooled seats. This could be one of the hallmarks of the Tesla Model 3 that it doesn't skimp on cooled seats. But since I don't even think the Model S has that, this can't be counted as a savings if I'm already asking for it to be a new standard feature. I'm not seeing any savings in this area regardless.
* Cup holder. It's just plastic. You're not getting rid of it; you're adding it. Poor people like eating and driving at the same time.
* Cigarette Lighter. Absolutely no one smokes any more -- well, I'd like to believe that. Unfortunately there are some losers who smoke pot, but not if they don't want a DUI. But everybody and their entire family and all their friends need more ports than there are in any car to charge in. No change toward the cheaper, EXCEPT you can get rid of the round cigarette lighter port and replace that with a bunch of power USB ports instead. So that's a lateral move.
* Navigation system. Skip that entirely and provide a smartphone mount in the dash that is really good for the driver to see while driving and reach while driving. Savings #7.
* Clock in the dash. I love my analog clock next to the speedometer. How fast do I need to drive? That fast. Ok, I can go slow, or fast, or whatever, to get the analog clock in the right position. Perfect. Do poor people need to be on time? I don't know. Let's say they don't get a clock in the dash and this is savings #8. But if there's a computer screen, then there's no savings. Since they say it has a computer screen, this isn't a savings then.
* Fog lights. I don't think a cheap car needs fog lights. Savings #8.
* Adaptive mirrors to stop blinding lights. I have no idea how much this costs on my car, so this could be savings #9 not to offer this. Blind drivers don't make good drivers. But if all Model 3's drive themselves, the owners don't need to be able to see. I'll go with savings.
* Sun roof. Completely useless. Savings #10.
* Screens on rear windows instead of standard dark tint. Dark tint is cheaper. Savings #11. Rear window tint instead of screen. Savings #12. But the Model S doesn't have those things so no savings.
* A few extra leather pouches and cubby holes to put things. Poor people still have stuff, so they need holes and cubby holes, but not necessarily as many. Savings #11. Oh wait --- the Model S is notorious for having too few. No savings here.
* Self-retracting door handles. Never do this again without testing it better. Savings #11. Finally.
* Cruise Control. Wait, did you say the Model 3 will be self driving?
* Panoramic roof. Model S offers it as an option, so that is no savings.
* Air suspension. I got so used to this in all the tractor-trailer trucks I drove, and now the cars I drive, that I think of it as mandatory. But, apparently, it's not that common in passenger cars. So, let's go with Savings #12. It's about $5,000 so this isn't a small item.

I tell you what. I'm having a seriously hard time coming up with savings. The dozen or so things I could think of aren't adding up to enough to turn a $75,000 car into a $35,000 car ($40,000 difference). I only identified about $10,000 of stuff. If using steel saves another $10,000, then that's a $55,000 car. If they make the car slightly more compact (less frunk, less trunk), then that's less steel, less weight, less batteries needed to go so far, so that might be another $5,000 or so, and that's $50,000 still, far from the $35,000 to make a small car. Let's say $5,000 of the Model S was the Supercharger network being free: let's take that out. That'll make it a $45,000 car now, but not a $35,000. What if Tesla was charging a lot of margin for the S? Let's say $8,000. Subtract that, and we now have a $37,000 Tesla. They're going to have to find something else to make the car cheaper.

I think I'm insulted by this post.

 

[wdolson]

From what I've read in several places, the profit on each Model S is around 25%, which makes it approximately $15K-$25K, probably a bit more. I suspect the profit margin on the higher end P85D/P90D are higher than on the low end 70Ds. The extra $10K they are getting for Ludicrous mode is probably almost all profit.

If they trim the profit margin percentage a bit expecting to make up the difference on volume, they could lower the profit margin to only $5K and cut an average of almost $15K.

The big cost factor in a long range EV is the battery pack. That is what makes the Model S so expensive. There is a talk on YouTube given by one of Tesla's top engineers from back in May of this year. He showed a graph on the price drop of batteries over time. It averages 7% a year. The price projection of a $35K base price for the Model 3 is dependent on that curve continuing into 2018 and beyond. That means a steady 7% drop a year from the introduction of the Model S projected forward 6 years. Because of the steady drop in price, Tesla's profit margin on the Model S has probably gone up a bit since it's introduction.

Tesla now can be pretty sure the Gigafactory will be running at enough capacity by the introduction of the Model 3 to meet the price goals. Musk tweeted the other day reiterating that the Model 3's base price will be $35,000 probably based on that confidence.

To meet the $35K base price, the entry model will have the smallest battery they can get away with along with the most stripped out feature set they can manage. The car will probably have power windows because it's probably cheaper to offer them across the product line these days than have window cranks. Even a lot of $20K cars have electric windows these days. Power seats are not universal though.

The car will still be a good performer just as the entry level Model S 70 is a much better performer than most other alternative fuel vehicles. The ICE makers are trying to convince the public that if you want an alternative fuel vehicle, you need to either pay an arm and a leg for performance or have to suffer with a gutless car if you want a reasonable price. The Model S currently plays into this image because of it's price. The Model 3 will be positioned to destroy this narrative. That is imperative to Tesla's long term strategy.

For $35K, you will get a car with fairly basic features and a battery that just barely gets a 200 mile EPA range rating. The more common Model 3 will be the bigger battery pack model with many of the features you see on the Model S and X now.

One of the first things Tesla is going to do with the Gigafactory is redesign the physical layout of the batteries to use the space better. Currently about 30% of the space in the battery pack is wasted space. If they can better use that space, they can come out with a ~120 KWh battery for the Model S and X, and make a 40-50KWh battery pack for the Model 3 that is nice and compact. That will give Tesla designers a bit more space to work with.

 

[gregincal]

One of the most important things for me in competing with the BMW 3 series isn't so much all the features as handling and performance. Performance is one of the key advantages of an EV, not just 0-60 time but fast starts and quick acceleration at speed (as long as you have a big battery, not like just about every other current EV). Couple that with competitive handling and stylish looks and it will compete. Make it a boring people mover like the Leaf or the Prius and it won't. Other manufacturers don't want EVs to compete on performance, they just want to market them as eco-vehicles. Even BMW chose narrow tires that clearly impact handling to make the car appeal as a more eco friendly car.

 

[Atlantis]

There is a good analysis of the model 3's batteries power (cheap 44kw, regular 66kw and performance 66kw) and a very wise package of these batteries allowed by new 20700 cells in this article (it's 20 pages to read but it's worth it) http://seekingalpha.com/article/3258855-will-teslas-model-3-compete

 

[EVNow]

There is a good analysis of the model 3's batteries power (cheap 44kw, regular 66kw and performance 66kw) and a very wise package of these batteries allowed by new 20700 cells in this article (it's 20 pages to read but it's worth it) http://seekingalpha.com/article/3258855-will-teslas-model-3-compete

It is a poor analysis - discussed in another thread here. you don't get 200 miles EPA range with 44kwh - need a minimum of 55kWh ( will likely be 60 kwh, giving 220 miles range).

- - - Updated - - -

One of the most important things for me in competing with the BMW 3 series isn't so much all the features as handling and performance. Performance is one of the key advantages of an EV, not just 0-60 time but fast starts and quick acceleration at speed (as long as you have a big battery, not like just about every other current EV). Couple that with competitive handling and stylish looks and it will compete.

People buy BMW 3 series for a number of reasons.

Even with features, everyone has their own must haves. So 3 has to be just somewhat competitive on features - including acceleration, interior and handling. It would be interesting to do a comparative analysis of features / specs available with base versions of these C class premium cars.

 

[Lonnie123]

What the odds that Tesla "pulls an S40" and only produces one size pack, and just offers different models from that one size?

Meaning, they only produce a 60kWh pack but offer 50kWh for the base model, with option to unlock later? Or even just keep churning out 70's to cross over into the Model S and just lock it off for the 3? This way they could offer a 50,60,70 ... and they have the option of making "free" money for owners that decide to upgrade later on.

- - - Updated - - -

Its interesting reading this thread to see what features some people consider essential and others not. If nothing else it gives insight as to what the customer base will be.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I disagree. People like me want the Model 3 because we can't afford the Model S. The only option I need is the winter package. Anything else is optional depending on price.

Yes. The whole idea of the Model 3, as I understand it, is to offer a capable EV that is affordable to mid market buyers. If Tesla manages that I think they will have a hit and my guess is that a lot of those cars won't be loaded, the way the money-is-no-object Model S tends to be.

The only option I consider "must-have" is Supercharger access, assuming that it is not standard. Don't really need the cold weather package, since I don't live in the frozen north like you do.

 

[EVNow]

What the odds that Tesla "pulls an S40" and only produces one size pack, and just offers different models from that one size?

Meaning, they only produce a 60kWh pack but offer 50kWh for the base model, with option to unlock later? Or even just keep churning out 70's to cross over into the Model S and just lock it off for the 3? This way they could offer a 50,60,70 ... and they have the option of making "free" money for owners that decide to upgrade later on.

No chance. When they would be trying to save every dollar to hit $35k, they won't increase the cost by thousands of dollars needlessly.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...
Options that won't be available:

1. Rear seat heaters/heated steering wheel...

I'd be surprised if the heated steering wheel wasn't offered as part of the cold weather package. It really ought to be standard in any EV because it reduces the need for cabin heat (speaking from long experience).

...Cheaper stuff:
...2. 50kwh battery in base model...

I don't buy the idea of a 50 kWh battery. Musk talks about a minimum "real world" range of 200 miles — which I would interpret as an EPA range of at least 220-240 miles — and a 50 kWh battery won't get there. I'm guessing a 60 kWh battery on the base Model 3.

 

[pmadflyer]

As mentioned, the battery size was debated and I crunched numbers using the stated pack and vehicle production capacity in 2020 (35 gWh and 500k vehicles) . Here's a new example:
50k 85 kWh S/X
50k 70 kWh S/X
50k 90 kWh S/X
350k 65 kWh 3
That's just numbers I made up. My point is, there will be plenty of kWh to go around.

Bonus, this assumes none of the expanded Gigafactory output goes to vehicles.

 

[CaptainKirk]

Everyone will have a list of needs and wants for a vehicle. I intend to attempt to place a reservation when announced, along with my father. When the time comes around to confirm though, the final specs need to make it worthwhile for me to replace my '08 Lexus IS350, therefore I probably wouldn't be getting the base model, but it should be comparable to a current IS350 of similar cost. Otherwise I will just continue to drive my current car into the ground. I would still prefer a Model 3 because I intend to start a family around the time of delivery, and I'm seriously hoping that it can be my new family car. My list of needs and want include:

Needs:
- fold down rear seats (very likely for Tesla Model 3)
- usable frunk with cargo net(doable)
- comparable HP to my current car's 306 HP (I'm willing to budge on this)
- cupholders! I love to go on road trips and this is actually important
- leather seats
- 18 way adjustable seats + lumbar support
- adjustable height seat belts

Want:
- heated and cooled seats (you never know how you went without them until you have them)
- 17" Touchscreen (wouldn't it be easier for Tesla just to keep the UI without messing around with different resolutions? they can also drive down the cost of these units)
- Automatic handles like the S (I am willing to settle for manually operated recessed handles similar to Jaguar's)
- Home garage link
- True comfortable seating for 5 adults. I'm not a tall guy at 5'8" and I find the IS350 tight in the rear for long trips.
- HID/LED lights that follow the turning of the wheel
- Alloy Rims and painted callipers
- Parking Sensors
- Dual Motor AWD
- adjustable height headrests

I'm a pretty easy guy to please, as you can see, so I have my fingers crossed! See you all on-line come march!

 

[wdolson]

What the odds that Tesla "pulls an S40" and only produces one size pack, and just offers different models from that one size?

Meaning, they only produce a 60kWh pack but offer 50kWh for the base model, with option to unlock later? Or even just keep churning out 70's to cross over into the Model S and just lock it off for the 3? This way they could offer a 50,60,70 ... and they have the option of making "free" money for owners that decide to upgrade later on.

- - - Updated - - -

Its interesting reading this thread to see what features some people consider essential and others not. If nothing else it gives insight as to what the customer base will be.

As I understand it, they only did that with the S40 because demand for it was so low, it didn't justify making a lower capacity battery pack. For the few S40s ordered, they just crippled an S60 pack. For weight and cost of production, it actually makes sense to make different battery packs with different real capacities. As long as there is enough demand for each pack size.

 

[S'toon]

Yes. The whole idea of the Model 3, as I understand it, is to offer a capable EV that is affordable to mid market buyers. If Tesla manages that I think they will have a hit and my guess is that a lot of those cars won't be loaded, the way the money-is-no-object Model S tends to be.

The only option I consider "must-have" is Supercharger access, assuming that it is not standard. Don't really need the cold weather package, since I don't live in the frozen north like you do.

Right. My bad. Cold weather package, and supercharger access. No supercharger access, no road trips.

It also must be noted that I live in the middle of the supercharger black hole, where the map shows that Tesla doesn't even plan to put any superchargers. So, if by say 2018 there's still no superchargers, I'll be looking into buying a Volt.

 

[tom66]

My predictions:

- Smaller touchscreen (14"~16" instead) and maybe dropping the full digital dash or reducing the size of the dashboard LCD (perhaps, for example, adding external telltales rather than using a larger LCD.)

- Base model needs at least 200hp at the wheels IMHO, they will offer a tricked out M3 competitor with M3-like specs, probably similar to P85D with AWD.

- Interior trim will be better or similar to Model S currently, but likely worse than future GenII+ Model S, perhaps of a similar interior design language.

- All wheel drive definitely an option.

- Base model has 18" wheels, perhaps even smaller, and just basic alloy wheels with nothing too fancy.

- Autopilot safety features might be optional, but Tesla seems to be against making safety features optional so who knows. Maybe some features like the speed warning will be optional (they require the Mobileye camera) but the cruise radar will be standard allowing for automatic emergency braking as standard.

- Supercharging will be included but I predict there will be a fair usage policy to prevent taxi firms etc taking advantage of the network to the detrement of other customers. For example, you get up to 30 free supercharging days in a year for up to 8 years with a clause specifically prohibiting commercial usage except commuting to or from a place of work. You can use the superchargers an unlimited number of times in each day. One charge or ten charges in a day, it doesn't matter. This lets people roadtrip whilst clearing the air about what is fair and reasonable usage - anything up to the limit is acceptable. Of course Tesla would also have to offer extra charging packages if they do this, or perhaps the option for $10 to purchase another day, for power users.

- 3G/4G connectivity will be an optional package after 4 years, although roadside/telemetry/app usage will be free forever if you want to use web browser/map etc then you will have to pay for this. The centre console will still support wifi so people who do not wish to use Tesla's network may use their own with a wifi hotspot. Maybe the sim card will be interchangeable.

- The audio system will consist of a standard automotive four-speaker system with a 40W/ch rating. The high-fidelity option will still be available.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I'd be surprised if the heated steering wheel wasn't offered as part of the cold weather package. It really ought to be standard in any EV because it reduces the need for cabin heat (speaking from long experience).I don't buy the idea of a 50 kWh battery. Musk talks about a minimum "real world" range of 200 miles — which I would interpret as an EPA range of at least 220-240 miles — and a 50 kWh battery won't get there. I'm guessing a 60 kWh battery on the base Model 3.

While I hope your right I'd be very surprised to see 60kwh base. Imo there's a > 90% chance that base model will be 50 or 55kwh. I expect M3 to use 20% less energy per mile than MS, at this usage rate a 60kwh M3 would have an EPA range of ~245 miles, I expect the base model to have more like a 220 mi EPA range.

 

[pmadflyer]

While I hope your right I'd be very surprised to see 60kwh base. Imo there's a > 90% chance that base model will be 50 or 55kwh. I expect M3 to use 20% less energy per mile than MS, at this usage rate a 60kwh M3 would have an EPA range of ~245 miles, I expect the base model to have more like a 220 mi EPA range.

On the highway in a snow storm? That's the conditions Elon have when he stated a minimum 200 mile real world range.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

On the highway in a snow storm? That's the conditions Elon have when he stated a minimum 200 mile real world range.

I must have missed where Elon said "on the highway in a snowstorm" ... The "post your Wh/mile" thread shows EPA figures to be about 10% optimistic if memory serves, beating 200 miles EPA by 10% would legitimize a claim of "200 miles real world range."