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Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate
- Thread starter CapitalistOppressor
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I don't thinik he says that. He says it is about 30-35% of the car's price. That's 21k even for the 60, and even with only 30%, isn't it?
Zzzz...
Member
Hmm, reporter suggested 40k euro, not USD. And my understanding EM was referring to whole price of the car...
Thanks for catching this, of course these are euros.
I do not think, though, that EM was refering to the cost of the car - after giving the percentages, he added :"way less than the number you just used". Based on this I believe that percentage range given by EM applies to the 40,000 euros.
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See my response to Zzzz's post for the reason I believe that EM was giving percentages on 40,000 basis, not cost of the car.
There are also other references that make 21,000 euros or $27,666 way to high to be correct. In the MIT Technology Review article that was published in August of this year, Tesla CTO GB Straubel is quoted to say battery costs "Less that a quarter (of car price) in most cases".
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516961/how-tesla-is-driving-electric-car-innovation/
Batteries are, but it's not clear that Tesla will switch, especially over the next couple of years. There is a massive amount of engineering in the. BMS, suspension, software, etc around the current cells. That investment is a major reason that Tesla choose not to develop the 40kWh variant. It's not just a matter of changing the cell count to make it work, and it's even more the case when you try to swap in cells with dramatically different properties.
Tesla certainly could do it, but we have no reason to assume they will. Especially once you consider the possibility that the per unit cost of the 3.4aH cells they are using might continue to fall, and result in a lower cost per kWh than the early production runs of the next gen cells.
I think the prudent assumption is that Tesla has locked in the basic pack format for now and we won't see a significant change until they come out with a GenIII pack with next gen cells. That will happen ~5 years into the production run for the S platform, which is a fairly typical run in the automotive industry before a major platform redesign.
Good to see you back here CapOp.
What do you think they will do about form factor for Model E? On the one hand, I agree with you that changing form factors is a big cost/investment/hassle (not least because the battery swapping station seems to be fit-for-purpose for that form factor?).
On the other hand, the Model E will be shorter and smaller, and thence the Model S/X pack may be too big/long?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
If it's simply a larger capacity cell with similar chemistry and properties I don't see much of an issue in using it. Physical construction is unchanged and any voltage and current changes are an easy tweak in software.
I'd think at this point any significant price reductions would almost have to come from density improvements.
If Panasonic is able to get a 3.6ah yield at a similar price I can't imagine any reason why Tesla wouldn't start using it.
Without a doubt, plus the fact that the smaller and lighter E won't need as many cells to get the same or better range than the S, and it has to be a cheaper vehicle.
Well, one could envisage that the cost of a 60kWh battery pack would by then have fallen sufficiently to make a $35k feasible (yeah, I know, kind of a stretch).
My concerns about the engineering have more to do with the physical cell count than the specific power density. If Panasonic offered up a 3.6aH cell with a similar per cell cost to the 3.4aH cells then I could see Tesla integrating them and pocketing a range increase. But a change that forces a reduction in the cell count would potentially be a substantially greater problem because it changes the physical structure of the battery and how it's wired together and built.
We don't know how difficult it is for Tesla to change these things but for my part I don't see these as trivial software issues. There are real engineering challenges to making changes to the battery that have potentially wide ranging consequences that potentially affect manufacturing, handling, safety (thermal regulation/fire management), etc.
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Good to see you back here CapOp.
What do you think they will do about form factor for Model E? On the one hand, I agree with you that changing form factors is a big cost/investment/hassle (not least because the battery swapping station seems to be fit-for-purpose for that form factor?).
On the other hand, the Model E will be shorter and smaller, and thence the Model S/X pack may be too big/long?
It's time for earnings, I am playing with fire by disengaging from TMC as much as I have been. Based on relative returns I should retire and follow TSLA full time, or at least cash out and improve my health thanks to lower blood pressure.
As to the battery swap issue, if Tesla moves forward with that then they will eventually need to solve the problem of having multiple battery versions/different cells and form factors. Batteries built today will need to still be swappable in the 2020's when we know there will have been major advances in battery tech.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla is already dealing with a change in cell count, voltage, and current, between the 60 and 85kWh packs. They just leave an empty space, or a sand bag or something, in part of the pack. It's hard for me to envision such a drastic chemistry change in the near term that would create parameters wider ranging than that. I'm also going with the assumption that near term future chemistry will be safer or at least as safe as current chemistry, it almost has to be or it won't be an advancement. I'm only talking about incremental improvements, not a drastic chemistry change.
Zzzz...
Member
Ok, just watched webinar from Navigant (thanx to whoever posted the link!).
A lot of interesting info. Most interesting slide - I was not aware about lead-acid battery prices, and that they roughly at the same level as small factor li-ion already. Advanced lead acid is not competitive with li-ion today (sorry JP and AXPW investors).
Price level of small factor li-ion is around $200/kWh atm.
Large format cells li ion prices are declining rapidly. And in the long run they would be cheaper then small form factor cells(makes perfect sense). Feels like Nissan made a good bet for the long run.
And one remark from the the installer of commercial/residential battery backup system - in last 14 month they saw roughly 30% price decrease on a cell level. And they expect around 10% cell price decrease in next 12 months. They mostly sell 80kWh to 120kWh systems.
A lot of interesting info. Most interesting slide - I was not aware about lead-acid battery prices, and that they roughly at the same level as small factor li-ion already. Advanced lead acid is not competitive with li-ion today (sorry JP and AXPW investors).
Price level of small factor li-ion is around $200/kWh atm.
Large format cells li ion prices are declining rapidly. And in the long run they would be cheaper then small form factor cells(makes perfect sense). Feels like Nissan made a good bet for the long run.
And one remark from the the installer of commercial/residential battery backup system - in last 14 month they saw roughly 30% price decrease on a cell level. And they expect around 10% cell price decrease in next 12 months. They mostly sell 80kWh to 120kWh systems.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Tesla actually kept the same cell count, voltage, current per module, but used less modules for the 60kWh pack (thus resulting in an overall pack with lower voltage). So I think CapitalistOppressor is talking about an intra-module change in cell count being more difficult than just upping the capacity.
Boom. Tesla Giga-factory seems to be the leading option. This thread was all over that issue.
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We've done the math on this. The capital requirements are massive.
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We've done the math on this. The capital requirements are massive.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Elon
"If I had to guess, I'd say a giga factory in the US building complete packs with a partner"
"If I had to guess, I'd say a giga factory in the US building complete packs with a partner"
+1000
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Whoa. Deepak shut Elon up when he was talking about being in Panasonic factories.
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This needs to end so I can rewind that, lol.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Wow. This was a hot potato.
Gotta love a smart engineer as CEO. Talking about which metals make up what percentage of the battery pack. LOL.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
They are in the process and just can not say anything.... Soooo, who is funding this effort?
"We are building recycling into the factory" Present Tense!
"We are building recycling into the factory" Present Tense!
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