Model S Update: Tesla Factory

[Todd Burch]

We just don't know at this point...it's a ways off, so speculation does nothing but inspire fear or deserved (or undeserved) confidence.

It could even be that the first group of signature models are going to be built more manually, "off the line", while some of the automation processes get into gear. Which could mean that cars get delivered before the factory is technically even publically open for business.

Who knows? Only Tesla.


And Evan,

Drive the Prius into the dirt...that's what I'm doing with my car .

 

[Niniux]

As far as I understand it, when a factory is 'open' it means that it has started actual production.

 

[Iz]

Startup time is also an important factor. Now that NUMMI is for all intents and purposes, a done deal, the next big objective (from my perspective) is retrofitting NUMMI with the equipment and getting that first Model S off the assembly line. The 18-month window mentioned some time ago would take us to 01.01.12, if the countdown were to begin 07.01.10. Once production begins, another component are the number of vehicles produced each week. Probably will be low for some time.

 

[Albern]

Does anyone know if the factory will still be called NUMMI when Tesla moves in?

 

[doug]

Does anyone know if the factory will still be called NUMMI when Tesla moves in?

Tesla is already calling it the Tesla Factory.

 

[ChargeIt!]

Does anyone know if the factory will still be called NUMMI when Tesla moves in?

Wouldn't think so, since NUMMI is New United Motor Manufacturing Inc., a now defunct entity. In the colloquial sense they may contiue calling it NUMMI. Or how about NUTTI :tongue: (New United Tesla Toyota Inc.)

 

[AnOutsider]

Tesla is already calling it the Tesla Factory.

They don't own ALL of it though right? So wonder if it'll still retain some sort of unified name.

 

[Albern]

Thanks guys!

Tesla is already calling it the Tesla Factory.

Gosh they couldn't come up with a more creative name than that? :smile:

Wouldn't think so, since NUMMI is New United Motor Manufacturing Inc., a now defunct entity. In the colloquial sense they may contiue calling it NUMMI. Or how about NUTTI :tongue: (New United Tesla Toyota Inc.)

:biggrin:. NUTTI is way better than "Tesla Factory".

They don't own ALL of it though right? So wonder if it'll still retain some sort of unified name.

If I understood the deal correctly, Tesla owns the entire factory consisting of the main facility (building), a portion of the land NUMMI sits on, and none of the major manufacturing and materials management tools / machinery on site. That's why if you may recall someone had mentioned that the $42 million seemed to be such a great deal.

 

[Kevin Harney]

I seem to recall TM saying several times that it would be 26 months from the time of factory acquisistion the the first car rolling off the line .... Am I right or remembering that incorrectly ?!?!?!

 

[Iz]

I seem to recall TM saying several times that it would be 26 months from the time of factory acquisistion the the first car rolling off the line .... Am I right or remembering that incorrectly ?!?!?!

When they were talking of a Downey site it was an 18-month window, working 2 shifts to get the factory up and running. I understand they will be retrofitting NUMMI. However, there must be some economies of scale already in place that should shorten that window. Additional months will be required to test and get the bugs out. 26 months.... Probably will not see my Model S until Fall 2012 :frown:

 

[Palpatine]

I seem to recall TM saying several times that it would be 26 months from the time of factory acquisistion the the first car rolling off the line .... Am I right or remembering that incorrectly ?!?!?!

That was based on a brown field site. Essentially they would have been building a factory from some other type of building.

This NUMMI factory surely has some advantages that will save a considerable amount of time. It is already designed as a car factory and there is a local labor force with car manufacturing experience.

It terms of building design and labor work force, Tesla has a huge head start. The previous labor force was something like 4,500 or more. Tesla only needs 1,000 people to handle their first year of production. So they can pick the most skilled and qualified.

I think 2012 is very much within reason for the first Model S cars to be delivered.

The main risk is the IPO at this point. If that goes off within any problems, then Tesla will have all of the funding they need and Elon with have enough personal cash to get through his divorce. Everyone will be happy. :biggrin:

 

[Iz]

Thanks James. Another advantage to NUMMI is that it was closed only several months ago. As a result, many of that qualified workforce is still available.

 

[EVNow]

Thanks James. Another advantage to NUMMI is that it was closed only several months ago. As a result, many of that qualified workforce is still available.

True - but getting qualified auto workforce in this economy can't be that hard anyway.

 

[graham]

If I understood the deal correctly, Tesla owns the entire factory consisting of the main facility (building), a portion of the land NUMMI sits on, and none of the major manufacturing and materials management tools / machinery on site.

That has been my understanding as well. What I would like to know is: Do they still own the track?!

 

[vfx]

Looking at the Cad animation in the IPO speak it's easy to see how much you can design a car without actually building one.

Make it plausible that they can hit the ground running once they get into the building,

Realistically though, the charge door could hit the driver's door though....

 

[stopcrazypp]

Realistically though, the charge door could hit the driver's door though....

Didn't the Roadster have a similar problem?

 

[ChargeIt!]

Didn't the Roadster have a similar problem?

Yes; fixed during the EP cycle.

 

[dpeilow]

UAW Plugs Union At Toyota Dealerships

So far the protests have targeted dealers in California and New York but reports are that the UAW will also picket the former NUMMI plant when electric car maker Tesla Motors Inc. reopens it with new partner Toyota.

Which insures a few questions will be asked about the UAW's goals.

Sometimes I just don't get the mindset of these people.

 

[Hells]

I'm sure the battery swap was but not sure about using Aluminum.

Look at it this way, they promised 150/300 miles battery pack, aluminium is still cheaper than the extra battery storage it would take to propel the car those claimed miles with a steel glider.

Aluminium vs steel is solely a question of economics.

In the article it says the hydraulic stamping tool will be useful for decades, but what about carbon fibers? I assume at some point they will switch to CF when it gets cost effective. BMW is already fooling around with it.

 

[ljbad4life]

Look at it this way, they promised 150/300 miles battery pack, aluminium is still cheaper than the extra battery storage it would take to propel the car those claimed miles with a steel glider.

Aluminium vs steel is solely a question of economics.

In the article it says the hydraulic stamping tool will be useful for decades, but what about carbon fibers? I assume at some point they will switch to CF when it gets cost effective. BMW is already fooling around with it.

Very Logical, but how long will it take for CF to come down in price? CF has been on the "scene" for almost 20 years (in practical applications). The only way I can see Tesla going to cf in the near future for the model s (remember it has to cost ~50k and be profitable) is that there is a significant reduction in the price of batteries. SO that the use of CF will help increase range (due to weight loss) without impacting either the price of the model s or Tesla's margins on the S.