Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

[techmaven]

It is tempting to look at the 2 billion cells as 300,000 Model S/X's. However, it may be that the bulk of these cells are not the 3.1Ah variant. Panasonic as both 3.6Ah and 4.0Ah cells on their roadmap. It may not be worth it to go to the 3.6Ah cell, but in any case, by the end of this agreement, the number of cells per car is likely to drop dramatically between the smaller/lighter Model E and higher capacity cells.

All in all, this is a big deal for Tesla.

 

[WarpedOne]

number of cells per car is likely to drop dramatically between the smaller/lighter Model E and the higher capacity.

Model E will still need at least 50kWh battery to meet 200 mile range target. That is ~80% cell count of MS60, Tesla will surely go with the cheapest cells that deliver those 200miles hence the cell count per vehicle won't drop "dramatically".

 

[techmaven]

Model E will still need at least 50kWh battery to meet 200 mile range target. That is ~80% cell count of MS60, Tesla will surely go with the cheapest cells that deliver those 200miles hence the cell count per vehicle won't drop "dramatically".

I find it unlikely that in 3 or 4 years that the Model E will still be using the 3.1 Ah cell. The prices at high volume wholesale is unlikely to show the pricing spread that you see for cells in retail. Even moving to the 3.4 Ah cell which has almost no weight penalty and a 8-9% capacity increase combined with a 50kWh battery capacity would mean roughly 4500 cells per Model E.

 

[tslafan123]

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/pr...t-expand-supply-automotivegrade-battery-cells

"2 billion cells over the course of four years"


Press release clearly says Model S and X - no mention of Model E.


How many cars does this translate to? Thus, what growth rate can we expect?


Forbes, DB are putting it at 300K to 330K cars. But they are using current cell counts per car as it is. But aren't batteries supposed to get efficient every passing year?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/pr...t-expand-supply-automotivegrade-battery-cells

"2 billion cells over the course of four years"


Press release clearly says Model S and X - no mention of Model E.


How many cars does this translate to? Thus, what growth rate can we expect?


Forbes, DB are putting it at 300K to 330K cars. But they are using current cell counts per car as it is. But aren't batteries supposed to get efficient every passing year?

Probably about right. I used the 7k figure for 85kWh battery and got 285k cars. If you throw in a mix of 60 kWh ones as well and possibly upgrade to higher Ah batteries, then it can translate easily to 300-350k cars. If we assume it's 40-50k for 2014, then for the next three years we get 100k per year

 

[Convert2013]

Probably about right. I used the 7k figure for 85kWh battery and got 285k cars. If you throw in a mix of 60 kWh ones as well and possibly upgrade to higher Ah batteries, then it can translate easily to 300-350k cars. If we assume it's 40-50k for 2014, then for the next three years we get 100k per year

Yeah. Now waiting for the Samsung portion of the deal ;-)

 

[techmaven]

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/pr...t-expand-supply-automotivegrade-battery-cells

"2 billion cells over the course of four years"

Press release clearly says Model S and X - no mention of Model E.

True, but the press release doesn't rule out that use of cells under that agreement for the Model E. It's carefully worded to say that Tesla will use the Panasonic cells in the Model S and the upcoming Model X. Nothing about using them or not using them for the Model E. Given the volume, it is probably reasonable to expect that some of these are for the Model E. Of course, if they manage to sell 300,000 Model S/X's over the next 4 years, that'll be great too.

Forbes, DB are putting it at 300K to 330K cars. But they are using current cell counts per car as it is. But aren't batteries supposed to get efficient every passing year?

Yes, over time the Panasonic has been improving the cells. There is already a newer generation cell on the market, but we really don't know exactly what cell Tesla is using and what their plans for adoption would be over time. From Musk's London remarks, it is clear that Tesla is waiting for a newer generation of cells for the Model E. It is also clear that Tesla has some significant visibility into the specifications and the cost structure for those cells.

 

[tslafan123]

Of course, if they manage to sell 300,000 Model S/X's over the next 4 years, that'll be great too.

That is really the "base case" scenario. I am not sure why it wouldn't be. I don't get why people want to slip Model E into this projection at all.

 

[lolachampcar]

I want to understand where the cells are going to come from for E. Samsung? I do not doubt for a minute they can build a bunch of S and X.

 

[JRP3]

I find it unlikely that in 3 or 4 years that the Model E will still be using the 3.1 Ah cell.

Indeed, since capacity and cell count estimates suggest that Tesla is using the 3.4ah cell in the current Model S.

 

[lolachampcar]

what rings in my ears are Elon's comments about the ideal number of cells in a pack being 4000. A drop in frontal area for E combined with improved chemistry makes 4K cells = > 200 miles.

 

[techmaven]

Indeed, since capacity and cell count estimates suggest that Tesla is using the 3.4ah cell in the current Model S.

I thought the general consensus was that Tesla was using a cell derived from the NCR18650A, not the B.

 

[JRP3]

Problem is that doesn't work for "around" 7K cells for the 85kWh pack.

 

[DonPedro]

I just found an investor presentation on the Tesla Investor Relations page:

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...543395/Autumn 2013 Corporate Presentation.pdf

If it has been posted before, I apologize (not able to read all posts in all threads). Mostly old news, but it is interesting to see how they present the company, with "IP leader" being the very first thing to mention.

Page 9 shows an obfuscated view of battery costs. I read this to say that "the battery pack cost is between $200 and $300 per kWh, but we won't tell you exactly that". My experience with this kind of communication is that you are typically somewhere in the middle - i.e. $235-265/kWh range in this case. That would point at an 85kWh pack cost of $20-22.5k. But this is of course speculation.

 

[lolachampcar]

We now know Tesla is selling "refurbished" 85s for $40K and new for $50K. That sounds like 50% margins to me.

 

[DonPedro]

We now know Tesla is selling "refurbished" 85s for $40K and new for $50K. That sounds like 50% margins to me.

Makes sense, actually. If production is constrained by battery supply, then each battery pack is "worth" $25k of gross margins (assuming $100k ASP and 25% GM).

 

[JRP3]

We also know that they are pricing the difference between the 60 and 85 kWh packs at $320/kWh retail after you subtract the $2000 supercharger access built into the 85 kWh price.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The battery pack level cost is under $14,000 according to the interview Elon have given in Germany (linked below, second video, 5min 50sec mark). My assumption is that cost equal to 30% to 35% of $40,000 price tag suggested by the reporter applies to 85kWh.


Verpasste Zukunft

 

[SteveG3]

We now know Tesla is selling "refurbished" 85s for $40K and new for $50K. That sounds like 50% margins to me.

LolaC, not sure what I missed, but where did we find out this information?

 

[lolachampcar]

sorry... Guy over on TM ran over a trailer hitch (the square bit with the ball that goes into the receiver on the back of a truck). It dented the battery case but did not puncture it. However, the battery needed to be replaced. Tesla quoted him/the insurance company $40K referb and $50K new give or take.

pics included
Sign into My Tesla | Tesla Motors