Model X Unveil When??

[AnOutsider]

Analyst Calls Tesla Model X Electric Crossover “Fast, Roomyâ€￾

They got a hand on the report:

“At the first of two events scheduled over the next few months, Tesla provided a preview (including test rides) of its newest vehicle based on the Model S platform, the Model S SUV,” details the report. “Initial spec (i.e 0-60mph faster than a Porsche 911, 40% more room than an Audi Q7, all-wheel drive, etc.) and design (falcon door, aerodynamic body, etc) were impressive/”

We also have to admit that we’ve never heard of a Falcon door, although we suspect it refers to the same automated door handle found on the 2012 Model S, which sits flush with the door panel to reduce aerodynamic drag until needed.

I'd never heard of it either.

This timeline stuff sort of confuses me though:

Interestingly, the Barclays report cites the Model X as being ready for introduction in late 2012, with availability ready by the end of 2013, meaning it will launch as the 2014 Tesla Model X.

 

[Mycroft]

I'm thinking that "being ready for introduction in late 2012" means that they're planning on introducing the beta in the 4th quarter like they did the Model S. The earlier "availability" would be possible because they already have the factory up and running - they just need to set up a new line. So availability would be possible much earlier than it was for the Model S.

 

[AnOutsider]

Still a strange phrasing.. In what was is it "available"? Does that mean that's when pre-orders start? Rides? If preorders, that's late, if rides, that's early. If they just mean "some betas will be made", then that doesn't really go with the definition of "available" does it?

*edit* actually, it says *introduction* in late 2012, so again, if we're seeing it next month, isn't that being introduced?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

That sounds reasonable. Prototype unveiling on Feb 9, Beta (with "over 90% production intent") by December 2012 and Production by December 2013.

If, on Feb 9, the X prototype turns out to be as snappy as it promises to be, I wonder how much it might cannibalize current (and future) Model S reservations?!

If the price differential (say, <speculation> the base bare-bones X costs $59,900 before Fed tax credit </speculation>) isn't too much over the base bare-bones S, would it tempt some folks to switch allegiance from the S to the X? Could that adversely impact Tesla's short-to-medium-term health?!

 

[Mycroft]

It's going to be heavier and less aerodynamic, thus possibly less range. I think the performance version will be the 4-wheel drive model and the price is going to end up around $120k. Just my thinking of course.

It might draw off some Model S reservation holders, but if it were me, I would go ahead with the Model S purchase and plan on selling it or trading it in for the Model X. 2014 is a long time from now.

 

[dsm363]

I agree. I think they need to try and keep it under $100,000 though. That should be possible with battery prices coming down about 8% per year according to Tesla.

 

[Norbert]

The earlier "availability" would be possible because they already have the factory up and running - they just need to set up a new line. So availability would be possible much earlier than it was for the Model S.

As far as I understood, Model X will use the same line (or at least mostly, I guess). It has the total capacity to run 2 shifts of about 20,000 each.

 

[WhiteKnight]

I think the performance version will be the 4-wheel drive model and the price is going to end up around $120k.

"Slowest" 911 runs 0-60 in 5.0 seconds, and the Model X has to weigh more than the Model S, so I don't think it's possible to beat a 911 without two motors. By the way, I would be shocked if the Model S does not have a dual-motor performance version at the same time the Model X is introduced (that beats the current performance model by a substantial margin) to match the AWD 5-series that BMW offers (xDrive). That's the great thing about the skateboard, once developed these innovations can be used across the platform.

 

[WhiteKnight]

That sounds reasonable. Prototype unveiling on Feb 9, Beta (with "over 90% production intent") by December 2012 and Production by December 2013.

Sounds like I need to plan a trip to Fremont for the Model X Ride Event in December!!! All I want for Christmas is a Model X. I suppose they'll start taking reservations on February 9th!

I think Model S can beat its competition, I think Model X will smash it's competition to smithereens!!!
Model X Will Have Greater Comparative Advantage

This could be the real game changer for Tesla (how many !!!s is too many?)

 

[AnOutsider]

So I take it the race is on to see who on here gets the earliest deposit then?

 

[felixtb]

So I take it the race is on to see who on here gets the earliest deposit then?

You bet! luckily we are in different markets. . sadly you will win since you are in the home market...... ;-(

 

[ahimberg]

AWD coming down to the S would really tempt me to delay my S if its not too far out (given I'm already expecting late 2012, but end of 2013 is a long time to wait with S's showing up everywhere!)

 

[Lloyd]

AWD coming down to the S would really tempt me to delay my S if its not too far out (given I'm already expecting late 2012, but end of 2013 is a long time to wait with S's showing up everywhere!)

Or buy the S, reserve the X and keep the one that suits you best. If the backlog keeps up you should be able to get your money out of one you sell!

 

[JRod0802]

That sounds reasonable. Prototype unveiling on Feb 9, Beta (with "over 90% production intent") by December 2012 and Production by December 2013.

The Model S Beta was unveiled on Oct. 1st, right? With Production starting in Late July, that would be 9.5 - 10 months of beta before production. Wouldn't you think that the Model X would spend less time in Beta (not more) since they'll already know so much about the platform?

I would think Model X beta in early March 2013, production in December 2013.

 

[JRod0802]

By the way, I would be shocked if the Model S does not have a dual-motor performance version at the same time the Model X is introduced (that beats the current performance model by a substantial margin) to match the AWD 5-series that BMW offers (xDrive). That's the great thing about the skateboard, once developed these innovations can be used across the platform.

I think that Tesla is really out to prove that they can get everything that they promised done on time to prove their viability as a company. At this point they've promised 4 wheel drive on the Model X, but not on the Model S. I feel like that would place delivering the Model X with dual-motors (our suspected method of 4 wheel drive) as a higher priority than upgrading the Model S to have dual-motors. Having dual motors in the Model S would mean redesigning some parts of the car (they'd share the skateboard, but there'd still be some things that need to change to accommodate the extra motor up front).

Considering everything else that they're doing, I guess I'd be surprised if the Model S wasn't delayed a little on getting the dual-motors.

 

[dsm363]

This is interesting. Gives weights of things people actually tow on average
How Much Truck Do You Really Need? - U.S. News Best Cars

 

[AnOutsider]

I think that Tesla is really out to prove that they can get everything that they promised done on time to prove their viability as a company. At this point they've promised 4 wheel drive on the Model X, but not on the Model S. I feel like that would place delivering the Model X with dual-motors (our suspected method of 4 wheel drive) as a higher priority than upgrading the Model S to have dual-motors. Having dual motors in the Model S would mean redesigning some parts of the car (they'd share the skateboard, but there'd still be some things that need to change to accommodate the extra motor up front).

Considering everything else that they're doing, I guess I'd be surprised if the Model S wasn't delayed a little on getting the dual-motors.

I guess I'm of the thinking that so much is shared that once they get AWD for X, it should be fairly trivial on S. remember X has OPTIONAL AWD, so they still have to design it like the S, then modify for AWD. It might transfer back to the S quite easily in that situation.

 

[dsm363]

Do you think early Model S owners would be upset if they offered optional second motor in the second year of production on the Model S and didn't offer it as a paid upgrade to the first run of the Model S?

 

[AnOutsider]

Should and will are very different. As we've seen recently, people will complain no matter what. Automakers make improvements to their cars every model year. Tesla upgraded the Roadsters between version numbers. Same thing. One thing Tesla did do though, was make some of the newer stuff available to older models. Not many manufacturers do that.

 

[dsm363]

I agree. I'm hoping Tesla sticks to their Silicon Valley roots and does offer upgrades when possible. That'd be something no one else has ever done in the car business that I'm aware of and would show how loyal they are to their customers. I think they'll do it if possible since it would only be a few thousand cars they're have to upgrade at most (since it would likely be a very expensive upgrade and most people wouldn't be willing to do it).