Not all. I pointed out that silicon based anodes seems to be very close to commercialization. Dozens of companies are claiming that they are very close or already ready to start producing them. But no cells on market yet.
Odd as here is a paper describing a silicon anode from 2002
http://144.206.159.178/FT/641/86628/1466300.pdf
What stuff? Could you point out?
All battery development is an ongoing process. It all takes time to bring to a commercial state. Please show any battery product that has been developed one day and brought to commercialisation the next or even within a few years. Clearly your statement about silicon anodes shows your perception of how fast this "stuff" goes live.
Wait! You do realize that ampere hours have nothing to do with energy? And by comparing two cells using mAh you could not possibly compare capacity/energy density aka specific energy. Only exception is when you are comparing cells that based on identical chemistry, but that is clearly not the case in your quote.
Clearly it is! in my quote. "
The current top of the line Panasonic battery (same type)"
This is a questionable claim. NCA do have a good potential to be most cost effective(per Wh/kg) chemistry around. But price formation is a really complex thing.
If you can read in context, I am referring to a comparison of the two panasonic batteries (you know, of the same type, just different mAh capacity)
The cost of the 3400mAh is more than the 2100+60%
Please show me where you can get a Panasonic batteries of the type used by Tesla, with different capacities where there is no differential in price (same supplier etc). Again - you FAIL to read what I have written. I am not making a general statement about one company v another. This is a comparison of the same battery technology from the same manufacturer but with different capacities.
Plus one thing with upcoming upgrade to silicon anodes are multiple claims that it would enable cheaper batteries, per Wh/kg, while increasing specific energy.
Did I say that it would not. What I describe is the current situation. No doubt, the PANASONIC 3400mAh battery that described will come down in price and then there will be 3800mAh battery probably priced at the level of the CURRENT 3400. What I point out, is that your paying a premium for a higher density battery from the same manufacture (of the same battery type).
Yes, I totally agree.
Umm, yeah. But what is your point?
My point was that there is nothing revolutionary going to happen in a coming years. Basically Tesla switched from 170Wh/kg cells(Roadster) to 245Wh/kg cells(Model S) but that did not made Roadster obsolete. The switch have not affected resale price of Roadsters or their utility. And Tesla dose not offering upgraded battery packs for Roasters.
I would expect same trend to continue even after cells become 350Wh/kg or even 400Wh/kg dense.
Overall my recommendation to OP is to go with 85kWh battery. It will have better resale value and battery pack will degrade slower.
Buying 40kWh and hoping for tech to advance so better pack could be bought cheap in a "
few years" as an upgrade sounds like a bad plan. More sane plan would be to buy Model S now, then after new tech become available, Model S 2.0 or something sell old S and buy a new one. But current S battery pack wont be obsolete by any definition. New packs with new, not yet available advanced chemistries will do what? Shave off a hundred pounds of gross weight of vehicle? May be two or three, but that would be pretty much it. I would say other upgrades would be more important, like AWD, collision prevention/lane departure warning/blind spot detection/park assist/HUD etc and so on would add more value to upcoming versions of S then battery chemistry upgrades.
