Model X reveal impact on TSLA

[RyanT]

Buying a trailer to haul may be a compromise way to solve one issue but now you also have created a new one. Stowing the trailer. One problem solved by compromise, another one created.

U-haul problem fixed!

 

[AlMc]

U-haul problem fixed!

Gets a little expensive when 2/4 weekends you use it. Compromise.

To mods: I will stop posting about this in ST thread. Please feel to move any/all that you feel necessary to another thread.

Happy to continue the discussion elsewhere but I am out of here on this subject. Peace

 

[sundaymorning]

Gets a little expensive when 2/4 weekends you use it. Compromise.

To mods: I will stop posting about this in ST thread. Please feel to move any/all that you feel necessary to another thread.

Happy to continue the discussion elsewhere but I am out of here on this subject. Peace

Here's a better solution. Buy yourself a F150, pay gas for the rest of your life along with all the oil changes and parts for maintenance. Then you'll really save yourself money

 

[eloder]

Go with whatever suits you, Al. If an ICE SUV with folding second row seats is your preference, then stick with it. Meanwhile, the Model X has a long backlog of orders. Soccer moms were apparently the top priority, and I'm sure Tesla's research taught them what's most important to that demographic. Once much of the backlog has been drawn down, I'd expect that folding second row seats will be offered as an option. The people running Tesla aren't fools. And for those whose real joy is constantly hauling around large items, I expect a Tesla pickup truck will eventually be produced.

Agreed.

I just don't understand the conspiracy theory that Tesla engineers are sitting back, having a laugh at how many people they "screwed over" by not having folding seats.

Engineers have family and can haul things, too. If anything, engineers are big on the DIY crowd. Smart cars weren't designed to accommodate trailer hitches (even though there's a small group of smart car towing enthusiasts), cars are designed with specific purposes in mind.

I think Tesla's ability to deliver on a "true" high-end luxury car in all aspects, and not just amazing drivetrain and technology, bodes very well for TSLA even if it won't be recognized in the short term.

 

[NigelM]

Agree. If the reveal shows that the trunk only has 65" of space, the seats don't do anything special like rotate and there are no plans for any other seats anytime soon, we will start to see cancellations. And then the forum will decend into madness.

Prescient.

 

[Drax7]

Even though the car is a technological marvel, its a manufacturing nightmare, and the increased
cost dictates a higher selling price. This is a self inflicted wound, until proven otherwise, and the price action reflects
that in my view.

 

[Krugerrand]

Even though the car is a technological marvel, its a manufacturing nightmare, and the increased
cost dictates a higher selling price. This is a self inflicted wound, until proven otherwise, and the price action reflects
that in my view.

What increased cost? The 5k extra base price to get falcon wing doors for easier ingress/egress, HEPA air filtering system, safest SUV/CUV on the road, the lowest drag coefficient of any SUV/CUV, towing capacity, etc., etc...

 

[Drax7]

What increased cost? The 5k extra base price to get falcon wing doors for easier ingress/egress, HEPA air filtering system, safest SUV/CUV on the road, the lowest drag coefficient of any SUV/CUV, towing capacity, etc., etc...

Using a regular windshield, and doors and seats etc. and more common parts with model S would have been just as good
and way easier to manufacture.
The Models S already scores 103 out of 100, why try to exceed perfection at a huge cost
of time and manufacturing . Until this perception is proven otherwise, I am afraid .
This may be just me , maybe I am being irrational , and the market thinks otherwise.

 

[theschnell]

What increased cost? The 5k extra base price to get falcon wing doors for easier ingress/egress, HEPA air filtering system, safest SUV/CUV on the road, the lowest drag coefficient of any SUV/CUV, towing capacity, etc., etc...

How can all that stuff only cost $5k to manufacture? In large numbers (50K cars per year minimum), I can believe it, but until they ramp up, those features are costing significantly more than $5k per car, meaning that the X, if sold at $5k more than the S, would have way less margin than the S. This is the reason I believe Tesla is even more focused on prioritizing higher margin sales, to recoup their investment faster.

 

[jhm]

Even though the car is a technological marvel, its a manufacturing nightmare, and the increased
cost dictates a higher selling price. This is a self inflicted wound, until proven otherwise, and the price action reflects
that in my view.

Based on what? The pricing is $5k over comparable Model S configurations, but we have not seen what the gross margin is on this.

We simply have people speculating that if is was difficult to engineer then it must remain costly to manufacture. This does not follow. Once you program a robot to perform a task, it does not demand higher pay because the task was difficult to program. We should not conflated the cost of R&D with the cost of manufacturing.

Of course, investors are free to speculate however they wish, but at this point I don't see any data on the actual cost to make the Model X.

 

[Gerasimental]

Using a regular windshield, and doors and seats etc. and more common parts with model S would have been just as good
and way easier to manufacture.
The Models S already scores 103 out of 100, why try to exceed perfection at a huge cost
of time and manufacturing . Until this perception is proven otherwise, I am afraid .
This may be just me , maybe I am being irrational , and the market thinks otherwise.

I think the market agrees with you. Nevertheless, Tesla will be able to sell 25k Model X through the end of 2016 with an ASP of around $135k. This gives them lots of time and experience to improve manufacturing efficiency to the point where they can sell lower ASP Model X still with respectable margins. If it turns out that the margins on these very high ASP cars is really low then I'll start to be worried. If they are in line with Model S, I will be certainly looking for entry points if this price action continues, which I expect it to into early Q1 - barring typical Tesla surprises.

 

[Newb]

Even though the car is a technological marvel, its a manufacturing nightmare, and the increased
cost dictates a higher selling price. This is a self inflicted wound, until proven otherwise, and the price action reflects
that in my view.

They are wounding themselves short-term to recover even stronger long-term. I think waht Krugerrand implies here is important, too. They didn't want to build the best electric SUV on the market, a mere copy of the Model S, but they wanted to build the best SUV on the market and thereby demonstrate their ability to innovate on every new Tesla product, and to innovate beyond the innovative battery and drivetrain, i.e. with innovative safety features (including safe cabin air), innovative doors, seat mounts, etc.). Wall Street is always slow to understand the implications of such moves but we will all see the consequences for the brand "Tesla" and in the light of future spill-overs of X features to other premium brands, thus will be able to judge only in retrospect whether this short-term wound was worth it or not.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What increased cost? The 5k extra base price to get falcon wing doors for easier ingress/egress, HEPA air filtering system, safest SUV/CUV on the road, the lowest drag coefficient of any SUV/CUV, towing capacity, etc., etc...

No, I think Drax7 meant increased cost of production.

I remember from the last shareholder conference call that some of the components, including the 2nd row seats, were proving difficult to build. I also remember that the windshield was difficult to source as well.

Elon said that Model X was one of the most difficult vehicles in the world to build. That implies increased cost of production.

 

[Krugerrand]

No, I think Drax7 meant increased cost of production.

I remember from the last shareholder conference call that some of the components, including the 2nd row seats, were proving difficult to build. I also remember that the windshield was difficult to source as well.

Elon said that Model X was one of the most difficult vehicles in the world to build. That implies increased cost of production.

Okay, let's address that then.

Difficult to build doesn't imply increased cost to produce. That's what you *think*. Your thought might be right in the end, it might not. But what difficult does mean is that more skill, knowledge and talent is required to do. Tesla already has those in its workforce. Tesla has also shown a great ability to improve efficiencies and cost measures.

The Model X ceased to be required for the Secret Master Plan goal about two years ago. Indeed, have you not seen the evidence of that? Has the Model S not paid for and paved the way to this very moment in time and allowed for timely capital raises, Gigafactory, SuperCharger Network, expansion of stores/galleries/SC around the world, stationary storage AND R&D for Model X and bringing it to market etc...?

Tesla's got this. Now is not the time to lack faith and conviction.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Okay, let's address that then.

Difficult to build doesn't imply increased cost to produce. That's what you *think*. Your thought might be right in the end, it might not. But what difficult does mean is that more skill, knowledge and talent is required to do. Tesla already has those in its workforce. Tesla has also shown a great ability to improve efficiencies and cost measures.

The Model X ceased to be required for the Secret Master Plan goal about two years ago. Indeed, have you not seen the evidence of that? Has the Model S not paid for and paved the way to this very moment in time and allowed for timely capital raises, Gigafactory, SuperCharger Network, expansion of stores/galleries/SC around the world, stationary storage AND R&D for Model X and bringing it to market etc...?

Tesla's got this. Now is not the time to lack faith and conviction.

No, this was a supplier issue, not a Tesla issue.

I don't think Model X will have any negative long-term impact on Tesla, but I think it is most likely that the stock price will fluctuate within the 200-250 range until the product shows some impact on the company's financials.

Faith and conviction can blind people to realities. I strongly advise people here in the Investor's Forum to actively read and follow the Model X Forum and in particular the threads related to production and delivery. That will give the best indicators of how well (or otherwise) Model X production is progressing.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Here is a factually accurate article, that should (but probably won't) stop journalists from saying the Model X is too expensive. WSJ, NYTIMES, and everyone writing about the Model X: the Model X does not start at $130,000!

Tesla Model X to be $52,000 cheaper than the headlines might lead you to believe : TreeHugger

 

[larmor]

Just priced out a Cayenne Turbo S base is 150k, options including trailer hitch and autopilot type features, among others adds about 20k... I'm not an analyst for short or long term investments, just sayin' 170k > 130k, and cayenne has only 5 seats...

http://www.kbb.com/porsche/cayenne/...5|true|6609294|true|6609236|true|6609358|true

 

[jhm]

Just priced out a Cayenne Turbo S base is 150k, options including trailer hitch and autopilot type features, among others adds about 20k... I'm not an analyst for short or long term investments, just sayin' 170k > 130k, and cayenne has only 5 seats...

View attachment 97086

http://www.kbb.com/porsche/cayenne/...5|true|6609294|true|6609236|true|6609358|true

Nice shopping! File this away and revisit in 6 to 12 months. I suspect that Porsche may need to reduce its pricing a bit. I don't think they'll be able to get away with pricing at a 25% premium to Tesla for much longer.

 

[NigelM]

Tesla developed a fantastic car in Model X. There were always two questions to be answered:

1. Is there a market for it? Clearly there is an plenty of customers are lined up; some folks would have preferred more utility in their SUV (and that will undoubtedly come next year) but there's no shortage of people who love it.
2. Can Tesla execute? There's some short term question mark here because the market is used to seeing a launch presentation and then presto the product is on the shelf or in the dealerships from such and such date. Tesla and their suppliers need to ramp carefully rather than quickly.

I suspect some core bearishness right now and it may go further for a variety of reasons. If you're in for the long-term then things will be fine, but IMO TSLA is likely to remain (downwardly?) volatile in the short term.

Just my 2c.

 

[traxila]

Opinions on what the chances are that Tesla is already maxed out on current battery production, hence the exceedingly slow ramp up of X. It does seem that Model S demand is also up. We know the Gigafactory is a must to go with the Model III... maybe they have already hit a wall with battery production. Don't they already use the most lithium in the world?

Not claiming to know anything here... trying to pick the collective intelligence.