Model Y Not Worth the Price Now [Nov 2022]

[Eric9610]

I don't see a discount either

I don't think the discount is available to people with delivered cars already. I think it's an incentive on stock cars.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

The fact that new stock inventory exists points to a slowdown in demand... if every car was sold then they would not have stock cars. This is real world data available on Teslas website... several months ago when the wait was 6 months+ no new stock existed.

Which is almost certainly tied to the fact that in 23 more days, a new $7500 federal tax credit is coming online so no one wants to buy in December.

This is exactly why Tesla is offering the $3.5k discount to help ease the transition into Jan where demand will likely spike because now the cars are a lot cheaper for most buyers.

Tesla is then in great position to adjust prices going forward to balance supply and demand as their factories ramp higher. Tesla has the highest profit margins of anyone, and can trim prices as desired much more easily.

 

[tangible1]

The fact that new stock inventory exists points to a slowdown in demand... if every car was sold then they would not have stock cars. This is real world data available on Teslas website... several months ago when the wait was 6 months+ no new stock existed.

you don't think Tesla could have pre-built vehicles in preparation for a situation exactly like last year's EoY tax rebate kerfuffle?
I think that's exactly what's going on. Too much is being read into it as a 'demand crisis'. It Is Not.

 

[DanDi58]

you don't think Tesla could have pre-built vehicles in preparation for a situation exactly like last year's EoY tax rebate kerfuffle?
I think that's exactly what's going on. Too much is being read into it as a 'demand crisis'. It Is Not.

I tend to view this as correct. I don't believe there is a long-term demand issue right not, at least not in the US. Take a look at the number of posts here and on various FB groups about people with EDD's coming up that want to defer them to January to take advantage of the new US tax incentives. Tesla can't afford to push off all of that demand in 1Q23 for business reasons (i.e., low 4Q22 delivery levels) hence the $3,750 incentive. And as others have noted Tesla has ALWAYS offered 4Q incentives, whether it is a discounted EAP or something else (can't remember what it was in 2020 - might have been discounted FSD).

China might be a different story, with all of the EV's available there that aren't here yet.

 

[whisperingshad]

I don't think the discount is available to people with delivered cars already. I think it's an incentive on stock cars.

That is infortunate, they losing out on alot of money

 

[qdeathstar]

I voted no, mainly because I would not buy a 70k car, there are zero cars worth more than 70k. I’d just roll with waiting on a Rivian. The issue is if you want a ev with long range now, what are your options really?

The question isn’t if the Tesla is worth 70k, it’s what is the 70k worth to you?

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I voted no, mainly because I would not buy a 70k car, there are zero cars worth more than 70k. I’d just roll with waiting on a Rivian. The issue is if you want a ev with long range now, what are your options really?

The question isn’t if the Tesla is worth 70k, it’s what is the 70k worth to you?

There is no $70k Rivian you can order right now

 

[qdeathstar]

There is no $70k Rivian you can order right now

No there isn’t, that’s what I said.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

No there isn’t, that’s what I said.

> I would not buy a 70k car, there are zero cars worth more than 70k. I’d just roll with waiting on a Rivian.

The front and back of your statement are in conflict

 

[qdeathstar]

> I would not buy a 70k car, there are zero cars worth more than 70k. I’d just roll with waiting on a Rivian.

The front and back of your statement are in conflict

No they ain’t Willis. The Rivian is a truck not a car and I said I’d wait for it. I also said Tesla was the only option now. Get out from under ye bridge and read the whole post before you spout off inaccurate accusations.

 

[Yelobird]

> I would not buy a 70k car, there are zero cars worth more than 70k. I’d just roll with waiting on a Rivian.

The front and back of your statement are in conflict

For what it’s worth that’s how I read it also and questioned Any Rivian ever being under 70k.

 

[qdeathstar]

Americas education system folks…

 

[kelpcar]

No they ain’t Willis. The Rivian is a truck not a car and I said I’d wait for it. I also said Tesla was the only option now. Get out from under ye bridge and read the whole post before you spout off inaccurate accusations.

The Rivian is a truck and an SUV. The pricing is the same. For those who ordered in the last winter, the R1S is extremely competitive (superior with the caveat of when the hell do you get it) for essentially the same price. It was especially so late in February after Tesla did another price increase, before Rivian attempted to increase pricing on Mar 1st. They retreated on that, but removed price certainty on new orders.

But a 3 row, 110ft cargo space quad motor SUV vs the Y for essentially the same money...blowout. But that's the theoretical matchup - that order won't be fulfilled until at least 2024, the tax rebate isn't 100% certain (85%?), the company may not feel like it has long term viability (parts, support), or other 3 row seating options may come along with better pricing for good enough performance (Chevy, VW, Kia). But for those of us who put down the 1k deposit (900 refundable), it's a low cost bid. I just didn't wait, took the YP up front.

 

[kelpcar]

I think the issue is Tesla Calls the ADM the MSRP... and when demand drops the MSRP goes down, AKA market-based pricing. In a traditional model the ADM goes away but MSRP never changed...

So in the end with the Telsa you have the same negative equity as paying a ADM..

But....that MSRP is fixed. When you put in your order, pay that non refundable $250, you know what you're paying for, on a contract. With the ADM situation, you may not know until the week the vehicle gets to the dealer. Some of the first would be recipients of the Hummer EV got that shock when the dealer added 50k (or more) right as the customer was going in to pay.

 

[kelpcar]

for 72 months @ 7.15% APR. That car payment is almost $1,300 for 72 months.. would be about total about $92K to satisfy the loan. In case you are missing the point here.. the days of cheap car loans are gone.

They'll come back in time. But these past 2 years, where the supply is 2M units short of traditional demand? When money was free, everyone was happy to do car loans for 2.5%, but that was when the Fed Rate was 0. Now that it's 3.83, everyone still wants that 2.5% margin.

But whenever we get back to point where cars are left unsold, makers will subsidize lending rates to move them off the lot. As for the Fed, many believes ZIPR (zero interest rate policy) was locked in for the forseeable future. Your guess is as good as mine, but I'd throw out 2.5-3 as a 21st century middle ground, implying 4.9% for normal sales, and 2.9 for more aggressive ones.

 

[kelpcar]

The problem is that Elon has said (grain of salt inserted here) that the price increases are due to increases in the cost of materials, which won't be coming down any time soon, not as any kind of 'market adjustment'. So the only way for Tesla to decrease prices with these increased costs is to cut into their margins per car which, admittedly, are among the highest in the auto industry.

you agree that Elon is basically lying. Their margins will not stand up to increasing competition. He goosed it in 2022 when no one else was delivering in quantity, but that will fall back to earth.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

The Rivian is a truck and an SUV. The pricing is the same. For those who ordered in the last winter, the R1S is extremely competitive (superior with the caveat of when the hell do you get it) for essentially the same price. It was especially so late in February after Tesla did another price increase, before Rivian attempted to increase pricing on Mar 1st. They retreated on that, but removed price certainty on new orders.

But a 3 row, 110ft cargo space quad motor SUV vs the Y for essentially the same money...blowout. But that's the theoretical matchup - that order won't be fulfilled until at least 2024, the tax rebate isn't 100% certain (85%?), the company may not feel like it has long term viability (parts, support), or other 3 row seating options may come along with better pricing for good enough performance (Chevy, VW, Kia). But for those of us who put down the 1k deposit (900 refundable), it's a low cost bid. I just didn't wait, took the YP up front.

Again, if you want to use Rivian pricing from a year+ ago, you need to also use Tesla pricing from the same time.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

you agree that Elon is basically lying. Their margins will not stand up to increasing competition. He goosed it in 2022 when no one else was delivering in quantity, but that will fall back to earth.

Tesla is balancing supply and demand. They've been sold-out for every car they can make. So raise prices till demand drops. That's finally happening (with a bit of help from Elon damaging the Tesla brand with Twitter stupidity). They have LOTS of room to reduce prices as needed to ramp demand if they reach excess supply - the other makers would have to run negative margins to match them.

 

[kelpcar]

For what it’s worth that’s how I read it also and questioned Any Rivian ever being under 70k.

The R1S Adventure trim with the 'free' wheel option and colors was 75,500 till Mar, which could translate to 68,000. This is for the 135kWh battery and the quad motors, which now add 12k to the sticker at minimum. There was a base trim for about 4 or 5k less, but it was cancelled with the claim that few people wanted it anyway. I don't know if I could downgrade to the dual motors and save further, but I doubt it.

It's like that 25k M3SR you could get for a brief window with a specific set of rebates and incentives.

 

[kelpcar]

Again, if you want to use Rivian pricing from a year+ ago, you need to also use Tesla pricing from the same time.

I did. "For those who ordered in the last winter"

I put in my order for the R1S on Feb 4th, and for the YLR about a week later. In March I shifted the order to a YP to get quarter end delivery, so yes, I know exactly what the pricing in February was for both.