Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[chickensevil]

I suspect a good chunk is back loaded as Tesla tries to close out the quarter.

Perhaps, but if our SC is anything like the rest of the US/NA there is little to no deliveries happening in Aug, which has been attributed to the shutdown. So I think this is even more so going to be high numbers as they scramble to meet the delivery targets for the quarter. So I would say it is more than just the normal end of quarter ramp.

 

[iadbound]

Just got an email from my DS, unprompted. Still on track.

 

[Genedr]

NY metro area, S85 red, pano, tech, parking, tan, ultra sounds, shelf, carbon fibre.
Confirmed 5/21, and had Sept 5 delivery date for a month.
DS called yesterday pushing it out "two weeks" due to new line rollout; delay is not confirmed yet but expect a week or 10 days at least.
And i thought I had filled up the Audi A5 for the last time....

 

[chickensevil]

Welcome to the Forums! Sorry to hear that it got pushed back... I hope this is not a sign/trend of Tesla missing guidance for Q3. I and I am sure others appreciate this kind of insight that it provides.

Kicking the Gas Can is a great feeling and you will enjoy it soon enough!

Being in the NY area, I am curious how your big city dwellers are handling the charging. Or are you in the suburbs where you have your own personal garage?

 

[bonaire]

Q3 isn't too much of a problem but realize that they must sell 13,000 cars worldwide in Q4 to make the year guidance. It will be better to pull sales from q4 into q3 as much as possible to beat guidance in Q3 so that the excitement leads to more sales in Q4. A miss wouldn't be good. What I think is going to happen is Q4 will be a lot of extra cars built to be positioned at nicer sales offices for off-the-lot sales in Q4. This is a really big number to hit in Q4.

 

[iadbound]

Q3 isn't too much of a problem but realize that they must sell 13,000 cars worldwide in Q4 to make the year guidance. It will be better to pull sales from q4 into q3 as much as possible to beat guidance in Q3 so that the excitement leads to more sales in Q4. A miss wouldn't be good. What I think is going to happen is Q4 will be a lot of extra cars built to be positioned at nicer sales offices for off-the-lot sales in Q4. This is a really big number to hit in Q4.

Hard to imagine that Tesla would be starting off-the-lot sales in Q4 when orders placed today won't even be available until November.

 

[bonaire]

Depends on the actual incoming order rate. Nobody knows that out in the public. We don't know if daily orders are 100, 150, 200, etc. Could be just slightly below the level of 800/week, give or take. If so, we might start seeing people get Vin #s sooner after they order.

 

[chickensevil]

Depends on the actual incoming order rate. Nobody knows that out in the public. We don't know if daily orders are 100, 150, 200, etc. Could be just slightly below the level of 800/week, give or take. If so, we might start seeing people get Vin #s sooner after they order.

One of the analyst comments after talking with Tesla at one of their special private meetings was that Tesla wants to maintain about a 2 month wait time from order date to delivery... Given that current deliveries were ordered around 4 months ago regardless of Performance or not the demand rate MUST be higher than 800 since that was their run rate which initiated the 2 month extra backlog. Also note that 800 a week is the equivalent of 40k a year demand. When they get to 1k and hold there for a while if the demand rate holds at >2 months then demand is higher than Tesla wants it to be and therefore higher than their run rate.

Note that demand in this context means current demand at the time of order, since news is constantly spreading naturally this is always on the uptick.

 

[bonaire]

I agree for the most part. But overall, it is a 3 month US-delivery from confirm to delivery. People taking delivery at end of august have about a 90 day confirm/delivery timeframe. I see end of september are anywhere from high 70 days to mid 90s. Depending on model. I think a lot of us are tracking this for investment reasons (whether to know when to buy/sell/do options, etc). A lot of the guys in the Short Term price threads may be doing this too. Delivery time extended when they started building the China/HongKong cars but are stabilizing and coming back down again. But if you want to chat more about this, I can share data with you via PM or whatever. I'm a bit of a technical data "archivist" and have a bunch of data.

 

[chickensevil]

I agree for the most part. But overall, it is a 3 month US-delivery from confirm to delivery. People taking delivery at end of august have about a 90 day confirm/delivery timeframe. I see end of september are anywhere from high 70 days to mid 90s. Depending on model. I think a lot of us are tracking this for investment reasons (whether to know when to buy/sell/do options, etc). A lot of the guys in the Short Term price threads may be doing this too. Delivery time extended when they started building the China/HongKong cars but are stabilizing and coming back down again. But if you want to chat more about this, I can share data with you via PM or whatever. I'm a bit of a technical data "archivist" and have a bunch of data.

Sorry, I wasn't sure which threads you were tracking on. This had been discussed in some of those other threads you mentioned, very heavily in the Website wait times for delivery change thread. I might have been rounding up too high in my head... I tend to do that. But yeah, happy to continue that discussion in one of the other more appropriate threads

 

[Genedr]

@chickensevil: thanks, nice to be here. When do I graduate from "junior member?"
I am in suburbs, and have the 240v NEMA ready to go in the garage. Several NYC garages have chargepoints, though you have to pay $$$ for parking as well as the volts.
I expect to be this, by the way:

 

[Dborn]

I am in Australia. My car has gone "production complete and in transit". So, our launch is likely prior to end September. Thus, some proof that they are actively working on overseas cars right now.

 

[chickensevil]

@chickensevil: thanks, nice to be here. When do I graduate from "junior member?"
I am in suburbs, and have the 240v NEMA ready to go in the garage. Several NYC garages have chargepoints, though you have to pay $$$ for parking as well as the volts.
I expect to be this, by the way:

View attachment 57057

I think it is like 5 posts to get out of the "restricted" posting, where an admin has to approve all your posts, and then the rest is based on reputation I believe. (That little star at the bottom right of each post is how you give it out). I actually only just recently got my third bubble, it looks like the bubbles are every 100 rep points. But you can post freely and as much as you want when you get past the 5 post limit (I think it is 5... somewhere around there). But of course I would follow the forum rules in your posts or the mods will come down on you (no trolling, try to stick to the topic at hand... although they will generally just move posts to another thread or into snippiness if it gets out of hand... don't intentionally derail the topic. pretty common stuff)

Overall the mods are pretty great here at what they do. The allow a lot of leeway in the posts without it getting too out of hand and quickly rail in the discussion without needing to really take punitive action. I very rarely see anyone get negative rep (which only mods can do) or see someone get banned/suspended. Anyway, speaking of sidetrack... if you want more information feel free to PM me.

About the charging, thank you for that. Since I have never been to NYC I was curious how the adoption rate would be and any limiting factors people would face in getting a place to charge their cars. Because all those people in the high rises will eventually go electric (that is the hope, right!?).

I suspect at some point Tesla will be forced to do what they have done in China and just put chargers in the city for people who can't charge at home. I think they are just not too worried about how much market they have access to just yet in the US which is why they haven't really done too much city charging.

- - - Updated - - -

I am in Australia. My car has gone "production complete and in transit". So, our launch is likely prior to end September. Thus, some proof that they are actively working on overseas cars right now.

When did this happen? today? With a 4-6 week shipping time, how much extra time do you think it will be held up in Customs by your country? I know they had a couple MS in country just for them to get inspected and approved, I hope it isn't anything too crazy for timing. My fingers are cross for you to get your car within the next month!

 

[JBusch]

Checked with my DS yesterday 8/21/14. They are saying the line is about a week behind but is running well after resolving some things on the new line starting up. I am scheduled Sept 4, 2014 for delivery and they are sticking to that date. Saying the build takes two days and I should stay tuned to my status. When my status goes into production they can predict my delivery date. My guess is they will have car hauler lined up at the end of the quarter getting everything they can into shipping for the end of the quarter.

 

[iadbound]

My DS is sticking to Sept. 24. I guess the line is going at full steam now.

 

[chickensevil]

Any sentiment on how well they will play catch up here? I really hope we don't see a miss on production estimates...

 

[tekstrand24]

My DS said my delivery date of the 13th is still correct.

 

[SkiWA]

SkiWA - talked to my DS yesterday he said 2 days to build. Maybe the build time is shorter with the new line, not sure. I confirmed my order 6/5 with deliver in September, 9/4 potential. If I were you I would seriously consider taking a long weekend and pickup your car in Fremont. You would need to workout the details with you DS.

Congrats on your car. The wait doesn't get any better.

Thanks for the info guys. I'll get in touch with my DS. I close on my house on 9/25, so hopefully I could schedule a pick up on 9/27!

- - - Updated - - -

Very true! It seems some people have a DS that's very proactive right from the beginning, and others have to go hunting theirs with a tranquilizer gun and butterfly net, but eventually they all do seem to start talking and are (generally) very helpful in setting expectations and getting ready to go for the big delivery date.

I heard from my DS about a week after confirmation, but it was pretty general with the delivery. It said Late September and all he asked was if I would be around and as it got closer we would be in touch. I have yet to receive any updates since. I thought I would have received notice of my VIN# at some point, but I never got any notification. I was checking MyTesla on a regular basis so I saw it when it appeared, but just thought that was weird. Just wondering if anything is even going on with my car and why some people have seen movement in their delivery timeframe and some have dates... thanks

 

[tduder]

In July, Tesla shut to reconfigure their factory to INCREASE production…

I am a causality of that “improvement”

After a week of “dancing around the issue” I got the bad news that my scheduled Aug 27[SUP]th[/SUP] delivery will not happen.
I had to pin down the “Delivery Specialist” asking point blank last night: “Is Tesla going to deliver my vehicle on Aug 27[SUP]th[/SUP]?
Answer, after some waffling: NO!
When?
Answer not sure yet…
They do not know when I will get my vehicle.

So we’re not visiting the Factory next week.

Sometime in September…
But I did get a followup email asking for payment the next day.

A thousand a week? Maybe next year…

 

[LonghornDub]

In July, Tesla shut to reconfigure their factory to INCREASE production…

I am a causality of that “improvement”

After a week of “dancing around the issue” I got the bad news that my scheduled Aug 27[SUP]th[/SUP] delivery will not happen.
I had to pin down the “Delivery Specialist” asking point blank last night: “Is Tesla going to deliver my vehicle on Aug 27[SUP]th[/SUP]?
Answer, after some waffling: NO!
When?
Answer not sure yet…
They do not know when I will get my vehicle.

So we’re not visiting the Factory next week.

Sometime in September…
But I did get a followup email asking for payment the next day.

A thousand a week? Maybe next year…

Expecting the same outcome for my Sept 4 delivery. My DS so far has stuck to that date, but I'm not buying it.