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Model S/X Owners Have Priority Model 3 Orders Over Non-Owners

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That's a big if. And given all the 15,000 new S and X owners per month up until then can jump the queue there could be as many as 100,000 cars to be delivered before non-tesla owners can start getting cars. That makes it realistically 2018, possibly even 2019. Wow.
We just added 15k+ employee pre-orders to whatever that number will be. I'm still going to plunk down $1000 to reserve a 3, but at this point I think there's a good chance the 200k limit will be hit well before my VIN rolls of the line. Even if the current owners can only queue up for a week or so, I think we may see a ~80k-100k long line for new owners.
 
We just added 15k+ employee pre-orders to whatever that number will be. I'm still going to plunk down $1000 to reserve a 3, but at this point I think there's a good chance the 200k limit will be hit well before my VIN rolls of the line. Even if the current owners can only queue up for a week or so, I think we may see a ~80k-100k long line for new owners.

We have an extremely skewed perception of interest on this forum. If there are 80-100k reservations from employees and current owners, I'll eat my Model 3.

Don't forget employees/owners outside of the US may very well only get priority over only other people in their region. That could even apply to regions within the US as well.

As for the tax credit, the 200k limit is not the absolute end of the $7500 credit. The credit extends for the rest of the business quarter during which that threshold is met, as well as one additional quarter. That could be up to 5.999 months after Tesla sells their 200,000th car in the US. Don't forget that's US-only. Tesla has 15k employees worldwide. Most are US-based, but not all. And there were ~65k Teslas sold in the US at the end of 2015. The number of actual "owners" is less. Hitting 80k+ in owner/employee reservations would require more people than are even eligible.

By the time the Model 3 starts shipping, production numbers will have ramped up well beyond what we know of Tesla now. The number of orders they'll be able to crank through in that 3-6 months after hitting 200k will, I'm sure, be a pleasant surprise to a lot of new owners hoping for that tax credit. I'm one of those people. Place your order as soon as you can, then go pop open a cold one and enjoy the reveal. We'll all be happy in 2 years.
 
We have an extremely skewed perception of interest on this forum. If there are 80-100k reservations from employees and current owners, I'll eat my Model 3.

Don't forget employees/owners outside of the US may very well only get priority over only other people in their region. That could even apply to regions within the US as well.

As for the tax credit, the 200k limit is not the absolute end of the $7500 credit. The credit extends for the rest of the business quarter during which that threshold is met, as well as one additional quarter. That could be up to 5.999 months after Tesla sells their 200,000th car in the US. Don't forget that's US-only. Tesla has 15k employees worldwide. Most are US-based, but not all. And there were ~65k Teslas sold in the US at the end of 2015. The number of actual "owners" is less. Hitting 80k+ in owner/employee reservations would require more people than are even eligible.

By the time the Model 3 starts shipping, production numbers will have ramped up well beyond what we know of Tesla now. The number of orders they'll be able to crank through in that 3-6 months after hitting 200k will, I'm sure, be a pleasant surprise to a lot of new owners hoping for that tax credit. I'm one of those people. Place your order as soon as you can, then go pop open a cold one and enjoy the reveal. We'll all be happy in 2 years.
That'd be nice to see. Part of the 80k-100k guesstimate is current owners getting priority reservations on more than one car. If that's not possible, then you're almost certainly correct. Still, it could in theory be close. There have been ~65k Model S/X sales in the US so far, so if every owner reserves a model 3, or owners can reserve more than one 3, I could see hitting 80k. That would require a third of all current owners reserving two model 3s, another sixth reserving one, and another 10k+ US employee reservations assuming most of the existing 15k are US employees. Like you said, it also depends on how quickly Tesla ramps production. If they can ramp quickly, then a lot of people can get the tax credit. With that said, even if I could get the full tax credit, if the least expensive 3 I can order is $50k-$60k, I'd seriously reconsider it.
 
That'd be nice to see. Part of the 80k-100k guesstimate is current owners getting priority reservations on more than one car. If that's not possible, then you're almost certainly correct. Still, it could in theory be close. There have been ~65k Model S/X sales in the US so far, so if every owner reserves a model 3, or owners can reserve more than one 3, I could see hitting 80k. That would require a third of all current owners reserving two model 3s, another sixth reserving one, and another 10k+ US employee reservations assuming most of the existing 15k are US employees. Like you said, it also depends on how quickly Tesla ramps production. If they can ramp quickly, then a lot of people can get the tax credit. With that said, even if I could get the full tax credit, if the least expensive 3 I can order is $50k-$60k, I'd seriously reconsider it.

I would expect there will be a cap on the number of orders that take priority per person. I'd bet money on that cap to be "1," even if that puts current owners' second order ahead of whomever they ordered in front of chronologically. There's 0% chance every current owner orders a Model 3. Again, we're talking reservations vs. orders. Like with anything else that has a refundable deposit, there will be some statistically significant percentage of people who put down $1000 in two weeks then bail on the idea before fronting the $35000+ for their car to go into production. I can't tell you how many people that will be, but it will be some, and some of those people will be ahead of you and me in line.

There's also the added element of the sub-groups we're placed into once options are selected and orders are placed. It stands to reason that current owners would be likely to order higher-optioned versions of the Model 3, in which case they'd probably be ahead of you and me in line anyway. Employees are another story. That considered, if any new owners do order higher-optioned models, they could very well end up ahead of SOME owners who ordered cheaper models.

We don't know exactly what the breakdown will be, but your analysis is basically the "worst case scenario, on crack." I appreciate the whole "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" idea, but I'm confident the end result will be a lot more favorable to new owners than some people on these boards have been suggesting.

Again, if those people were going to be ahead of you anyway cause they check every box on the order sheet, the way it's phrased in them getting priority for being current owners is really just a PR stunt for showing customer loyalty. They know their audience well enough by now.
 
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I would expect there will be a cap on the number of orders that take priority per person. I'd bet money on that cap to be "1," even if that puts current owners' second order ahead of whomever they ordered in front of chronologically. There's 0% chance every current owner orders a Model 3. Again, we're talking reservations vs. orders. Like with anything else that has a refundable deposit, there will be some statistically significant percentage of people who put down $1000 in two weeks then bail on the idea before fronting the $35000+ for their car to go into production. I can't tell you how many people that will be, but it will be some, and some of those people will be ahead of you and me in line.

There's also the added element of the sub-groups we're placed into once options are selected and orders are placed. It stands to reason that current owners would be likely to order higher-optioned versions of the Model 3, in which case they'd probably be ahead of you and me in line anyway. Employees are another story. That considered, if any new owners do order higher-optioned models, they could very well end up ahead of SOME owners who ordered cheaper models.

We don't know exactly what the breakdown will be, but your analysis is basically the "worst case scenario, on crack." I appreciate the whole "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" idea, but I'm confident the end result will be a lot more favorable to new owners than some people on these boards have been suggesting.

Again, if those people were going to be ahead of you anyway cause they check every box on the order sheet, the way it's phrased in them getting priority for being current owners is really just a PR stunt for showing customer loyalty. They know their audience well enough by now.
I wouldn't say it's the worse case scenario, that's every current S/X owner ordering two model 3s and another 15k US employee reservations. ;) I wish someone had info on how many Model X owners/reservation holders also own a Model S. That would I think give an excellent baseline for reservations of model 3s by existing owners. Like you said, the other aspect may be options. I wouldn't be surprised if the queue was comprised two (maybe three?) smaller queues. Say ~20k US employees/~40k current owners and ~100k new owners, with the employee/owner queue and new owner queue each basing build order off of some combination of reservation date and option level.

It could be that a smaller queue plus basing build order on the options ordered still puts the full tax credit out of reach for March 31st/April 1st new owner reservations if they don't choose a highly optioned car. At the same time, build volume matters a lot. NUMMI was apparently cranking out ~75k vehicles per quarter back in the day. If Tesla can ramp to that capacity within a month or so of the 2017 Q4 launch, I'm guessing the first ~150k cars produced will be eligible for the full tax credit.
 
If they use the same methodology they have used in the past the following is how it will work.

The reservation sequence number only sets the general order you are invited to configure and order but in the end there is only one line. There are only two factors which determine where you are in line:

#1 What you order? Certain options move you up and and certain options you back in line. The most expensive configuration moves you ahead, in the case of the Model X is it was the P90D, which moved you towards the top of the line and if you ordered the Premium and Autopilot options it moved you to the very top of the line. On the other hand if you ordered carrbon wheels or the 5-seat options it moved you to the back of the line. Until ordering starts and a history is developed you won't know what specific options have the most impact and by that time you will already placed your order.

#2 When you placed your order? The reservation sequence number determines when you are allowed to design, configure, order and confirm with employee and prior Tesla owners going first. If you delay your decision at this point it can have a major impact. Once ordering starts the reservation sequence number no longer plays a role at all, the order date is what becomes important. There are still Model X purchasers who don't understand this. What matters is the date you place your order but it is still secondary to what you order.

Therefore there is only one line which is based on two factors, what you order and when you order it. Only if two people order the exact same configuration does the order date play a role. So you will have employees and prior owners who only order base cars. They will get their cars after those who ordered the loaded configuration whether they are employees, prior owners or the public.

Again this is how it worked in the past and there is nothing to indicate it would work any differently with the Model 3. There are not a bunch of queues just one hopefully long line.

Don't forget to register and enter your reservation data into Model3Tracker.info .
 
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I think the most important thing about current owners getting priority, is how long.

If you want to say they get priority over orders placed in the same month, or even the same quarter, I think that's totally fair.

If you're saying, they get priority reserving in Sept 2017 vs somebody on Mar 31 with similar options, then that just seems wrong.


As for Tesla workers reserving Model 3's, it's not a new iPhone, it's a $35,000 vehicle. People aren't going to just get one because they work there and it's their latest product. I doubt that it's anywhere close to most employees.
 
That'd be nice to see. Part of the 80k-100k guesstimate is current owners getting priority reservations on more than one car. If that's not possible, then you're almost certainly correct. Still, it could in theory be close. There have been ~65k Model S/X sales in the US so far, so if every owner reserves a model 3, or owners can reserve more than one 3, I could see hitting 80k. That would require a third of all current owners reserving two model 3s, another sixth reserving one, and another 10k+ US employee reservations assuming most of the existing 15k are US employees. Like you said, it also depends on how quickly Tesla ramps production. If they can ramp quickly, then a lot of people can get the tax credit. With that said, even if I could get the full tax credit, if the least expensive 3 I can order is $50k-$60k, I'd seriously reconsider it.

I'd pay $15,000 over the base to "guarantee" 1/2 off that $15k. Probably more.

But, nobody will have a chance to actually make that choice I don't think, because I'm not sure how much info Tesla will give people on what options do to delivery date.
 
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I'd pay $15,000 over the base to "guarantee" 1/2 off that $15k. Probably more.

But, nobody will have a chance to actually make that choice I don't think, because I'm not sure how much info Tesla will give people on what options do to delivery date.
That was my plan. If I know I'll get the $7500 I will max out options. If not, then I'll have to scale back some.
 
I'd pay $15,000 over the base to "guarantee" 1/2 off that $15k. Probably more.

But, nobody will have a chance to actually make that choice I don't think, because I'm not sure how much info Tesla will give people on what options do to delivery date.

They always have before. I fully assume they will again. The whole situation is going to be a lot clearer when they get close to shipping and you are finalizing orders. For right now, you just reserve and wait.
 
I think the most important thing about current owners getting priority, is how long.

If you want to say they get priority over orders placed in the same month, or even the same quarter, I think that's totally fair.

If you're saying, they get priority reserving in Sept 2017 vs somebody on Mar 31 with similar options, then that just seems wrong.


As for Tesla workers reserving Model 3's, it's not a new iPhone, it's a $35,000 vehicle. People aren't going to just get one because they work there and it's their latest product. I doubt that it's anywhere close to most employees.

This is pretty much where I am. It's irritating to me that current owners are getting priority but as long as there's some sort of reasonable time limit, I'm hoping the delay will be rendered mostly moot by a nice production ramp. (I'm fully supportive of employees getting first dibs, though.) Facing a significant penalty in tax credit and/or time would make me very sad. There is no chance I could have afforded any Tesla before the 3 or I would have gladly done so. As it is I have a tiny amount of stock and that is the full extent of my ability to encourage them financially before they get my reservation money.

I drive a 15 year old sub-compact with 200,000 miles on it, and I am doing my darndest to have a Tesla be the next car I buy. It will be harder to do that the further back in line I am pushed. Our cars won't last forever - even the 'newer' one in the household is 8 years old with 130k miles. If either of them die we'll have to replace them and that costs more than keeping a reliable car going, even if it's old. In another year we should have no credit card debt left and no more car payment; I'm really looking forward to being able to buy a brand new car for the first time. I should be able to afford a moderately-optioned version. I'll be there at a store when they open on 3/31 but that's all I can do towards placing myself high up in the line. Tesla's reservation order plans are out of my hands so I'll just grin and bear it, but setbacks in the time frame of receiving the car are discouraging nonetheless.
 
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...It's irritating to me that current owners are getting priority but as long as there's some sort of reasonable time limit, I'm hoping the delay will be rendered mostly moot by a nice production ramp...
Many current owners love their Teslas so much that they don't want to miss out on what could be a fantastic BEV. One advantage should be a shorter charge time, therefore a quicker trip time. However, if Model 3 doesn't measure up during the "Design Studio" configuration, those current owners may be happiest to stay with Model S and X and drop their reservation.
 
image.jpeg
The picture above is of my Model X.
________________________________________________________________________________________

I think there are still many individuals who read this forum who think the purpose of the Federal EV Tax Credit was to allow the lower income population to afford to buy an electric vehicle. This EV Tax Credit was not meant to be a form of welfare. There are specific state level incentives and programs which serve the purpose to help lower income individuals afford electric cars but not this federal program.

The purpose of the Federal EV Tax Credit is incentivize people to purchase an EV car rather than a traditional car with a gas combustion engine therefore helping the adoption of new technology and the widespread use of electric vehicles. So it is currently meetings this purpose whether it is a person in the higher, mid or lower income levels who are purchasing these cars.

By Tesla creating such superb vehicles people will purchase their cars regardless of the incentives and there will be waiting lines to make the purchase. Those who are in the process of purchasing a new car of similar cost might decide to purchase the Tesla instead but the credit will be one of many factors not the only factor.

There have been bills introduced in the past few years which would have raised the cap from 200,000 to 500,000 and which would have increased the credit from $7,500 to $10,000. Neither of which could gain any support in a deadlocked congress. It doesn't look like this will change anytime soon. From my knowledge there isn't even anything pending to raise these levels.

I personally find it offensive when people indicate those who already own a Tesla don't deserve the credit, the credit which should be going to lower income individuals. It would be different if the purpose of the credit was to help low income earners to buy an electric car but it isn't, matter of fact it is the opposite, the only people who can take full advantage of it are mid to high wage earners. To me this is the mindset of the most current generations who feel they are entitled and expect things to be handed to them.

Both my wife and I put ourselves through college as neither of our parents could afford to put us through school. We were the first in our families to get a higher education and we both worked and went school at the same time to be able to afford college. Early on it was the choice between eating and buying school books. Many nights it was just rice or just potatoes.

During our life we both worked and at times we had more than one job. We saved and invested our money (some of it in TSLA) and after 40 years we have retired and saved enough money to buy a Tesla. No one ever gave us a handout nor did we ask for one. I think we deserve the Tesla and the $7,500 rebate. In several years (earlier if it is meant to be) I plan on getting my wife a Model 3 and hopefully it will be in time to get another rebate as she recently donated her Prius to someone who had no form of transportation and was the single mother of three. In the meantime I am sharing my Tesla Model X with my wife.
 
As an owner, they do a great job of showing their gratitude by giving us priority... I'm just wondering though, is it really a benefit to get the first cars off the production line. As with the MX, there are a lot of issues and kinks that had to be worked out with Signature editions. In the long run, it may be more beneficial to wait a couple of months.
 
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View attachment 167827 The picture above is of my Model X.
________________________________________________________________________________________

I think there are still many individuals who read this forum who think the purpose of the Federal EV Tax Credit was to allow the lower income population to afford to buy an electric vehicle. This EV Tax Credit was not meant to be a form of welfare. There are specific state level incentives and programs which serve the purpose to help lower income individuals afford electric cars but not this federal program.

The purpose of the Federal EV Tax Credit is incentivize people to purchase an EV car rather than a traditional car with a gas combustion engine therefore helping the adoption of new technology and the widespread use of electric vehicles. So it is currently meetings this purpose whether it is a person in the higher, mid or lower income levels who are purchasing these cars.

By Tesla creating such superb vehicles people will purchase their cars regardless of the incentives and there will be waiting lines to make the purchase. Those who are in the process of purchasing a new car of similar cost might decide to purchase the Tesla instead but the credit will be one of many factors not the only factor.

There have been bills introduced in the past few years which would have raised the cap from 200,000 to 500,000 and which would have increased the credit from $7,500 to $10,000. Neither of which could gain any support in a deadlocked congress. It doesn't look like this will change anytime soon. From my knowledge there isn't even anything pending to raise these levels.

I personally find it offensive when people indicate those who already own a Tesla don't deserve the credit, the credit which should be going to lower income individuals. It would be different if the purpose of the credit was to help low income earners to buy an electric car but it isn't, matter of fact it is the opposite, the only people who can take full advantage of it are mid to high wage earners. To me this is the mindset of the most current generations who feel they are entitled and expect things to be handed to them.

Both my wife and I put ourselves through college as neither of our parents could afford to put us through school. We were the first in our families to get a higher education and we both worked and went school at the same time to be able to afford college. Early on it was the choice between eating and buying school books. Many nights it was just rice or just potatoes.

During our life we both worked and at times we had more than one job. We saved and invested our money (some of it in TSLA) and after 40 years we have retired and saved enough money to buy a Tesla. No one ever gave us a handout nor did we ask for one. I think we deserve the Tesla and the $7,500 rebate. In several years (earlier if it is meant to be) I plan on getting my wife a Model 3 and hopefully it will be in time to get another rebate as she recently donated her Prius to someone who had no form of transportation and was the single mother of three. In the meantime I am sharing my Tesla Model X with my wife.
Well said!!!
 
There will be a system, devlooed by forum user where reservation holders are encouraged to put their reservation sequence number and where they can see where they are in relation to other reservation holders. Later this system will be used to track key dates and information about the options on their car. This system is voluntary and not related to Tesla Motors. The link to the system will be posted on March 32st.

Very funny (March32st)
 
IMO

Employees have until the 31st to reserve and get ahead of everyone.
Existing owners have from 10AM PST until midnight on the 31st to get ahead of new customers. (hence online starts when reveal starts)
New Customers who order on the 31st get in line just after midnight.
After that point everyone gets in line together.

IMO