Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet.

Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Musk said his personal car is running a “bleeding edge alpha build” of the software, which he also mentioned during Tesla’s Q2 earnings. 

“So it’s almost getting to the point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” Musk said on the earnings call. “So this is why I am very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year, is because I’m literally driving it.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software has been slow to roll out against the company’s promises. Musk previously said a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York using the Full Self Driving feature by the end of 2019. The company didn’t meet that goal. So, it will be interesting to see the state of Autopilot at the end of 2020.

 

[Snuffysasa]

I can see this creating some pretty dangerous scenarios. If the driver is not always paying 100% attention and the car starts breaking at a green light, it increases the chances to get rear ended. Not sure how this works in other states but in texas, green, especially if it's been on for a while, means one must needlessly accelerate to make sure he/she gets to pass. No one expects a car to break at a green light.

Most of the times I do slow down before a green light. Red, for the cross traffic, is also regarded as optional. Texans are special, they even got red light cameras voted out last year *facepalm*.

Versus previous autopilot that has been available for 5 years now that if the driver isn't paying attention it would run right through a red light without warning....

which would you prefer slowly slowing down and stopping at green light with a chine telling you to pay attention.... or running a red light without warning...

It's also interesting to note, that both of theses cases are available and have been for several years and maybe a billion miles (5 billion, but much less off highways)... and this has never been an issue, nor has there ever been an accident that I am aware of due to this.

I knew when this feature was coming out, people would complain about this being a safety issue, and people did... however, there has still never been any cases of that happening.

 

[cucubits]

which would you prefer slowly slowing down and stopping at green light with a chine telling you to pay attention.... or running a red light without warning...

At this point, with the current state of AP, the preferred and recommended way would be to not use AP at all on roads with stoplights. City driving has not been released yet and there are no stoplights on highways where AP is supposed to be used.

 

[Snuffysasa]

Mobileye is deploying hands-free ADAS that works on highway, connected roads and city streets. It's called SuperVision and will use 11 cameras, 2 EyeQ5 chips, and Mobileye's own Driving Policy and HD maps too. Mobileye will also provide their own OTA updates to cars. It is coming to Chinese EVs next year.

https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2020/09/supervision-product-brief.pdf

Why the Geely Auto Group Win is a Game Changer | Intel Newsroom

Tesla needs to show us what the famed rewrite can do. If not, it looks like Mobileye just jumped ahead of Tesla.

This.

I recommend people here watch these videos 1 2. Everything shown in these videos is now coming to a consumer vehicle in ~1 year at pricing for high volumes.

I am excited for the rewrite and overtime I expect significant improvements, however by Fall of 2021 I do not expect Tesla FSD to be anywhere close this mobileye stack which will then be in the hands of consumers. Yes, unfortunately, this is only available in China for now, however, I look forward to it coming to other countries after this.

Additionally, another OEM will announce mobileye SuperVision in December of this year, except with the additional redundant radar / lidar subsystem for eyes off driving.

 

[Snuffysasa]

At this point, with the current state of AP, the preferred and recommended way would be to not use AP at all on roads with stoplights. City driving has not been released yet and there are no stoplights on highways where AP is supposed to be used.

Yea, but the user can choose when and when not to use autopilot on city roads. And in many cases autopilot does increase safety in city roads. If you disable autopilot use on city roads, the accident rate would increase overall.

When autopilot first launched you could not use it off the highway. Later, they enabled using it on city roads because it increases safety. Then after that they enabled stoplight control, because it increases safety.

 

[diplomat33]

This.

I recommend people here watch these videos 1 2. Everything shown in these videos is now coming to a consumer vehicle in ~1 year at pricing for high volumes.

I am excited for the rewrite and overtime I expect significant improvements, however by Fall of 2021 I do not expect Tesla FSD to be anywhere close this mobileye stack which will then be in the hands of consumers. Yes, unfortunately, this is only available in China for now, however, I look forward to it coming to other countries after this.

Additionally, another OEM will announce mobileye SuperVision in December of this year, except with the additional redundant radar / lidar subsystem for eyes off driving.

Yeah, I am really looking forward to Mobileye's new system coming to the US.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Versus previous autopilot that has been available for 5 years now that if the driver isn't paying attention it would run right through a red light without warning....

which would you prefer slowly slowing down and stopping at green light with a chine telling you to pay attention.... or running a red light without warning...

It's also interesting to note, that both of theses cases are available and have been for several years and maybe a billion miles (5 billion, but much less off highways)... and this has never been an issue, nor has there ever been an accident that I am aware of due to this.

I knew when this feature was coming out, people would complain about this being a safety issue, and people did... however, there has still never been any cases of that happening.

There was an accident in Los Angeles that is being investigated. The NHTSA probably wouldn't be investigating unless they thought Autopilot was being used.
A Model S driver ran a red light at the end of a freeway: NHTSA Will Probe Fatal Tesla Crash in LA
I think braking for all lights, red or green, is a good idea. Though I'm definitely not convinced that Autopilot improves safety beyond the other active safety features on Teslas (emergency braking, lane departure, forward collision alert, etc.).

 

[powertoold]

It'll be great to see the new MobileEye features and systems in the USA, but there's no way it'll be as useful to as many people compared to Tesla. Imo, Tesla is very far ahead in the impact of their automation features. I'm confident no one will catch up in the next 10 years (I can only see Chinese companies potentially catching up).

As far as I know, Tesla's autopilot is probably the most pervasive and often used NN-based automation system deployed right now.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It'll be great to see the new MobileEye features and systems in the USA, but there's no way it'll be as useful to as many people compared to Tesla. Imo, Tesla is very far ahead in the impact of their automation features. I'm confident no one will catch up in the next 10 years (I can only see Chinese companies potentially catching up).

As far as I know, Tesla's autopilot is probably the most pervasive and often used NN-based automation system in use today.

Mobileye sold 17.5 million chipsets in 2019.

 

[Snuffysasa]

It'll be great to see the new MobileEye features and systems in the USA, but there's no way it'll be as useful to as many people compared to Tesla. Imo, Tesla is very far ahead in the impact of their automation features. I'm confident no one will catch up in the next 10 years (I can only see Chinese companies potentially catching up).

As far as I know, Tesla's autopilot is probably the most pervasive and often used NN-based automation system deployed right now.

I think you misunderstand. Why do you say won't be as useful as Tesla. And Tesla ahead in automation features?

This mobileye system is different that mobileye is doing the full stack, including the automation features and path planning and control. And they are offering door to door autonomy. roundabouts, intersection, 90 degree turns, point to point autonomy.

Yes, I think Tesla FSD will offer all of that eventually as well. However, the disengagements per mile and general performance will have a stark difference.

did you watch those 2 videos I linked? All of those features and capabilities are going to consumer vehicle.

 

[murc585]

I think you misunderstand. Why do you say won't be as useful as Tesla. And Tesla ahead in automation features?

This mobileye system is different that mobileye is doing the full stack, including the automation features and path planning and control. And they are offering door to door autonomy. roundabouts, intersection, 90 degree turns, point to point autonomy.

Yes, I think Tesla FSD will offer all of that eventually as well. However, the disengagements per mile and general performance will have a stark difference.

did you watch those 2 videos I linked? All of those features and capabilities are going to consumer vehicle.

Are the two linked videos showing examples with cities which have been per-scanned for use with high definition maps?

What is the power consumption of this system and can it work without high definition maps?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Are the two linked videos showing examples with cities which have been per-scanned for use with high definition maps?

What is the power consumption of this system and can it work without high definition maps?

At 8 minutes in the second video they talk about automated mapping a little bit.
The EyeQ5 chip uses 5W a piece.

 

[Snuffysasa]

Are the two linked videos showing examples with cities which have been per-scanned for use with high definition maps?

What is the power consumption of this system and can it work without high definition maps?

few things:

First on power consumption like the other guy it said it used two EyeQ5... I think they use 5-10W each though, but either way vastly less power than Tesla FSD computer.

next, on HD mapping,

first of all... even if I did say yes it uses ultra hd lidar prescanned maps... maps only have anything to do with the static objects... you can see from these videos that the perception and negotiation of dynamic objects is way farther ahead than anything Tesla has, and much farther than I expect Tesla to be 12 months post rewrite.

however, that is not the case, the mapping used in this video (and in the consumer product coming to market)... is similar to the mapping that Tesla fleet uses anyways... they use the exact same techniques of visual landmark extraction, harvesting, matching, and localization... In both cases the maps are made only by the cameras from the ADAS fleet vehicles (well maybe a few other non sensor sources)... I think Tesla's maps are probably accurate to 20-30cm.. and I think mobileye is down to around 10cm... but regardless of map accuracy they are used in similar ways, however, I think mobileye stack uses maps to a little higher degree than Tesla does now... (but that could change)

and yes, this whole perception stack and features can still be ran even if there aren't any maps... say someone drives their car to a remote area.

And lastly, just to make sure you understand, this is coming to consumer vehicles that can be used across all of China, not just individual cities. Sure, at first they might restrict to certain roads and expand overtime as more vehicles drive them. (just like Tesla has done)

Edit: So many typos jeez

 

[Snuffysasa]

There was an accident in Los Angeles that is being investigated. The NHTSA probably wouldn't be investigating unless they thought Autopilot was being used.
A Model S driver ran a red light at the end of a freeway: NHTSA Will Probe Fatal Tesla Crash in LA.

Thanks, I'll follow that and consider that.

 

[diplomat33]

Are the two linked videos showing examples with cities which have been per-scanned for use with high definition maps?

Yes. But this is not a bad thing. HD maps are not "virtual rails" for the car to follow. HD maps do not mean that the car does not know how to drive a route.

HD maps are like memory. With HD maps, the car remembers where the stop signs and traffic lights are, what the lanes do etc... The car does not have to re-learn where those objects are each time it drives that route.

Also, by creating the HD maps first before you deploy the system, you basically give the car knowledge of the road and static objects before it even drives that route for the first time. Basically, the first time you get in your new car and drive it off the dealership lot, the car will already what the roads looks like, where the lanes are, where the stop signs are, where the traffic lights are, where the crosswalks are, where the curbs are, etc... The car will have that pre-knowledge before you even do a route for the first time.

Lastly, HD maps also allow the camera vision to focus more on moving objects like pedestrians and other vehicles since the car already knows where all the static objects are. So HD maps are super useful and make FSD more reliable.

What is the power consumption of this system and can it work without high definition maps?

5W per chip. And the car has two chips. So a total of 10W.

Yes, it can work without HD maps. Mobileye's camera vision is very good and complete, better than Tesla's. But for all the advantages I mentioned above, Mobileye requires HD maps in order to make sure the system is as reliable as possible.

Also, Mobileye has leveraged about 2M cars with cameras and their chips to create HD maps. And the process is completely automated. So Mobileye has already created HD maps for a lot of areas.

 

[Snuffysasa]

Also, Mobileye has leveraged about 2M cars with cameras and their chips to create HD maps. And the process is completely automated. So

Oh man, I think it is way higher than 2M now... I think there are over 2M on each main continent now. I guess we'll probably get an update in November or CES 2021

 

[diplomat33]

Oh man, I think it is way higher than 2M now... I think there are over 2M on each main continent now. I guess we'll probably get an update in November or CES 2021

Yeah. 2M is the last number I heard.

 

[powertoold]

Lol you guys are funny. The MobileEye systems in the cars currently are almost all AP1 level or worse. They constantly fail (most sharp curves) and/or deactivate (for example crossing an intersection). They aren't used as much or are as useful 802.11ac MIMO current AP2+.

 

[diplomat33]

Lol you guys are funny. The MobileEye systems in the cars currently are basically all AP1 level or worse. They constantly fail and deactivate. They aren't used as much or are as useful as current AP2+.

We are not talking about the old Mobileye ADAS. We are talking about the new Mobileye ADAS being deployed in cars next year which will offer hands-free highway and city driving. It will use 11 cameras and use Mobileye's latest 360 degree surround camera vision and driving policy. It's basically Mobileye's "FSD".

 

[powertoold]

Exactly, my point is that autopilot is the most used and is the most useful and is the most impactful automation system based on neural networks currently. I can assure you that most of the cars equipped with mobileeye systems do not have both auto steer and traffic aware cruise control enabled. That’s because people have to pay extra for the auto steer feature. Traffic aware cruise control alone is not considered automation IMO. Automation means the car is driving itself without your input.

 

[Snuffysasa]

Lol you guys are funny. The MobileEye systems in the cars currently are almost all AP1 level or worse. They constantly fail (most sharp curves) and/or deactivate (for example crossing an intersection). They aren't used as much or are as useful 802.11ac MIMO current AP2+.

This is irrelevant man. These are systems that use mobileye CV from 6 -10 years ago. (before Tesla AP even existed)

But the main thing is that the rest of the stack was not developed by mobileye, but was developed by incompetent tier1 teams that have no stake in the product on low budgets.

Did you watch the videos or not? because they do not match what you described