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Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate
- Thread starter CapitalistOppressor
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Its been a while since anyone commented on this thread, what are peoples thoughts on the pretty much certain deals with panasonic to increase production and Sam//LG/BYD playing second and third line? I think its great that they are talking to all of these three as it creates competition which will push the price down...
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lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I'm just blown away that Tesla has a chance of getting vendors to step up and create the necessary volume for G3. I can not wait for details.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I think Samsung is pretty much confirmed. LG was also in the bidding.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...upplier-issues?p=472180&viewfull=1#post472180
I already pointed out months ago that they were good candidates for secondary suppliers (and pretty much the only viable ones):
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-Model-S/page2?p=300400&viewfull=1#post300400
BYD I think was a footnote rumor, and I don't think it has as much credibility (BYD does not operate in the 18650 space):
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/a...c-content.aspx?id=200000251005&type=18&catg=3
I'm not sure, but perhaps Elon gave us a clue into a more specific target for battery improvement he currently foresees happening in the next 5 years this week in London.
It was difficult to make out the units he was referring to (and frankly I don't have a technical background to figure this out), but around 28:15 into the youtube video, sounds like he is saying there is a clear path for the 18650 cells to go from 260 ?units to 380 ?units within 5 years.
I'm wondering if someone here with technical knowledge can determine if he is indicating confidence in something that will translate to a 45% improvement in the batteries cost per kWh.
Again, begins about 28:15 into the recording
Tesla London Store Opening reception with Elon Musk - YouTube
It was difficult to make out the units he was referring to (and frankly I don't have a technical background to figure this out), but around 28:15 into the youtube video, sounds like he is saying there is a clear path for the 18650 cells to go from 260 ?units to 380 ?units within 5 years.
I'm wondering if someone here with technical knowledge can determine if he is indicating confidence in something that will translate to a 45% improvement in the batteries cost per kWh.
Again, begins about 28:15 into the recording
Tesla London Store Opening reception with Elon Musk - YouTube
Yah, I presumed it was a "standard unit" like that but didn't have a chance (yet) to revisit the video to see if I could tease that out.
Ya so looking at that you seeing 5 years out (Model E just starting to ramp up) and the MS could be at a 450mile range. So with putting the Model E at a 200 mile range your talking about only having to use half the cells for a Model E to the MS at that time.
So i bet he is pushing real hard to get Panasonic and co to get the density up for the Model E. That way he would literally only be putting half the cells in compared to a MS and should help keep price down dramatically between the two cars.
So i bet he is pushing real hard to get Panasonic and co to get the density up for the Model E. That way he would literally only be putting half the cells in compared to a MS and should help keep price down dramatically between the two cars.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Elon has talked about an ideal number cells being around 4K so you are probably looking at MS range in a 4K pack. The reduction in cell count being proportional to a reduction in pack cost. Hopefully the ramp up in production will bring further economies of scale.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I can confirm fjm9898's point that he's likely talking about Wh/kg. The current cutting edge are Panasonic 3.6v, 3400mAh cells at 265Wh/kg. 380Wh/kg would imply a 5000mAh cell at the same voltage, but most likely it'll involve high voltage electrolyte.
You know, i think the 200 mile range for Model E is being taken too literally. I seem to recall that Elon always says "at least 200 mile range".
Now, the current Model S is running on batteries designed 2-3 years ago - or even if the chemistry is being tweaked constantly, the battery capacity they sell is what was possible back then. The Model E will have the first prototype out in 12-18 months, with production not scheduled until 3 years from now - so that's 5-6 years of advances in battery tech and Tesla know how.
I know all that will mainly be used to get the cost down, but I think 200 miles has always been the minumum target. We could end up with slightly more for the base model if they can make it happen.
Now, the current Model S is running on batteries designed 2-3 years ago - or even if the chemistry is being tweaked constantly, the battery capacity they sell is what was possible back then. The Model E will have the first prototype out in 12-18 months, with production not scheduled until 3 years from now - so that's 5-6 years of advances in battery tech and Tesla know how.
I know all that will mainly be used to get the cost down, but I think 200 miles has always been the minumum target. We could end up with slightly more for the base model if they can make it happen.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
60/85 KW/hr range on MS is working out well. I suspect G3 will follow the same path with two models at roughly the same range.
Maybe they feel that 200 miles is a sufficient range for most people especially once the supercharger network is built out. Rather than using the better battery technology to increase range they could use it to reduce the price of the battery pack and capture better gross margins from the get go. Of course they could offer higher range battery packs for people willing to pay, but I think maximizing gross margins on the lowest end model is important.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/panasonic-tesla-reach-agreement-expand-075609467.html
Boooom Panasonic Deal!
Boooom Panasonic Deal!
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Official press release from Tesla:
PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
They do.
Future cars will come in 200 miles as base and as 300 miles "LongRanger" variants. Higher range won't be common ... too expensive and to heavy for a daily driver.
If energy density will be 45% higher for model E and second generation of model S, it will be intersting how will they aproach it. Because it will give them a chance to go from 200 to 380 miles range with the same max battery pack weight.
200 miles pack will be almost 150kg lighter than 380 miles, so it would require lighter car body and in that case less batteries - bringing additional cost savings. Let´s say they will need 3kWh less in capacity that represents savings in range of 300-400 USD per car. Would it be worth it with sales around 100.000/year of 200 miles car?
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Zzzz...
Member
280k battery packs over 4 years(85kWh) is almost 70k cars a year... Add existing agreement and some of those cells might go inside Gen3.
Yes, but they also need to at least halve the battery pack price.
They will therefore target the range that is perceived as good enough : 200+ miles. Anything less suggests "crippled". 300+ miles is seen as "lots of range" so they will also offer something along those numbers
Even more range would increase the price too far into MS60 territory.
300/500 miles models will come when the second only costs up to 30% more than the first.
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