Only if you do a lot of road trips and Supercharging. I have free Supercharging and very seldom use Superchargers. It is too convenient to charge at night in my garage and head out full every morning. Not worth any potential cost savings.
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Model X Hardware Updates
- Thread starter trematix
- Start date
Only if you do a lot of road trips and Supercharging. I have free Supercharging and very seldom use Superchargers. It is too convenient to charge at night in my garage and head out full every morning. Not worth any potential cost savings.
Put it this way. I had 10k free SC miles on my account (covering both my cars) as of June when we bought the X.
We've since gone on a 2,000-mile trip with both cars, a 3,300-mile trip with the 3, a 1,200 mile trip with the X, and a 350-mile trip with the X.
We have 5,500 free miles left. Unlimited is not worth as much as you might think. Cool to have, yes, but IMO not worth altering a purchase decision on.
We've since gone on a 2,000-mile trip with both cars, a 3,300-mile trip with the 3, a 1,200 mile trip with the X, and a 350-mile trip with the X.
We have 5,500 free miles left. Unlimited is not worth as much as you might think. Cool to have, yes, but IMO not worth altering a purchase decision on.
Depends on your driving habits, but ultimately not worth changing for free supercharging. That being said, I've used over 6,500kw in supercharging so I'm happy I have unlimited.
Agreed. Around 2,350 kWh in Supercharging here, which is worth something like $600. Nice on road trips for sure, but that's also 32.5 hours of my time (thanks, TeslaFi stats!), plus time to get to and from the SC. Let's conservatively call it 50 hours.
Now let's compare that to using free SC miles vs charging at home. That same $600 in SC value equates to about $150 for my home off-peak charging cost. My free time is worth more than $3/hour to me, so Supercharging when I could plug in at home is not even close to worth it even when it's free. Moreover, while my home off-peak rate (~7¢/kWh) is very good, the calculation doesn't change to make free SC worth it even if your cost sucks. Let's say you're paying 40¢/kWh at home/work. Now the question is whether your free time is worth more than $17/hr to you. And that's basically a worst-case scenario.
Free Supercharging, IMO, has value on road trips and for folks who actually cannot charge at home or work. As a routine replacement for home charging, it's just a non-starter for nearly everyone.
Ryshaw
Member
The best answer, unfortunately, is that your guess is good as ours. At this point there are really three options. The change is made overnight in the coming months, the change is announced on “Battery Day” or Elon Musk leaks via Twitter, and the changes are worked in to manufacturing at some unspecified date. I listened to the entire earnings call yesterday, and S&X were at best an afterthought at this point, and I would assume that any changes that will be made are just an efficiency gained from MY & CT at this point. That all being said, I still expect to see a 20% improvement to range at some point this year, which is what I’m waiting for to pull the trigger.
wreighven
Member
Zaxxon I agree with your inference. I don't think we'll see 120KwH until at least Q4, and I am not waiting. If I'm wrong, I'm also OK with that. 328 miles of range is plenty for my driving habits (and like I said, I'm keeping my X for 10 years / 180,000 miles).
Similar to my thoughts. And I also think it's not at all clear that this upgrade will be 'free.' I think the most likely outcome is they keep the 100 kWh option and introduce a 'Plaid' higher-capacity supercar at the 'old' S/X pricing (where cars routinely sold for well over $120k). At least for awhile. Makes too much sense in my mind.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
I guess this is a personal preference thing. In the last 3 years of driving coast to coast 4 times, I haven't been in the position of wishing it were faster. I welcome the breaks and rest every 3 hours of driving. I think I am just too old to care
I guess this is a personal preference thing. In the last 3 years of driving coast to coast 4 times, I haven't been in the position of wishing it were faster. I welcome the breaks and rest every 3 hours of driving. I think I am just too old to care
I occasionally wish it'd be faster, but that's because the vast majority of existing SCs cap out at 150 kW. The Raven X can already do 200 kW, so once the SC network catches up to current X vehicles, I think I'll be satisfied.
That's not to say that I won't welcome 350 kW charging when it does come, just that basing a new vehicle purchase on being able to charge at > 200 kW seems like a strange hill to die on for me. We're talking a difference of at most several (single-digit) minutes, a few times/year. And in my road-tripping experience, half the time you want charging to take a little longer because you're for eg at a sit-down restaurant and would like to enjoy your meal rather than rushing back to the car.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
Good points, and you hit a couple of them for me. Sometimes, I have to go back out to the car and move it during a restaurant meal. Not a big deal to me, but one of those times that it is too fast to charge. I think the only time I want it to charge faster is to get the wife away from shopping
It's nice to see high rated chargers come along, but for my senior citizen model aging X, I don't think it is ever going to be able to take advantage of any of those faster chargers. At least it hasn't on the last road trip where I stopped at a few V3 stalls.
For me not the charging speed but the interior design would be a reason to wait. Seeing CT and Y having the same landscape mode of the MID I would Tesla expect for efficiency reasons to introduce the same clean design in the S/X with a landscape based center screen and a smaller in front of the driver. Watching YT in portrait mode is annoying…
I have been through the Tesla Price drops with my Q3 2018 purchase of a Model 3. So I know the fear.
I just traded my Model 3 in for an X in December, and I too was worried. But I went ahead for a few reasons
I just traded my Model 3 in for an X in December, and I too was worried. But I went ahead for a few reasons
- Tesla is making their cars margin accretive over time, any changes will likely make the Model X less luxurious over time
- If you look at the X and S, over time Tesla has taken away luxury/cool factors. The Alcantara has been scaled back. Seats have become more manual, less power. The audio system has become more basic. Etc.
- I expect this trend to continue when they make the new interior. The Model 3 is NOT luxurious, and that design language in the X/S wont be as well. They will likely reduce the size of the large driver display currently, and take other steps that make the car cheaper to make, but in line with their design language.
- If a significantly larger battery comes out or performance upgrade Tesla is going to charge more for it. Not less. Remember the 20k ludicrous upgrade...
- 330 Miles of Range matches my bladder and hunger cycle for long trips
- I routinely do a 2000 mile trip every 8-12 weeks, and when I went from the Model 3 to the X I was worried. But the range now is about the length of time that I want to drive non-stop on a roadtrip.
- Significant improvements in charging speed would be great, but I cant reach the 200kw that I am capable of at most stations as they are limited.
- It's the software compatibility that matters
- As Tesla continues its March to be software focus. The big thing that matters is software compatibility for new features. Going from AP1 to AP2 is big. MCU1 to 2 is an issue as well (for now, if they can bring compatibility then less so). Because those are functionality breaks and that's where you see the big price cliffs in the used market. Right now we dont have much indication that we are expecting to see any major new generational changes that will fork future features.
- Q1 is the slow quarter, it would have been a great window to announce S/X refresh, with the total cessation of the tax credit. It is a demand lever
- Given how Q1 is normally a slow quarter, I would have expected them to use a S/X refresh announcement to spike Q1. But they clearly feel like they dont need to. They aren't worried about S/X now. It's all Model Y focus now. So why do anything to make life harder at Tesla and disrupt the Model Y hype cycle. He also reiterated on the call that plaid was coming Q3 of the year. So I really dont believe they are going to push a full interior redesign and then push plaid. It would have a much bigger impact to the news cycle to drop it all at once.
- Imagine if the raven roll out was in parts. One month the new motor change, 2 months later the suspension, etc. There would not have been a cohesive story and it would have been harder to get folks to want to upgrade.
- Given how Q1 is normally a slow quarter, I would have expected them to use a S/X refresh announcement to spike Q1. But they clearly feel like they dont need to. They aren't worried about S/X now. It's all Model Y focus now. So why do anything to make life harder at Tesla and disrupt the Model Y hype cycle. He also reiterated on the call that plaid was coming Q3 of the year. So I really dont believe they are going to push a full interior redesign and then push plaid. It would have a much bigger impact to the news cycle to drop it all at once.
- Tax law was changing in my state and buying in 2019 laden it about 3k cheaper for me.
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vinny84
Member
I have been through the Tesla Price drops with my Q3 2018 purchase of a Model 3. So I know the fear.
I just traded my Model 3 in for an X in December, and I too was worried. But I went ahead for a few reasons
- Tesla is making their cars margin accretive over time, any changes will likely make the Model X less luxurious over time
- If you look at the X and S, over time Tesla has taken away luxury/cool factors. The Alcantara has been scaled back. Seats have become more manual, less power. The audio system has become more basic. Etc.
- I expect this trend to continue when they make the new interior. The Model 3 is NOT luxurious, and that design language in the X/S wont be as well. They will likely reduce the size of the large driver display currently, and take other steps that make the car cheaper to make, but in line with their design language.
- If a significantly larger battery comes out or performance upgrade Tesla is going to charge more for it. Not less. Remember the 20k ludicrous upgrade...
- 330 Miles of Range matches my bladder and hunger cycle for long trips
- I routinely do a 2000 mile trip every 8-12 weeks, and when I went from the Model 3 to the X I was worried. But the range now is about the length of time that I want to drive non-stop on a roadtrip.
- Significant improvements in charging speed would be great, but I cant reach the 200kw that I am capable of at most stations as they are limited.
- It's the software compatibility that matters
- As Tesla continues its March to be software focus. The big thing that matters is software compatibility for new features. Going from AP1 to AP2 is big. MCU1 to 2 is an issue as well (for now, if they can bring compatibility then less so). Because those are functionality breaks and that's where you see the big price cliffs in the used market. Right now we dont have much indication that we are expecting to see any major new generational changes that will fork future features.
- Q1 is the slow quarter, it would have been a great window to announce S/X refresh, with the total cessation of the tax credit. It is a demand lever
- Given how Q1 is normally a slow quarter, I would have expected them to use a S/X refresh announcement to spike Q1. But they clearly feel like they dont need to. They aren't worried about S/X now. It's all Model Y focus now. So why do anything to make life harder at Tesla and disrupt the Model Y hype cycle. He also reiterated on the call that plaid was coming Q3 of the year. So I really dont believe they are going to push a full interior redesign and then push plaid. It would have a much bigger impact to the news cycle to drop it all at once.
- Imagine if the raven roll out was in parts. One month the new motor change, 2 months later the suspension, etc. There would not have been a cohesive story and it would have been harder to get folks to want to upgrade.
The best time to buy would be ideally when the new changes are announced but there is still Raven inventory on hand. Tesla will likely incentive those to move. Buying a 2020 Raven Performance fully loaded for 95k would be a steal...
- Tax law was changing in my state
Well said.
I think price of a S/X with bigger battery will be same or less, not more. Range and price of CT is a clear indication that they had a big breakthrough in battery tech.
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I have been through the Tesla Price drops with my Q3 2018 purchase of a Model 3. So I know the fear.
I just traded my Model 3 in for an X in December, and I too was worried. But I went ahead for a few reasons
- Tesla is making their cars margin accretive over time, any changes will likely make the Model X less luxurious over time
- If you look at the X and S, over time Tesla has taken away luxury/cool factors. The Alcantara has been scaled back. Seats have become more manual, less power. The audio system has become more basic. Etc.
- I expect this trend to continue when they make the new interior. The Model 3 is NOT luxurious, and that design language in the X/S wont be as well. They will likely reduce the size of the large driver display currently, and take other steps that make the car cheaper to make, but in line with their design language.
- If a significantly larger battery comes out or performance upgrade Tesla is going to charge more for it. Not less. Remember the 20k ludicrous upgrade...
- 330 Miles of Range matches my bladder and hunger cycle for long trips
- I routinely do a 2000 mile trip every 8-12 weeks, and when I went from the Model 3 to the X I was worried. But the range now is about the length of time that I want to drive non-stop on a roadtrip.
- Significant improvements in charging speed would be great, but I cant reach the 200kw that I am capable of at most stations as they are limited.
- It's the software compatibility that matters
- As Tesla continues its March to be software focus. The big thing that matters is software compatibility for new features. Going from AP1 to AP2 is big. MCU1 to 2 is an issue as well (for now, if they can bring compatibility then less so). Because those are functionality breaks and that's where you see the big price cliffs in the used market. Right now we dont have much indication that we are expecting to see any major new generational changes that will fork future features.
- Q1 is the slow quarter, it would have been a great window to announce S/X refresh, with the total cessation of the tax credit. It is a demand lever
- Given how Q1 is normally a slow quarter, I would have expected them to use a S/X refresh announcement to spike Q1. But they clearly feel like they dont need to. They aren't worried about S/X now. It's all Model Y focus now. So why do anything to make life harder at Tesla and disrupt the Model Y hype cycle. He also reiterated on the call that plaid was coming Q3 of the year. So I really dont believe they are going to push a full interior redesign and then push plaid. It would have a much bigger impact to the news cycle to drop it all at once.
- Imagine if the raven roll out was in parts. One month the new motor change, 2 months later the suspension, etc. There would not have been a cohesive story and it would have been harder to get folks to want to upgrade.
The best time to buy would be ideally when the new changes are announced but there is still Raven inventory on hand. Tesla will likely incentive those to move. Buying a 2020 Raven Performance fully loaded for 95k would be a steal...
- Tax law was changing in my state
I agree with your thinking and why I decided to buy a Raven 4 months ago.
What reduction in Radio did they make? I think it’s pretty awesome.
You make a good point of Tesla “bundling” a few things to incentivize buying, like Raven. If it’s to incremental it’s like the frog in the boiling pot syndrome.
I think Tesla could easily switch to a 120kwh battery for the same price at some point. Could be a boost in price initially to clear out old stock then drop price. Or it might initially be bundled with plaid for example.
We always want to buy at a good time knowing potentially something better is coming. The post Raven/PriceDrop/IncludeEverything was a good window. If I was buying an S today I might wait now. If I was buying an X I might still buy today, because it could be a longer wait on X.
I think some things depend on how Y goes.
I expect they will keep prices close to where they are. They will cheapen some stuff but add attractive features difficult to ignore.
In early 2017 I wanted to put off my X purchase, convinced a refresh of the interior must be imminent. Then they updated... something—I forget what—the 100 battery? and so I took the plunge. I'd still be awaiting that interior refresh, in the meantime have enjoyed my X for three years now.
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