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Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

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#301
I think most machines can vary the length and diameter of the cells they produce. Some can even produce both cylindrical and prismatic types, so I expect a size change to be fairly easy. Double the diameter means you just let the machine wind for twice as long before cutting, then you need to stamp and install larger end caps. With the volume Tesla will be using they could do a custom cell and still benefit from economy of scale.
 
#303
JRP3 said:
I think most machines can vary the length and diameter of the cells they produce. Some can even produce both cylindrical and prismatic types, so I expect a size change to be fairly easy. Double the diameter means you just let the machine wind for twice as long before cutting, then you need to stamp and install larger end caps. With the volume Tesla will be using they could do a custom cell and still benefit from economy of scale.
Click to expand...

That is true of the jelly roll, but in addition to the cap, you need to retool for the case. Not a big problem, but there are costs and lost production time to factor in.

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StapleGun said:
Does the speed at which a battery pack can be charged depend on cell size at all? I couldn't imagine Tesla sacrificing a faster charge rate without a very compelling gain in density or price.
Click to expand...

This question is a little out of my zone because I am hardly a battery engineer, but my quick answer is potentially yes.

One of the issues with fast charging is heat, and it should be easier to cool a smaller battery. That said, I'm sure there are engineering work arounds, and it may not be much of a problem in the first place.

Some of our battery experts could be more definitive.
 
#304
Back to cost and other issues, I've been pecking away at costs using a 7,000 cell model.

My quickie maximum cost simulated pack using our known constraint (less than a quarter of the cost of most models) is this -

60kWh Pack
  • 4992 cells 3.4aH cells
  • 61.1kWh
  • $3 Cell Cost
  • Pack Cost - $2,500
  • Total Cost - $17,476


85kWh Pack
  • 7,104 3.4aH cells
  • 86.95kWh
  • $3 Cell Cost
  • Pack Cost - $2,500
  • Total Cost - $23,812

This is a maximum price simulation that is consistent with our constraint. Current Trendforce wholesale price data points to a per cell cost of ~$3 for 3.4aH cells ($0.90/aH) but we've established plenty of reasons to suppose that Tesla is paying less than wholesale price.

If you assume a pack cost of $2,500 (which I am quite comfortable with) the lowest cell cost consistent with our constraints is $2.50, which happens to have been our best guess for 3.4aH cells based on Alibaba prices discussed up thread (edit: in the OP actually). That is a per cell cost of ~$205/kWh and a total cost in the ~$233/kWh range under this scenario.

Under those assumptions, every model except the base 85kWh (with no options) has a pack cost under 25% of the cost of the vehicle, which satisfies the constraints discussed by Straubel in the MIT piece. In addition, the "best case" is broadly consistent with the original IEK data discussed in the OP as well as a profuse amount of speculation and research.

Therefor, I think a better simulation is this -

60kWh Pack
  • 4992 cells 3.4aH cells
  • 61.1kWh
  • $2.50 Cell Cost
  • Pack Cost - $2,500
  • Total Cost - $14,980

85kWh Pack
  • 7,104 cells 3.4aH cells
  • 86.95kWh
  • $2.50 Cell Cost
  • Pack Cost - $2,500
  • Total Cost - $20,260

Edit: marked it up to add links
 
Last edited:
#305
Casing machine may be adjustable as well, if you are just going to a larger diameter cell then you just change the cut length, same as for the jelly roll, and adjust the diameter of the roller to create the cylinder. Factories do already make cells in 26650, 38120, 40160 sizes, I don't know if they have separate machines for these or not.
 
#306
JRP3 said:
Casing machine may be adjustable as well, if you are just going to a larger diameter cell then you just change the cut length, same as for the jelly roll, and adjust the diameter of the roller to create the cylinder. Factories do already make cells in 26650, 38120, 40160 sizes, I don't know if they have separate machines for these or not.
Click to expand...

Are they rolled or extruded? I don't recall seeing seams.
 
#308
And, following your logic, the 40kWh pack would be around 10,500-11,000 Dollars. I fully expect a 40kWh battery could get the smaller, lighter Model E a 200+ mile range, and with the annual decrease in battery price, would make the 35k car totally possible in 3 years time. As Elon said, even with the current chemistry, Model E at 35k is possible.
 
#312
scottf200 said:
Related new article:

At $100/kWh It Is “All Over” For The Internal Combustion Engine – Energy Expert

http://insideevs.com/at-100kwh-it-is-all-over-for-the-internal-combustion-engine-energy-expert/
Click to expand...
Color me skeptical. I don't think the high price of EVs is the primary constraint in EV adoption. At $100/kWh there'd be a momentum shift, but there is still a huge infrastructure gap. I write this from my house on an old city street, where almost no one has a garage and nearly everyone parks on the street. Charge at home? Not for most. Charge at work? Most take the bus or subway to work. There's a big slice of the world whose needs are not (yet) met by privately owned EVs.
 
#313
On the other hand with more affordable EV's there would be added impetus to create charging solutions for those people. When they see the rest of the world zipping around in cheap to fuel EV's you can bet there will be a major push for more charging. Lack of charging will be seen as a negative when people shop for living quarters, and will subsequently devalue the property.
 
#314
JRP3 said:
On the other hand with more affordable EV's there would be added impetus to create charging solutions for those people. When they see the rest of the world zipping around in cheap to fuel EV's you can bet there will be a major push for more charging. Lack of charging will be seen as a negative when people shop for living quarters, and will subsequently devalue the property.
Click to expand...

+100. The examples of "electrically challenged citizens" only say something about the order in which people will embrace EVs. They will be last. Doesn't mean that the revolution will wait for them.
 
#315
blakegallagher said:
He didn't, He did say that it could be done with current battery tech ... or at least he said it could be done with no major breakthroughs required .... no miracles needed
Click to expand...
Yes, thank you, that's the Elon quote I was referring to.

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Robert.Boston said:
Color me skeptical. I don't think the high price of EVs is the primary constraint in EV adoption. At $100/kWh there'd be a momentum shift, but there is still a huge infrastructure gap. I write this from my house on an old city street, where almost no one has a garage and nearly everyone parks on the street. Charge at home? Not for most. Charge at work? Most take the bus or subway to work. There's a big slice of the world whose needs are not (yet) met by privately owned EVs.
Click to expand...

That's what I've been saying for a while now too. And that's why I've been suggenting they should partner with someone (like fast food chains or retail chains) who have existing city locations where people stop for half an hour anyway. They can't be expected to provide that much coverage alone.

I was smiling when I read the Norway SC press release, how they have covered 90% of the population. Right... if those people are OK with driving 200km each way to charge up, then sure.
 
#316
Its not the drive each way to charge up, it is the ability to go somewhere. In one fell swoop, Tesla nailed the infrastructure question for Europeans. Put simply, it is not that much real estate so just get off your rears and help us put the chargers in place and you will be able to drive all the way across Europe. Look, you can do it in Norway now! Very nicely done.
 
#317
lolachampcar said:
Its not the drive each way to charge up, it is the ability to go somewhere. In one fell swoop, Tesla nailed the infrastructure question for Europeans. Put simply, it is not that much real estate so just get off your rears and help us put the chargers in place and you will be able to drive all the way across Europe. Look, you can do it in Norway now! Very nicely done.
Click to expand...
I think you missed the point others and myslef tried to make. Of course everyone gets, that the SC network is mainly designed to aid long distance trips. However, not everyone lives in the suburbs. People parking on the street in the cities need charging too. This is not a big issue for a 100k car, but if they start selling something that costs 1/3 of that, it could become one. Not saying i expect Tesla to single handedly cover the whole planet, but they should look into partnerships.
 
#318
Sorry about that.... I see Tesla's contribution as addressing the "but I can not just go places like I can with my XYZ" question. I look at day to day local charging as a local issue. I think there are more than enough home garages out there to store as many G3s as Tesla can make so the broader EV local charging issue is one for other manufacturers to address, no? This comment is more focused on the US than Europe.
 
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