Model Y Not Worth the Price Now [Nov 2022]

[ZenRockGarden]

I did. "For those who ordered in the last winter"

I put in my order for the R1S on Feb 4th, and for the YLR about a week later. In March I shifted the order to a YP to get quarter end delivery, so yes, I know exactly what the pricing in February was for both.

So the price comparison needs to show a last-year MYLR at around $55k vs last-year R1S at $75k. That $20k gap remains if you use today-prices too - the cheapest R1S you can order today appears to be $85k against roughly $65K for MYLR.

You may now insist on comparing to Rivian models which can't be ordered (at which time we can insist on using a non-existent MYSR)

 

[kelpcar]

So the price comparison needs to show a last-year MYLR at around $55k vs last-year R1S at $75k. That $20k gap remains if you use today-prices too - the cheapest R1S you can order today appears to be $85k against roughly $65K for MYLR.

You may now insist on comparing to Rivian models which can't be ordered (at which time we can insist on using a non-existent MYSR)

there's really no need for such dishonesty. I said winter, and you want to use the price before the October 2021 price hikes AND also pretend there is no tax rebate for the Rivian.

From Nov 11, 2021 -> March 8th, the MYLR was 58,990 base. The MYP was 63,990. Add 1k for the tow hitch (feature "parity"), 250 order fee, and 1200 delivery. And as we all know, in the spring Tesla basically said buy the P, or wait until Fall to get it. I stopped worrying range and paid the 5k, and the result is the closest comparison to the quad motor R1S. Ignoring the price I paid for a color, that was 66,440 before taxes and reg fees.

That Rivian is 75,500 - 7500 + 1800 est delivery = 69,800. Most of that 3360 difference would be erased if you paid for Tesla's marginally useful 3rd row option ($3000), at the expense of cargo space.

The YP used to command a higher price premium - you could go as far back as Feb 17, 2021, and still pay 60,900 + 1000 + 250 + 1200 = 63,350.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

there's really no need for such dishonesty. I said winter, and you want to use the price before the October 2021 price hikes AND also pretend there is no tax rebate for the Rivian.

I object to this "dishonesty" claim. Your term of winter-21 is vague and that's your fault.

I took two specific timeframes and did apples-to-apples comparisons - one from 2021, and another from right now. And right now, if you order a MYLR you WILL be getting a tax rebate by the time you take delivery, same as Rivian.

Can we put on our big-boy pants, quit making up "dishonesty" claims and just accept that in the real world, Rivians are running about $20k higher than MYLRs? Come on, you can do it, no need to put last-years-base-Rivian-with-rebate against today's-magically-tax-rebateless-MY-with-assorted-upgrades.

You may now dance on the head of a "MYLR won't have a rebate for 22 more days" technicality

 

[kelpcar]

I object to this "dishonesty" claim. Your term of winter-21 is vague and that's your fault.

I took two specific timeframes and did apples-to-apples comparisons - one from 2021, and another from right now. And right now, if you order a MYLR you WILL be getting a tax rebate by the time you take delivery, same as Rivian.

Can we put on our big-boy pants, quit making up "dishonesty" claims and just accept that in the real world, Rivians are running about $20k higher than MYLRs? Come on, you can do it, no need to put last-years-base-Rivian-with-rebate against today's-magically-tax-rebateless-MY-with-assorted-upgrades.

You may now dance on the head of a "MYLR won't have a rebate for 22 more days" technicality

There is nothing vague about what winter means, and I also gave an explicit date of early February. You're weaseling. You complained that people were making unfair comparisons by using different dates for pricing, and when shown the comparison for a span over 3 1/2 months, you can't just admit that you are wrong. That's the definition of dishonesty.

It hardly seems necessary, since you quoted it too, but why not. "I put in my order for the R1S on Feb 4th, and for the YLR about a week later."

The difference is $300 bucks. Plain and simple. Even for the LR, it was 8360, and with only seating for 4.7 people.

There's no question that the calculus has changed. But no one was pretending otherwise. It's great that Tesla, Ford, and GM will be on even footing with the others again, The American companies shouldn't be put at a disadvantage for having done their work, along with Nissan, to build the industry. Nor do I object to the pricier models (like Rivian's R1s) being excluded. Though I will if everyone just raises their prices to pocket the money as additional margin.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

There is nothing vague about what winter means, and I also gave an explicit date of early February. You're weaseling. You complained that people were making unfair comparisons by using different dates for pricing, and when shown the comparison for a span over 3 1/2 months, you can't just admit that you are wrong. That's the definition of dishonesty.

It hardly seems necessary, since you quoted it too, but why not. "I put in my order for the R1S on Feb 4th, and for the YLR about a week later."

The difference is $300 bucks. Plain and simple. Even for the LR, it was 8360, and with only seating for 4.7 people.

There's no question that the calculus has changed. But no one was pretending otherwise. It's great that Tesla, Ford, and GM will be on even footing with the others again, The American companies shouldn't be put at a disadvantage for having done their work, along with Nissan, to build the industry. Nor do I object to the pricier models (like Rivian's R1s) being excluded. Though I will if everyone just raises their prices to pocket the money as additional margin.

Thank you for agreeing that the calculus has changed. We're not trying to look at your single two-different-dates-and-pretend-only-one-gets-a-taax-rebate-and-apply-different-options case - we are trying to figure out if an R1S is "the same price" as a MYLR, and it's simply not. Not evevn close. You may now return to your own weaseling. I will not respond further.

 

[kelpcar]

Thank you for agreeing that the calculus has changed. We're not trying to look at your single two-different-dates-and-pretend-only-one-gets-a-taax-rebate-and-apply-different-options case - we are trying to figure out if an R1S is "the same price" as a MYLR, and it's simply not. Not evevn close. You may now return to your own weaseling. I will not respond further.

quit lying then with your BS " We're not trying to look at your single two-different-dates-and-pretend-only-one-gets-a-taax-rebate-and-apply-different-options case" You got hoisted on your own argument and are too immature to admit it.

We're talking about the tens of thousands of folks with outstanding orders made prior to March 1st.

 

[Eric9610]

They've been sold-out for every car they can make.

Can we please stop saying this! The comment is factually not true! as pointed out in this thread, 100's of cars are in stock for immediate delivery...

 

[kelpcar]

Can we please stop saying this! The comment is factually not true! as pointed out in this thread, 100's of cars are in stock for immediate delivery...

that may stop being true again in January. Let's revisit on Feb 1.

In the early half of 2022, every car was months away from delivery. But for a lot of that, Fremont was the only functional plant. Now it's 4 mostly - depending on how China handles their resurgence.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Can we please stop saying this! The comment is factually not true! as pointed out in this thread, 100's of cars are in stock for immediate delivery...

"They've" as in THEY HAVE BEEN. Which has been true for years up until the last month or two as we see some signs of supply finally catching up to demand, exactly as I said. And as I said, Tesla is in the strongest position of anyone to adjust prices down to get demand where they want it since that have the highest cost margins in the world.

 

[DanDi58]

you agree that Elon is basically lying. Their margins will not stand up to increasing competition. He goosed it in 2022 when no one else was delivering in quantity, but that will fall back to earth.

I said no such thing. I have no doubt that raw materials, like everything these days, have gone up (both through supply chain issues and competition for a finite resource). The question is, will they wait to lower prices until they come back down (i.e., like lumber has) or will they have to do it sooner, and cut into their margins.

 

[Daekwan]

They already have lowered prices.

Anybody buying a 3/Y now will get a $3,750 discount if they take delivery before Jan 1st. Now the real question is what happens after Jan 1st?
Do the 3/Y both qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit?
Does Tesla raise prices to absorb the new $7,500 tax credit partially?
Does Tesla lower prices to create even more incentive to buy now?
Does the $3,750 discount for all 3/Y remain, adjust or apply to people unable to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit?

Still a lot of unknowns here. But Im on the side of the fence that prices are going to continue coming down because demand is going to continue coming down. I'm amazed at how many long-time members on this forum seem to honestly believe Tesla can continue selling the 3/Y at its highest price point. The law of supply & demand works both ways.. and it was just 21 months ago that I was able to purchase my MYSR (standard range) new for $39,990. Which had its price reduced from $41,990 just a few weeks before. I have always expected pricing to come back down, once supply caught up with demand. It would be crazier for that not to happen.

You can't have it both ways. You cant double the number of factories from 2 to 4.. an quadruple the annual output of 3/Y vehicles from 500,000 to the current run rate of 2M annually. Then have interest rates quadruple from 1-2% to 6-8%. Fears of recession, corporate layoffs and inflation concerns. And still expect the line of people seriously interested in purchasing a $70K Model to continue growing. It was bound to shorten given all the circumstances thats going on.

And that's before I get to the other points. Like gas at Costco in DC was $3.05/gallon yesterday (the price has been dropping weekly for the past 6 months). Or that low milage 2022 MYLRs are struggling to sell at wholesale auction prices above $52K. Or Elon doing his best to piss off liberal consumers who are ironically his largest target market. I dont see any conservative policticians pushing EV incentives or growing charging networks.

This isn't doom & gloom. It's just the market adjusting. The same way it adjusted upward as the line grew to a year wait and Tesla raised prices on the Model Y by around $17K in the last 20 months. The market is now adjusting the other way.. and Tesla will be fine. It's a great car.. its just the price is no longer great. Most of us who have owned this vehicle openly agree it's not worth the current price. Hence the very title of this thread and the results of the poll.

I welcome the lower pricing as it makes it a much more competitive vehicle and increases the likelihood that I, and others will purchase another Tesla in the future. The higher the price stays.. the more likely I end up looking elsewhere when it comes time to upgrade my MYSR. Which is pretty crazy crazy, considering the vehicle I'm most interested in would be an MYP. That said, I can only afford.. what I can afford and the vehicle has gotten significantly more expensive than it was just a few months ago. Money doesn't grow on trees and definitely doesn't fall from the sky. There is no scenario where a $1000+ monthly car payment is even fathomable in the world I live in.

That said with pricing coming back down, there is a good chance I can afford something like this sooner or later:

 

[RedSupraT]

Great points!

 

[eleison]

Telsa was suppose to be moving down market with the model 3 and Y. When the discounts start to happen, it will be like it should. Tesla stated mission was to replace ICE with electric cars. Can't do that when the average person can't afford to buy your cars. Also, if you look at the design of the model 3 and Y, they are not designed to be luxurious.

The next stage is to build/sell as many cars as possible having lower margins for each car, but selling more cars. This is the toyota/honda model. Right now, Tesla has one of the highest profit margins per car. This is not sustainable in a bad economy.

 

[voxel]

EV demand has tanked with the car market. I declined a Wind AWD order that arrived this week and was offered a GT-Line AWD also - both at MSRP.

I also was offered and declined two fully loaded RAV4 Primes last week also - which was unheard of 6 months ago.

I've seen and heard about a dozen 2023 ID.4s on lots at MSRP. I declined one back in Sept too. Of course they eventually sell because they have the rare EV tax credit... but 2022 ID.4s are sitting on lots.

Polestar 2... wow... they are struggling hard. Polestar dealer keeps emailing me. Tampa had 12+ cars when I test drove one in Sept and now it's probably 20-30. The last e-mail I received listed 10-15 cars with price cuts and lease specials.

Customers are looking at $50K RAV4 Primes, ID.4s, Polestar 2s and asking themselves.. is this worth $50K? The answer is no. Are new Model Ys worth $67K? Heck no... I think $55K might be the right price... but probably sub $50K in reality.

 

[gx9901]

Polestar 2... wow... they are struggling hard. Polestar dealer keeps emailing me. Tampa had 12+ cars when I test drove one in Sept and now it's probably 20-30. The last e-mail I received listed 10-15 cars with price cuts and lease specials.

Customers are looking at $50K RAV4 Primes, ID.4s, Polestar 2s and asking themselves.. is this worth $50K? The answer is no. Are new Model Ys worth $67K? Heck no... I think $55K might be the right price... but probably sub $50K in reality.

Wow, Polestar 2 really got jobbed by the tanking market and missing tax credit! I just check Polestar Minneapolis and counted 19 cars available for immediate delivery, plus a pile due to arrive in January. A few months back when I looked (probably before the IRA was signed into law) there was maybe a couple available.

 

[voxel]

Wow, Polestar 2 really got jobbed by the tanking market and missing tax credit! I just check Polestar Minneapolis and counted 19 cars available for immediate delivery, plus a pile due to arrive in January. A few months back when I looked (probably before the IRA was signed into law) there was maybe a couple available.

They are waaaay overpriced for what you get. I own a BMW i4 now and test drove a loaded P2 at $67K that had a subpar interior, cramped interior, mediocre audio, terrible range (220 miles is not acceptable). Even with the tax credit.. value is iffy.

I heard on the BMW forums about the LA Polestar location providing incredible leases with low MF and an MSRP price cut. Tampa is trimming prices by $3K it seems (listed in the email to me with the car + config) and hinted at "great lease options" which probably means low MF. I'm sure if you wait a bit they will provide you with a can't refuse lease. I would NOT buy one though.

 

[Eric9610]

Current check on stock levels locally shows 5 of each color YLR available for delivery same day. This is worse than when I got my 20, at that time you were lucky if they had 3 total in stock... and that is when the Y was $55k

 

[Daekwan]

They are waaaay overpriced for what you get. I own a BMW i4 now and test drove a loaded P2 at $67K that had a subpar interior, cramped interior, mediocre audio, terrible range (220 miles is not acceptable). Even with the tax credit.. value is iffy.

I heard on the BMW forums about the LA Polestar location providing incredible leases with low MF and an MSRP price cut. Tampa is trimming prices by $3K it seems (listed in the email to me with the car + config) and hinted at "great lease options" which probably means low MF. I'm sure if you wait a bit they will provide you with a can't refuse lease. I would NOT buy one though.

Interesting you passed on both the Wind & GT-Line AWD. I feel like the hype on the Koreans has come & gone. Its now a bargain EV.
Really surprised to hear about the RAV4 Prime as that seems like the most sought-after vehicle in the entire market.. at least at MSRP.
The Polestar & ID.4 sitting on lots isn't surprising. Good cars, but the price is no longer competitive. These were bargain EVs.. that have crept up to premium EV pricing.

Interesting you went with the BMW i4. Seems to have amazing reviews and it's secretly a hatchback. $68K starting price on the M50.. which beats the MYP in acceleration.. interior is absolutely gorgeous.. and $2K upgrade gets you the fancy color HUD, huge screens, and other really cool tech. So very competitive at $70K if you are the typical BMW customer. Much better deal than something like the traditional M3. Not sure if it qualifies for the tax credit. Would love to hear your thoughts on it!

 

[Apprunner]

Interesting you passed on both the Wind & GT-Line AWD. I feel like the hype on the Koreans has come & gone. Its now a bargain EV.
Really surprised to hear about the RAV4 Prime as that seems like the most sought-after vehicle in the entire market.. at least at MSRP.
The Polestar & ID.4 sitting on lots isn't surprising. Good cars, but the price is no longer competitive. These were bargain EVs.. that have crept up to premium EV pricing.

Interesting you went with the BMW i4. Seems to have amazing reviews and it's secretly a hatchback. $68K starting price on the M50.. which beats the MYP in acceleration.. interior is absolutely gorgeous.. and $2K upgrade gets you the fancy color HUD, huge screens, and other really cool tech. So very competitive at $70K if you are the typical BMW customer. Much better deal than something like the traditional M3. Not sure if it qualifies for the tax credit. Would love to hear your thoughts on it!

I wouldn't call a $50K+ EV a bargain EV. They also sell every single one they make and there is still a long waitlist to get one in California for both the Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. They just released a Model Y competitor with 577hp thats about as fast as a Model 3 Performance and those have $10k+ markups due to supply and demand. I see a ton of Ioniq 5s in my area now too so good for them.

Also, the i4 is small and hardly a Model Y competitor. Its a good Model 3 competitor though with more trunk space but less rear seat space. It also seems to have pretty good pricing.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I wouldn't call a $50K+ EV a bargain EV. They also sell every single one they make and there is still a long waitlist to get one in California for both the Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. They just released a Model Y competitor with 577hp thats about as fast as a Model 3 Performance and those have $10k+ markups due to supply and demand. I see a ton of Ioniq 5s in my area now too so good for them.

Also, the i4 is small and hardly a Model Y competitor. Its a good Model 3 competitor though with more trunk space but less rear seat space. It also seems to have pretty good pricing.

i4:
256mi eDrive 35 $51.4k
301mi eDrive 40 $55.9k
227-271mi M50 $67.3k

And watch Bjørn Nyland's videos where he mentions some fast charging issues.