Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[tangible1]

Yes, 1 body, not hundreds or even thousands. I do not think they are ready for mass production of 4680 MY. They may be making the first pack that is going into the first body, then all of that needs to be tested in house before making a few more for sending out for legal testing. It is very unlikely they are going from the equipment being delivered 2 months ago and experiencing problems even making 4680 cell components to making packs for mass producing within 2 months. The line was ust pictured as being installed 2 weeks ago so again, they might not even be making successful 4680 cells yet, the equipment is there but the process may not be figured out yet. They are set to use 2170 to start per Elon in August.

Tesla Giga Texas Receives Equipment for 4680 Battery Cell Production

Tesla Giga Texas continues to receive equipment to manufacture 4680 battery cells as the manufacturer aims to begin mass production in 2022. A truck with a container that says "anode line 1" drove into a building on the north side.

www.tesmanian.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429050987529003014

Until the backlog for MY is eaten through where they can pause Fremont and Texas while switching over, there is no reason to switch to 4680. Remember all the castings at Fremont they are just starting to work through? They will do the same with 4680. They need to stockpile enough to make 4,000 cars per week. And unless they switch all of one type of car to Fremont and another type to Austin, they will not make multiple models of Model Y that will be different where you are in the country. Do you charge different prices? At some point Tesla will need to pause and have everything be the same at both plants in the US, that is when 4680 will be introduced. There is no sign of that happening soon in Fremont and if Austin is ready to produce MY with 2170, they will conitnue with that until they can do the changeover properly. Remember no Model S for a year when Plaid was being introduced?

No one knows what's coming out of Texas, and Fremont is a closed book.
Only inferences can be made, there's no hard evidence.
Tesla ain't talking.

Inferences:
The calibration body in white (BiW) delivered to Tesla this week had no floorpan, and people are speculating that all MY will thus be 4680 from now on.
They forget that Elon stated a 'backup plan' using 2170 packs was developed. Both 4680 and 2170 pack-based chassis were shown at the Berlin open house.
Depending on which pack gets used, there's some variance to the BiW - the 4680 is structural, the 2170 pack is not / needs additional floor reinforcement.

In Fremont, they've been making REAR megacasts for a long time, and rolling them inside for chassis assembly since early 2021.
They have also been making FRONT magacasts since summer, and storing them outside on the lot. Lately there's evidence of shuffling, if not reduction, of stacks.
So it seems the use of New Battery Packs is about to commence. 2170/4680 ? UNKNOWN
Further, there's a new all-weather causeway (conduit) finalizing construction between the chassis assembly and new Sprung tent, for moving BiW chassis.
(currently they tow, outside, BiW on rolling frames between buildings) This indirectly indicates a new process to commence.

The new chassis will use both F+R magacasts, and either a structural (4680) or non-structural (2170) battery pack.

Background
Tesla has been capable of making the new chassis battery packs for some time.
Tesla has stated often they anticipate major time + cost savings in building the new chassis (call it v1.5-2170, v2.0-4680)
Time due to few robots, simpler process.
Cost due to keeping the margins on the batteries for themselves instead of giving that to Panasonic. et al. And of course, time is money too.
If they anticipated 4680 would be available soon, they'd wait a reasonable time for it. Just do the process change ONCE.
If 4680 battery packs were going to be delayed, they'd just go ahead with 2170 packs. Then do the process change TWICE (ie, again when 4680 came online).

IMHO
Tesla are engineering nerds first. They want the best possible, soonest.
Events at Texas and Berlin have conspired to delay those factories until now (vs planned September-ish).
4680 may have arrived (finally). It too is later than planned.

SUMMARY
I think Texas will begin with 4680 chassis builds, and Fremont is in the process of doing so as well.
All the delays have contributed to the engineering-preferred solution coming together !!

remember, YMMV
2170 battery packs could still be the interim solution. Which wouldn't be too bad, it would still save 200lbs weight (vs 440lbs using 4680 packs)

 

[Cyberspeed]

sounds like production starts next week: Report: Tesla Giga Austin To Start Production Next Week

 

[Ron J.]

A few data points related to 4680 batteries that we need to consider when we are speculating about when they may start showing up in MYs:.

1. All of the initial 4680 cells are coming from the Kato Rd. (Fremont) Tesla factory (GigaTexas and Panasonic production is likely still a few months away)

2. Earlier this year Elon said that although Kato Rd. is a R&D and pilot production location, it's still something like the 5th largest battery factory in the world.

3. There has been a lot of new hiring for the Kato Rd. factory over the past 6 months

4. A tesla exec. recently stated the battery production has doubled at the Kato Rd. factory

5. A Tesla exec. said a couple of months ago that testing is going well for the new batteries and structural battery pack

______________________________

So it comes down to if the Kato Rd. factory can produce enough 4680 batteries for the initial MY's coming out of the Austin gigafactory (almost certainly yes since the initial MY production numbers will be rather modest) and perhaps also even for the next few months of Fremont MY production (perhaps, if Kato Rd. factory has been producing and stockpiling 4680 batteries for at least the past 6 months).

I suspect we will know the real story of 4680 cells and structural battery packs for the MYs within the next few weeks.

 

[tangible1]

A few data points related to 4680 batteries that we need to consider when we are speculating about when they may start showing up in MYs:.

1. All of the initial 4680 cells are coming from the Kato Rd. (Fremont) Tesla factory (GigaTexas and Panasonic production is likely still a few months away)

2. Earlier this year Elon said that although Kato Rd. is a R&D and pilot production location, it's still something like the 5th largest battery factory in the world.

3. There has been a lot of new hiring for the Kato Rd. factory over the past 6 months

4. A tesla exec. recently stated the battery production has doubled at the Kato Rd. factory

5. A Tesla exec. said a couple of months ago that testing is going well for the new batteries and structural battery pack

______________________________

So it comes down to if the Kato Rd. factory can produce enough 4680 batteries for the initial MY's coming out of the Austin gigafactory (almost certainly yes since the initial MY production numbers will be rather modest) and perhaps also even for the next few months of Fremont MY production (perhaps, if Kato Rd. factory has been producing and stockpiling 4680 batteries for at least the past 6 months).

Agree on all.

Confirm that Kato Rd has been warehousing QC passed cells since summer.
Yield has been the issue, and is the gateway to 4680 usage.
Current yields are unknown. Volume available is unknown.

We won't know what in the way of chassis builds is coming out of either Fremont or Austin until they're in the wild.
Tesla has seen to that, they're very tight.

And I believe what comes out from both will be the same; it's not like Tesla to have too much variance. Logistics would not be nice.

 

[Ron J.]

Agree on all.

Confirm that Kato Rd has been warehousing QC passed cells since summer.
Yield has been the issue, and is the gateway to 4680 usage.
Current yields are unknown. Volume available is unknown.

We won't know what in the way of chassis builds is coming out of either Fremont or Austin until they're in the wild.
Tesla has seen to that, they're very tight.

And I believe what comes out from both will be the same; it's not like Tesla to have too much variance. Logistics would not be nice.

Back in Aug. it was reported the 4680 yield were up to 70% to 80% then a couple of months ago it was reported that 4680 cell yields were >80% from Kato Rd.

 

[tangible1]

Back in Aug. it was reported the 4680 yield were up to 70% to 80% then a couple of months ago it was reported that 4680 cell yields were >80% from Kato Rd.

true.
however, yield needs to be far higher to make them viable.
On the order of 95%.

Otherwise the scrap and recycling costs kill it.

No one knows the yield metrics, and Tesla isn't talking. They're very tight.

There was an article several months back on the former Tesla VP Battery Engr JB Straubel.
He started a battery recycling company in Reno NV, Redwood Materials.
He would be an interesting guy to talk to about what yields are coming out of Tesla, since he would likely be doing the recycling.

 

[Ron J.]

May all of your Tesla dreams come true in 22.

Happy New Year

 

[tangible1]

May all of your Tesla dreams come true in 22.

Happy New Year

THANKS

You got two minutes to get your celebration going.

ENJOY !!!!!!

 

[Mrbrock]

No one knows what's coming out of Texas, and Fremont is a closed book.
Only inferences can be made, there's no hard evidence.
Tesla ain't talking.

Inferences:
The calibration body in white (BiW) delivered to Tesla this week had no floorpan, and people are speculating that all MY will thus be 4680 from now on.
They forget that Elon stated a 'backup plan' using 2170 packs was developed. Both 4680 and 2170 pack-based chassis were shown at the Berlin open house.
Depending on which pack gets used, there's some variance to the BiW - the 4680 is structural, the 2170 pack is not / needs additional floor reinforcement.

In Fremont, they've been making REAR megacasts for a long time, and rolling them inside for chassis assembly since early 2021.
They have also been making FRONT magacasts since summer, and storing them outside on the lot. Lately there's evidence of shuffling, if not reduction, of stacks.
So it seems the use of New Battery Packs is about to commence. 2170/4680 ? UNKNOWN
Further, there's a new all-weather causeway (conduit) finalizing construction between the chassis assembly and new Sprung tent, for moving BiW chassis.
(currently they tow, outside, BiW on rolling frames between buildings) This indirectly indicates a new process to commence.

The new chassis will use both F+R magacasts, and either a structural (4680) or non-structural (2170) battery pack.

Background
Tesla has been capable of making the new chassis battery packs for some time.
Tesla has stated often they anticipate major time + cost savings in building the new chassis (call it v1.5-2170, v2.0-4680)
Time due to few robots, simpler process.
Cost due to keeping the margins on the batteries for themselves instead of giving that to Panasonic. et al. And of course, time is money too.
If they anticipated 4680 would be available soon, they'd wait a reasonable time for it. Just do the process change ONCE.
If 4680 battery packs were going to be delayed, they'd just go ahead with 2170 packs. Then do the process change TWICE (ie, again when 4680 came online).

IMHO
Tesla are engineering nerds first. They want the best possible, soonest.
Events at Texas and Berlin have conspired to delay those factories until now (vs planned September-ish).
4680 may have arrived (finally). It too is later than planned.

SUMMARY
I think Texas will begin with 4680 chassis builds, and Fremont is in the process of doing so as well.
All the delays have contributed to the engineering-preferred solution coming together !!

remember, YMMV
2170 battery packs could still be the interim solution. Which wouldn't be too bad, it would still save 200lbs weight (vs 440lbs using 4680 packs)

How is there weight saving with 2170 packs when all model Ys currently being built use 2170? They aren’t switching battery types to save weight, it’s the same batteries. Are you referring to weight savings from the castings? Or just batteries?

 

[Stook02ss]

Yes, 1 body, not hundreds or even thousands. I do not think they are ready for mass production of 4680 MY. They may be making the first pack that is going into the first body, then all of that needs to be tested in house before making a few more for sending out for legal testing. It is very unlikely they are going from the equipment being delivered 2 months ago and experiencing problems even making 4680 cell components to making packs for mass producing within 2 months. The line was ust pictured as being installed 2 weeks ago so again, they might not even be making successful 4680 cells yet, the equipment is there but the process may not be figured out yet. They are set to use 2170 to start per Elon in August.

Tesla Giga Texas Receives Equipment for 4680 Battery Cell Production

Tesla Giga Texas continues to receive equipment to manufacture 4680 battery cells as the manufacturer aims to begin mass production in 2022. A truck with a container that says "anode line 1" drove into a building on the north side.

www.tesmanian.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429050987529003014

Until the backlog for MY is eaten through where they can pause Fremont and Texas while switching over, there is no reason to switch to 4680. Remember all the castings at Fremont they are just starting to work through? They will do the same with 4680. They need to stockpile enough to make 4,000 cars per week. And unless they switch all of one type of car to Fremont and another type to Austin, they will not make multiple models of Model Y that will be different where you are in the country. Do you charge different prices? At some point Tesla will need to pause and have everything be the same at both plants in the US, that is when 4680 will be introduced. There is no sign of that happening soon in Fremont and if Austin is ready to produce MY with 2170, they will conitnue with that until they can do the changeover properly. Remember no Model S for a year when Plaid was being introduced?

Like I've said before, I could see them shifting MYP production, which acounts for a small fraction of the total MY production, to Austin and using the 4680s in those. The weight savings of the 4680 will offer better all around performance, something that's a top consideration for P purchasers... folks who are keenly interested in acceleration, handling and braking, perhaps even more so than range.

 

[advocate8]

Like I've said before, I could see them shifting MYP production, which acounts for a small fraction of the total MY production, to Austin and using the 4680s in those. The weight savings of the 4680 will offer better all around performance, something that's a top consideration for P purchasers... folks who are keenly interested in acceleration, handling and braking, perhaps even more so than range.

It’s completely unclear whether there will be much weight savings, or whether Tesla will keep weight similar but boost range. Or they could lighten the car and keep range same. Or split the difference.
Either way, the real world benefits of the batteries are certain to be more modest than the hype. Some of the numbers bandied around --“5X the power!” are misleading. Def not 5x power for same weight. Mainly that just means these batteries are a lot larger.
I would focus on the claim of "16 percent more range." That would almost certainly be at the same as current weight for the batteries in the car.
So, they could, say, increase range 8 percent and drop battery pack weight 8 percent. Not the car’s weight, the batteries’. So, maybe 90 lbs I batteries saved for 8 percent.
There will be some other weight savings with the front casting alone etc but not huge.
Elon has said more than 400 lbs total is possible. he is surely picking the bigger number possible. So, no way is it 400 plus pounds saved AND 16 percent range increase. It has to be one or the other or a compromise between those.
I’m assuming his weight savings estimate is based on dropping size of battery pack to keep current range or similar. So in real world, you could be looking at only 100 or 200 lbs savings if they boost range some. about like leaving a passenger at home.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

It’s completely unclear whether there will be much weight savings, or whether Tesla will keep weight similar but boost range. Or they could lighten the car and keep range same. Or split the difference.
Either way, the real world benefits of the batteries are certain to be more modest than the hype. Some of the numbers bandied around --“5X the power!” are misleading. Def not 5x power for same weight. Mainly that just means these batteries are a lot larger.
I would focus on the claim of "16 percent more range." That would almost certainly be at the same weight for the batteries in the car.
So, they could increase range 8 percent and drop battery pack weight 8 percent. Not the car’s weight, the batteries’. So, maybe 90 lbs.
There will be some other weight savings with the front casting alone etc but not huge.
Elon has said more than 400 lbs total is possible. he is surely picking the bigger number possible. But no way is it 400 plus pounds saved AND 16 percent range increase. I’m assuming his weight savings estimate is based on dropping size of battery pack to keep current range or similar. So in real world, you could be looking at only 100 or 200 lbs savings if they boost range some. about like leaving a passenger at home.

They are replacing 70 Parts with 1 molded part so there is savings there ... the main weight savings is happening on the floor. Current MY has the battery pack mounted to the floor of the MY and the new MY the battery pack is the floor . They will save some weight by not having the extra layer of steel in the floor but If they intend to keep the same 300 mile range then they can reduce the batteries by up to 30% so 400 pounds seems very achieveable.

 

[tangible1]

How is there weight saving with 2170 packs when all model Ys currently being built use 2170? They aren’t switching battery types to save weight, it’s the same batteries. Are you referring to weight savings from the castings? Or just batteries?

The weight reduction is due to the Front megacast and change in (but not elimination of) floorpan support when both magacasts are integrated for the chassis build.

Right now only the rear megacast is in use, and the original 2170 battery pack.
The 2170 (backup plan) battery pack is slightly re-designed for use in a chassis using both F+R megacasts.
Like the Rear megacast replaced some 70 pieces of steel that were welded and bonded, the Front magacast replaces even more.

So the new build using 2170 pack and F+R castings ends up being ~200lbs lighter than the current chassis build.

The 4680 battery pack further reduces the overall weight, as the floorpan bracing is eliminated since the 4680 pack is a structural element of the chassis.
That total weight reduction is substantial; ~440lbs (10% overall of current builds).

All this has been Elon confirmed thru various Tesla presentations and interviews.

Of course, none of it is confirmed by customer deliveries yet.
Hopefully soon.

 

[Stook02ss]

It’s completely unclear whether there will be much weight savings, or whether Tesla will keep weight similar but boost range. Or they could lighten the car and keep range same. Or split the difference.
Either way, the real world benefits of the batteries are certain to be more modest than the hype. Some of the numbers bandied around --“5X the power!” are misleading. Def not 5x power for same weight. Mainly that just means these batteries are a lot larger.
I would focus on the claim of "16 percent more range." That would almost certainly be at the same as current weight for the batteries in the car.
So, they could, say, increase range 8 percent and drop battery pack weight 8 percent. Not the car’s weight, the batteries’. So, maybe 90 lbs I batteries saved for 8 percent.
There will be some other weight savings with the front casting alone etc but not huge.
Elon has said more than 400 lbs total is possible. he is surely picking the bigger number possible. So, no way is it 400 plus pounds saved AND 16 percent range increase. It has to be one or the other or a compromise between those.
I’m assuming his weight savings estimate is based on dropping size of battery pack to keep current range or similar. So in real world, you could be looking at only 100 or 200 lbs savings if they boost range some. about like leaving a passenger at home.

I agree with most of what you said. Most. Enough to say that exactly what I suggested is a reason to start with the MYP. Even a 5% weight savings with all else remaining the same would drastically improve every aspect of the MYP's performance. A great way to start the 4680 implementation imo.

 

[bluetrep1]

so take a year of production for Texas to improve quality like Fremont?

 

[tangible1]

I agree with most of what you said. Most. Enough to say that exactly what I suggested is a reason to start with the MYP. Even a 5% weight savings with all else remaining the same would drastically improve every aspect of the MYP's performance. A great way to start the 4680 implementation imo.

Tesla is backlogged on MYLR and a 5K discount says they can't give away MYP.
So why start up Texas building MYP ??

Why would Tesla add range (batteries) for free, when they can't build enough of MY anyway? That would be a give-away.
Regardless, there's no competitive requirement. No one else can deliver enough anything to make a dent.

Stop making sense!

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I agree with most of what you said. Most. Enough to say that exactly what I suggested is a reason to start with the MYP. Even a 5% weight savings with all else remaining the same would drastically improve every aspect of the MYP's performance. A great way to start the 4680 implementation imo.

I think the last thing tesla is concerned with (today) is increasing performance of the MYP. I'd think that they would want to capitalize on as many sales as they can while other manufacturers are still playing catchup. Ramping Gigatexas up and aleviating their backlog is likely to be their first priority . The cars will be cheaper and quicker to produce and it will be cheaper to transport them to their final destinations.

I think we'll know one way or the other in the next 2 weeks

 

[Mrbrock]

Tesla is backlogged on MYLR and a 5K discount says they can't give away MYP.
So why start up Texas building MYP ??

Why would Tesla add range (batteries) for free, when they can't build enough of MY anyway? That would be a give-away.
Regardless, there's no competitive requirement. No one else can deliver enough anything to make a dent.

Stop making sense!

If they have enough 2170 cell production to allow Texas to start production with and catch up with the backlog all the while stockpiling 4680 cells that makes the most sense. And they will have time to figure out what to do with 4680 and if it is a new model that they need to start selling.

 

[Stook02ss]

Tesla is backlogged on MYLR and a 5K discount says they can't give away MYP.
So why start up Texas building MYP ??

Why would Tesla add range (batteries) for free, when they can't build enough of MY anyway? That would be a give-away.
Regardless, there's no competitive requirement. No one else can deliver enough anything to make a dent.

Stop making sense!

Tesla clearly is maximizing production regardless. It seems like to me they prefer making the P over the LR... that they have a greater profit margin or something. If that's not the case, why on Earth would the not bump out the P delivery date to produce some LR versions sooner? Why produce Ps you can't give away when you can make the LR instead?

Using the 4680 for the P is the obvious choice given its smaller production run and will make the car an even better value. Also, using 4680s on the P frees up more 2170 for the LR... which as you've already said is sold out 6+ months. Clearly that's the one vehicle they don't need to change....

Also, atm the MYP is outclassed performance wise by its German ICE counterparts... that's not the case for the M3P, S or X. Lowering the weight and perhaps bumping the power output a hair should help remedy this and make it the bargain performance vehicle I've come to expect from Teslas.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

If they have enough 2170 cell production to allow Texas to start production with and catch up with the backlog all the while stockpiling 4680 cells that makes the most sense. And they will have time to figure out what to do with 4680 and if it is a new model that they need to start selling.

I guess it depends what they are having crash tested. The MY at GT has the Batterypack as the Floor. The 2170's are smaller then the 4680 so they would need customize that battery pack specifically for the 2170's. They would need to have them crash tested again for the 4680's. Ideally I'd think that they would want to have the 4680's in there and out in the wild so they can evaluate any unforseen issues. I can't see them stockpileing 4680's without knowing how they perform in the real world.