Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet.

Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Musk said his personal car is running a “bleeding edge alpha build” of the software, which he also mentioned during Tesla’s Q2 earnings. 

“So it’s almost getting to the point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” Musk said on the earnings call. “So this is why I am very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year, is because I’m literally driving it.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software has been slow to roll out against the company’s promises. Musk previously said a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York using the Full Self Driving feature by the end of 2019. The company didn’t meet that goal. So, it will be interesting to see the state of Autopilot at the end of 2020.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Obviously Tesla could choose to give FSD V2/V3 owners true Full Self Driving but it's not guaranteed, otherwise they wouldn't be able to recognize the revenue.
If they can't achieve Full Self Driving with existing hardware it seems like FSD V1 purchasers would get a refund whereas FSD V2/V3 purchasers would not (depending on how one interprets "automatic driving on city streets" for V2 purchasers.)

They never removed the original verbage describing the feature.
That means everyone who bought the future falls under the definition of that feature.

I would think the court would side with the most broad definition of the feature in a class action suit.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Oh, that reminds me - that's another thing I am hoping for with FSD (really HW3). When I use my windshield wipers, my car tends to detect bad weather and make NoA unavailable (seems to have little consequence but it is dumb). Hoping that will improve. Might need a very deep, deep neural net to sort that one out.

Not sure it requires a quantum leap, either, fortunately. Might just require better coding (namely, maybe it could take into account that it is 95 degrees out and sunny (which it is certainly aware of - I'm sure it can see the sun!!!), and that I just used my spray and windshield wipers - this does not seem that difficult - no quantum leaps required)! Frankly, I'm pretty sure fixing this will not require HW3.


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I'm not sure what @mspisars is being so disagreeable about. I wish he could describe exactly what he thinks I am going to be getting, and why. This is (roughly) what I expect (again, I don't expect it, really). Is there a reason I should expect more? This is the "version" of FSD that Tesla is on the hook for - for me. If they can do it with HW3, then I'll only get HW3, presumably. Other people who bought earlier have more expansive descriptions of their deliverable, so maybe they'll be entitled to something else hardware wise (or, more likely, compensation).

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I don't know what you expect, nor do I care what you expect.

But I expect to get what I paid for and that is described in three paragraph description of the feature.

 

[powertoold]

I think Elon's perspective on FSD is as follows:

Level 5 = feature-complete

Feature-complete = can perform all basic functionality that humans can: merge, lane keep, change lanes, exit, traffic controls, turns, roundabouts, etc. Feature-complete also implies that the software will be able to handle future edge-case development.

Trailing 9s: once feature-complete is achieved, it may be a lot worse than humans. The team will have to polish up the edge cases.

 

[Snerruc]

I don’t see how the current hardware set can ever pass safely on a two lane road. You need to see a mile down the road and the best I’ve seen is 700 feet on seeing stoplights. Also, the cameras are on the centerline of the car and can’t see ahead until half way into the oncoming lane-way dangerous. A camera with a range of at least a mile in the drivers side mirror would be needed.

 

[cucubits]

I don’t see how the current hardware set can ever pass safely on a two lane road. You need to see a mile down the road and the best I’ve seen is 700 feet on seeing stoplights. Also, the cameras are on the centerline of the car and can’t see ahead until half way into the oncoming lane-way dangerous. A camera with a range of at least a mile in the drivers side mirror would be needed.

It can't and it won't. I've been saying this for a long time but it's mostly to poke at angry fanbois. There's no way they will achieve true hands off self driving with the current hardware. Not going to happen, no way. Software can't solve everything. I feel for those who paid 6,7,8k for FSD but in the end, it was their choice to believe in some fairy tale promises...

 

[mikes_fsd]

You need to see a mile down the road and the best I’ve seen is 700 feet on seeing stoplights. Also, the cameras are on the centerline of the car and can’t see ahead until half way into the oncoming lane-way dangerous. A camera with a range of at least a mile in the drivers side mirror would be needed.

No you don't.
You need to see enough to be able to properly react to the situation first, safely and secondly comfortably.

Stopping distance is a good measure to start with (measured from 60 mph to 0)
Model 3 stopping distance is 133 ft
Model S stopping distance is 118 ft dry/129 ft wet

So, you need to be able to identify (at minimum) at these distances. The front cameras on Teslas see 250 m (~820 ft), 150 m (~500 ft), and 60 m (~200 ft). The side cameras are able to see 80 m (~260 ft).

All already greater than the stopping distance from 60 mph.

As others have also pointed out, the BS about not seeing cross-traffic, the b-pillar and the wide angle cameras get more than enough information for safe operation.
I will direct you to greens YouTube channel that has documented this many times over: https://www.youtube.com/user/greentheonly/videos

This article might be a good basic start Here's what Tesla's Autopilot 2.0 can see with its 8 cameras - Electrek

 

[diplomat33]

Green found something interesting. Looks like we will able to customize NOA to stay in the passing lane if we want to.

 

[Daniel in SD]

stay in the passing lane

Has science gone too far? This is not the human behavior they should be emulating.

 

[diplomat33]

Has science gone too far? This is not the human behavior they should be emulating.

I agree it is odd. I thought that it was required to always exit the passing lane. But maybe some countries are different?

But, I am just the messenger.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I agree it is odd. I thought that it was required to always exit the passing lane. But maybe some countries are different?

But, I am just the messenger.

I think there was a big argument about it in this thread: Navigate On Autopilot: automatic lane change results
Some older versions of NoA would stay in the passing lane. I guess the sociopaths are going to get this "feature" back.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Green found something interesting. Looks like we will able to customize NOA to stay in the passing lane if we want to.

I don't see another way where Tesla would satisfy everyone.

The arguments about this have been going on on this forum and on Twitter for a while.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don't see another way where Tesla would satisfy everyone.

The arguments about this have been going on on this forum and on Twitter for a while.

They should call it "Left Lane Prius" mode then to discourage use.
Toyota Adds Left Lane Keep Assist To Prius
Hopefully this code is also a joke?

 

[cucubits]

When enabled it will probably also set the speed to the limit minus 10

 

[powertoold]

Useful in the bay area where the car considers the middle lane (to the right of the HOV lane) to be a passing lane, which is technically true, but no one treats the middle lane as a passing lane.

 

[dgatwood]

Has science gone too far? This is not the human behavior they should be emulating.

In an eight-lane highway at rush hour, keeping the left lane as a "passing" lane just means that the other lanes will have 33% more cars each, so traffic will be that much slower. The right passing lane behavior is entirely dependent on traffic conditions, so unless it is explicitly required by law (and maybe even if it is), giving users the ability to disable that behavior is a good thing.

 

[Cheburashka]

In an eight-lane highway at rush hour, keeping the left lane as a "passing" lane just means that the other lanes will have 33% more cars each, so traffic will be that much slower. The right passing lane behavior is entirely dependent on traffic conditions, so unless it is explicitly required by law (and maybe even if it is), giving users the ability to disable that behavior is a good thing.

No.

After the quantum leap they might as well remove the steering wheel. I have no idea why they are even bothering with this feature when we're so close to FSD and the quantum leap.

@mspisars, what's the quantum leap timeline by the way?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Useful in the bay area where the car considers the middle lane (to the right of the HOV lane) to be a passing lane, which is technically true, but no one treats the middle lane as a passing lane.

Haha. The reason it's not the passing lane is that you have to pass people on the right because they're camping in it.

In an eight-lane highway at rush hour, keeping the left lane as a "passing" lane just means that the other lanes will have 33% more cars each, so traffic will be that much slower. The right passing lane behavior is entirely dependent on traffic conditions, so unless it is explicitly required by law (and maybe even if it is), giving users the ability to disable that behavior is a good thing.

If there is no one in the left lane then you could use it to continually pass people and the car should never move back to the right. This should be the default behavior.

 

[Buckminster]

We need a middle lane hogger mode for the UK please:
The facts about hogging the middle lane

 

[diplomat33]

Green found a yield sign asset which hints that Tesla is working on implementing yielding at intersections:

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1304788205905104897

 

[mikes_fsd]

what's the quantum leap timeline by the way

Twitter

Twitter

Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks.