Model X Production ramp up discussion

[Lyon]

So, we know from the conference call that they hoped to be up to a couple hundred per week by the end of year. From my recollection of the Model S production ramp there was a very slow ramp where they built (you know, completed cars off the end of the line) 5 cars a week, then 10, then 20 and so on for a few weeks until they really flip the switch. It's pretty clear, given that Bonnie has yet to hear anything, that nothing like that is happening now with Model X.

All that's to say that I think Tesla's going to be a week or two late hitting that steep part of the production curve and most Signatures (for the US) won't be built until 2016.

 

[Matias]

I asked for a week notice.

Ok.

 

[MitchJi]

So, we know from the conference call that they hoped to be up to a couple hundred per week by the end of year. From my recollection of the Model S production ramp there was a very slow ramp where they built (you know, completed cars off the end of the line) 5 cars a week, then 10, then 20 and so on for a few weeks until they really flip the switch. It's pretty clear, given that Bonnie has yet to hear anything, that nothing like that is happening now with Model X.

All that's to say that I think Tesla's going to be a week or two late hitting that steep part of the production curve and most Signatures (for the US) won't be built until 2016.

I think it's clear that comparing Tesla's ability to ramp production now and their approach now, with years ago when they launched the MS is incorrect. It looks they are trying to nail every production problem, and then almost literally flip the switch and start producing several hundred cars per week.

OTOH your conclusion could be correct.

 

[Lyon]

I think it's clear that comparing Tesla's ability to ramp production now and their approach now, with years ago when they launched the MS is incorrect. It looks they are trying to nail every production problem, and then almost literally flip the switch and start producing several hundred cars per week.

OTOH your conclusion could be correct.

Oh, you're absolutely correct, Tesla's not at all the same car company they were three years ago and they will likely ramp Model X much faster than they did Model S. That said, the Model S ramp is the only other Tesla ramp I'm familiar with so it's really my only basis for comparison... it's not like Tesla's giving us any real information.

I think it's pretty clear that Tesla hasn't begun producing Signature vehicles at this point or Bonnie would have been contacted.

 

[hobbes]

I think it's pretty clear that Tesla hasn't begun producing Signature vehicles at this point or Bonnie would have been contacted.

My hope is they are building the cars but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available (think 2nd row seats). As they don´t know exactly when that will be, they are not telling customers yet.

 

[MrBoylan]

My hope is they are building the cars but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available (think 2nd row seats). As they don´t know exactly when that will be, they are not telling customers yet.

+1 on that. Mark Z. said he heard from his DS his Model X was going to the paint shop. I think that was already a couple of weeks ago now. So they've certainly "begun production" but they (Tesla) aren't sure yet when the Sigs will be finished, so no promises on exact delivery dates yet. I'm expecting we'll hear something more substantial about delivery estimates this week.

 

[AlMc]

My hope is they are building the cars but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available (think 2nd row seats). As they don´t know exactly when that will be, they are not telling customers yet.

I believe this to be EXACTLY the case.:wink: Think seats, glass top and possibly 72 amp chargers......

 

[dirkhh]

Being an optimist... how about if some people with say ~Sig100 and ~Sig200 call their DS and ask specifically if their car has started production, yet...
It may be that they really are just waiting for the second row seats and once they get that production going are able to ship quite a few very closely together.
Here's hoping.

 

[gjunky]

I assume people are checking their mobile app to see if their car is showing yet...?

 

[scottf200]

I assume people are checking their mobile app to see if their car is showing yet...?

Just installed it.

No Vehicles Linked to
This My Tesla Account.
Your vehicle may not be ready
OK

 

[Blastphemy]

My guess is that they're scrambling to engineer an alternate set of second row seats that fold down so that Signature reservations will have the ability to select them and not be livid when Production reservations are given that option. I bet a lot of cars are nearly complete aside from the second row, and Tesla will allow a last-minute choice for Sigs to switch.

If that's not the case, then I think everyone should be concerned. Door seals and in-house manufacturing of seats shouldn't have set back Tesla this far. If we don't see any Sig deliveries in November, that will be the second month in a row after the "launch," and I don't see any explanation from Tesla making very many people happy after that.

I guess another possibility is that they're re-thinking the 72 vs 48 onboard charger, and the internal discussions are causing delays.

 

[MitchJi]

My hope is they are building the cars

Given that they have a production line that can produce 300-1,000 cars per week what difference would that make?

but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available (think 2nd row seats).

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Yeah, I mean, we're – as we talked about before, really, the main thing with the X is just scaling up production. We're making steady progress with each passing week. Actually, seven days a week, every day, I get an update on manufacturing progress and what the issues are. And we see no fundamental issues on the production ramp. It's just a question of how quickly we can solve each issue. I mean they are really down to like the little things, like the placement of the seal on the door and whether that results in the bright trim alignment being correct, this is quite nuanced. So we feel very confident of being able to get to several hundred vehicles per week by the end of the year....

So exactly one week this way or that can actually make a significant number, a significant impact in the absolute number of vehicles delivered, we do feel comfortable at this point of reaching the several hundred per week production rate before the end of the year, i.e., next month.

And the issues are a bunch of little things. Door seals, right now, is a challenge, for example. The monopost seat in the second row is still a challenge, but less of a challenge. It's not the gating factor. This is basically going through a series of constraints. Most constraints can change from one day to the next. But the important point is that we don't see any fundamental obstacle to achieving a production rate of several hundred per week sometime next month.

According to Elon the problem is not parts. It's solving the production problems. Hopefully they still feel " very confident of being able to get to several hundred vehicles per week by the end of the year"!

As they don´t know exactly when that will be, they are not telling customers yet.

I agree.

 

[Mark Z]

...Mark Z said he heard from his DS his Model X was going to the paint shop. I think that was already a couple of weeks ago now...

LOL, maybe it's still in the paint shop!

No info to report with absolute silence from Tesla Motors. Reading some of the recent posts, I would hope that all Sigs would get a 72 amp charger and let the production buyers deal with a choice to upgrade later. Signature vehicles are usually fully loaded, so giving us that one 72 amp feature after giving up a center seat would go a long way in customer satisfaction, especially during the important initial customer delivery timeframe.

UPDATE: It appears that all Sigs will have the 72 amp charger! Look for the second gordonbremer post:

Model X onboard charger: 48 or 72 AMP? | Forums | Tesla Motors

 

[brianman]

Being an optimist... how about if some people with say ~Sig100 and ~Sig200 call their DS and ask specifically if their car has started production, yet...
It may be that they really are just waiting for the second row seats and once they get that production going are able to ship quite a few very closely together.
Here's hoping.

Wasn't the old way of testing this to call up and ask how much it would cost to make a configuration upgrade of some kind?

 

[andrewket]

My hope is they are building the cars but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available (think 2nd row seats). As they don´t know exactly when that will be, they are not telling customers yet.

^^ this. I would bet pizza that there are a few hundred X's sitting somewhere waiting on one or two parts.

 

[hobbes]

My hope is they are building the cars but leaving out some part which can be added quickly when it becomes available

Given that they have a production line that can produce 300-1,000 cars per week what difference would that make?

It will eventually be that fast, but probably not yet. Any car they make now and only have to add a seat will be done in an hour vs. a week at best.

 

[MitchJi]

Two problems with this:

I mean they are really down to like the little things, like the placement of the seal on the door and whether that results in the bright trim alignment being correct...

This is basically going through a series of constraints. Most constraints can change from one day to the next. But the important point is that we don't see any fundamental obstacle to achieving a production rate of several hundred per week sometime next month.

It's impossible to make a car now "and only have to add a seat", until they have discovered and resolved all of the constraints. How can they possibly produce cars completed cars, except for a few parts before they know the placement of the door seals and they are still discovering other issues?

It will eventually be that fast, but probably not yet. Any car they make now and only have to add a seat will be done in an hour vs. a week at best.

When they resolve all of the constraints, what makes you think other than running for a few hours at reduced speed, to be sure they have nailed all of the problems, that they won't be able to start producing at least a few hundred cars per week?

 

[nienco2]

"I mean they are really down to like the little things, like the placement of the seal on the door and whether that results in the bright trim alignment being correct," EM
I don't know about others but if you've ever dealt with leaks or wind noise in sunroof or windows I don't consider door seals a little thing. My X won't be for a while and hopefully the early buyers won't have to deal with door seal flaws that need tweaking.
EM also said the seats were not a" gating factor" ergo something else is. fwiw

 

[AlMc]

"I mean they are really down to like the little things, like the placement of the seal on the door and whether that results in the bright trim alignment being correct," EM
I don't know about others but if you've ever dealt with leaks or wind noise in sunroof or windows I don't consider door seals a little thing. My X won't be for a while and hopefully the early buyers won't have to deal with door seal flaws that need tweaking.
EM also said the seats were not a" gating factor" ergo something else is. fwiw

I agree that poorly sealed doors and moon/sun roofs leading to noise/leaks is a real issue. IF that is the reason for production delay though...shame on TM. The Falcon Wing doors have been a staple of the X since prototype days ( 2+ years )...and they are just getting around to figuring out the placement of the seals?

*disclaimer*...I have never been involved in manufacturing but TM has been now for several years....Does anyone truly believe a single SigX has not been delivered in the 6-7 weeks since the reveal because ONLY the door seal placement is an issue?

 

[engle]

Based on my observation not personal knowledge of the man, Elon is a perfectionist. The way the X has been designed is one indicator. I was told by a Tesla employee I know that Elon thought of the bio-defense mode air filtration system after driving his Model S from Palo Alto to the Fremont factory and passing a large odiferous landfill nearby that really stinks when the wind blows the wrong way.

I think the issue with door seals might be robotic placement to avoid manually doing it in an expensive, labor-intensive way the Founders were assembled.