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Model S Reservation Tally
- Thread starter Joel
- Start date
With a third of production assigned to Europe, Tesla should deliver 10.000/3=3.333 cars in second half of 2013 to our side of the pond. So yes, it's possible that you will see your Model S this year in your driveway, regardless of options chosen when finalizing.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Really want to see more U.S, reservation numbers in January, Please.... If anyone has friends getting new reservations please ask them for their res# and date. We need to see more dates points for January.
Thanks
Thanks
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
New datapoint posted today:
res#18,521 on Jan 21st
So, for US reservations the current run rate is ~35/day.
Calculation: 156 US reservations since Jan 17th (previous datapoint). So that's 39/day (156/4) or 31/day (156/5)
So, my takeaway is US reservations alone are at run rate of ~ 14k/year using this small span of days in mid-jan (right after a price increase of $2500). This is a very good indicator of demand right after the price increase hangover (IMO).
My guess is that Tesla will have a sales rate over 40K/year by the end of 2013
full disclosure: I'm long TSLA (duh). Go Tesla. Go Elon.
res#18,521 on Jan 21st
So, for US reservations the current run rate is ~35/day.
Calculation: 156 US reservations since Jan 17th (previous datapoint). So that's 39/day (156/4) or 31/day (156/5)
So, my takeaway is US reservations alone are at run rate of ~ 14k/year using this small span of days in mid-jan (right after a price increase of $2500). This is a very good indicator of demand right after the price increase hangover (IMO).
My guess is that Tesla will have a sales rate over 40K/year by the end of 2013
full disclosure: I'm long TSLA (duh). Go Tesla. Go Elon.
Don't forget cancellations. In light of the delivery pace for very high production #'s, I think Tesla is experiencing a higher delay/cancellation rate than most calculations are accounting for. The delay in 60kWh should already be factored in as high 16,xxx are still getting late March / early April delivery estimates and by then all back ordered 60's should be complete. So everything that is not Red, 40kWh, non-air, international is accounted for with these newer production estimates. Personally I think 40, red, non-air is a low number (10% - 15% production max) so Tesla may be over 20% cancellation / delay rate. If that's the case and we use the same numbers moving forward, the 35/day reservation rate actually equals about 28 / day actual cars sold. They are expanding stores rapidly and opening stores internationally so hopefully that will make up for the difference along with people actually getting to drive / see the Model S.
I completely disagree that the whatever the cancellation rate was in the past will continue going forward. There's a huge difference between people reserving for some vague future event and then not being sure when it comes, and people reserving with the idea of getting the car soon. Also remember, you're talking about cancellation/delay. We don't know how much is just delay (for instance, waiting for a lease), and those will still turn into sales.
ModelS8794
Member
I think that's way off. That would imply under 5% of orders red, under 5% 40s, and under 5% non-air.
I expect that orders with any/all of that set of options will represent 30% +/- waiting until post-March. All conjecture tho; perhaps Elon will grace us with a comment on cancellation rates in a few weeks.
You're assuming there's no overlap between red/40/non-air. I would guess a significant portion of non-air will be 40kWh orders. The air suspension is clearly a benefit to most Buyer's so to give that up for a non-air that no one has driven yet and would significantly delay the order doesn't seem like a common decision among people that chose highly spec'd cars P85/85 and probably low even at 60. A poll here on the site previously had 40kWh at about 10%. That may turn out to be higher in the general population but I don't think by much because at 40kWh it starts to put a limit on the individual's ability to enjoy the car. That along with the 40kWh not being able to utilize the supercharger network, I feel like the 40 is still a very expensive car for most people and the majority won't want to make so many sacrifices when spending that much money so they will either choose a different car (Volt, Prius, most likely Cadillac ELR) or upgrade (obviously there are exceptions and 40 will fit a minority of people VERY well). With overlap between non-air and 40 being so high I think together they won't represent that high a number. Red is the only option that is probably evenly spread in demand among all battery sizes. However Red is historically a VERY low percentage color for a 4 door luxury sedan (less than 10%).
Of course I might be totally wrong on this. Remember that I am suggesting a 20% cancellation / delay rate, a good portion might be in the delay category. There's numerous reasons to delay not the least of which is leasing.
Of course I might be totally wrong on this. Remember that I am suggesting a 20% cancellation / delay rate, a good portion might be in the delay category. There's numerous reasons to delay not the least of which is leasing.
Of course you are assuming 400 cars a week production. Your error maybe in that figure. Execs state factory at full production rate but don't say what that is. 400 was the target for end of year it wasn't ever called full production rate before
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Reminder: Please post new reservations to this thread when you know of anyone getting a new reservation
Last edited:
ModelS8794
Member
Getting off topic but no I am not assuming there's no overlap. 5% of each of the three independently would be 14% of total orders, I.e. 5% 40s, 5% of the remaining 95% are red, 5% of the remaining 91.25% are non-air.
Even if 10% are 40s per the TMC poll ( it's higher as you say given the skew towards Tesla maniacs/obsessives we have here on TMC
) and 8% are red (among 9-really only 8- color selections I can't see Red being that low, maybe brown would be) you're already at 17.2% of orders, and up to 20% in no time once you consider even a tiny non-air option among 60/85s. I'd say that's a bare bare minimum estimate, and 30% +\- is much more realistic. If you add delays for leasing to that figure you're probably closer to 35-40% of orders. Voluntary Delays and cancels do not belong in the same category of course, when trying to analyze Teslas required reservation rate to meet production goals. All IMO.
Wardenclyffe
P2682 cancelled
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Hmmm ... looks like reservation total for January was under 900 for the US. January and February are the slowest months of the year for all car sales and Tesla was also dealing with the hangover of the additional orders of everyone locking in before the price increase so 900 should be the lowest monthly total this year.
However, even factoring that in I think Tesla can shift in the next couple of weeks to taking direct finalized orders rather than reservations. The last finalize figure we have was #18,062 finalized 1/30. At the rate Tesla was sending out finalize e-mails, within the next couple weeks there will no longer be a delay between the time someone reserves and the time they can finalize. This might actually be a good thing relative to cancellations/delays. Since anyone will be able to finalize when ordering, there's no point in Tesla offering the reservation process. Tesla would have better numbers for production projections because it would eliminate cancellations as well as the cost of cancellations (Tesla has to eat the credit card fee on returned deposits - about $150 per order).
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