My prediction on Model 3/Tesla

[JRP3]

On the other hand if you're honest it forces you to admit you were wrong instead of denying that you ever held an incorrect position. Believe it or not but I've actually been wrong once or twice and when corrected with factual data I was able to concede the point.

 

[ohmman]

I don’t see much value at all in not being reminded of my errors. I want to be corrected so that I can make the appropriate mental adjustments. Our goal as humans is to be less wrong as we move forward, isn’t it?

 

[mongo]

I don’t see much value at all in not being reminded of my errors. I want to be corrected so that I can make the appropriate mental adjustments. Our goal as humans is to be less wrong as we move forward, isn’t it?

Can I be wrong about different things instead? If the goal is not being wrong, the result can be complacency and fear of change.

 

[ohmman]

Can I be wrong about different things instead? If the goal is not being wrong, the result can be complacency and fear of change.

Less wrong was supposed to imply adding humility. It’s easy to be “less wrong” if you don’t make future looking statements with great confidence. But if one makes statements as fact, is proven wrong, and continues to represent future opinion as fact, they aren’t learning. I certainly don’t think the goal is to not be wrong. That’s unachievable.

Opinion exists in the absence of fact, so therefore should come naturally with a level of humility. At least that’s how I view it.

A member here for whom I have great respect had once made a couple of significant predictions that wound up being false. The member was called out and I watched them own it and correct the behavior. I respect that tremendously.

 

[Unpilot]

You guys are too impatient. Hittman is busy writing a missive admitting the error in his ways.
He just wants to get it right this time.

 

[Richt]

So... it is exactly one year later, would you like to give us cheerleaders an update on the impending doom of Tesla due to the Model 3 production?

You have a great calendar app. What a difference a year makes!!!

 

[Gavyne]

This thread confused the hell out of me...until I read the date. Nice necro, good times.

You know how I know people are wrong about Tesla? A year ago, I knew nothing about Tesla. Heck I even missed the whole Model 3 reveal since average Americans like me wouldn't know it even happened. 5 months ago I started to look into Tesla, 4 months ago I placed my Model 3 order, 3 months ago I took delivery. I've never been happier.

If some average nobody like me can find out about Tesla in some random youtube video, and get interested enough to look into the Model 3. Then there are TONS of average Americans out there ready to buy a Model 3. Most of them just don't know enough about Tesla yet, some know nothing at all like I was a year ago. And that's in part due to how the media & public perceptions are controlled.

 

[MXWing]

I have mixed feelings on this idea that the written record forcing you to own your opinions is a good idea.

Historically one of the best ways to change a view was the debated argument followed by a cooling off period. You walked away and mulledover what was said and then you had the ability to escape yourself if you realized you were wrong.

But also everyone else soon forgot a lot of the details of different speakers so you didn’t get held down and dragged out for whatever you might have said and your changing stance was more readily accepted by both yourself and others.

So I am more of the opinion that’s it’s only good to dig up someone’s past statements if they try to double down on them.

But I worry just as much that people double down because their own past is as visible to them as it is to others...

It was just a lot easier to change my own mind about things back when I could let my brain forget some if how stuck in a stance I once was...

Just think about how important “forgetting” some things is for your own sanity, and well, also for larger society...

People get called out more often if they are remembered for throwing a lot of heat.

@Hitman007 deserves every bit of clowning he is receiving and going to receive.

If he threw a moderate view, he’d get a moderate rebuke.

 

[Electroman]

See here is my problem. If you have been acting like a jerk, making your opinions known like a troll, dripping with sarcasm and hate - then you should be called out when you are wrong. Especially when you start a new topic just to be sure your opinion is not lost as a reply buried deep in a bigger thread. And in this case he even goaded the rest of us to come back and tell him that how right he was.

I used an un-parliamentary word last time and justifiably mods moved it to snippiness. I will be careful this time - these guys are nothing but rear-end orifices.

One of the the biggest of rear-end orifice on the internet, made a few predictions like this. In fact in one of them - I can't seem to find it out now because it is behind a paywall - he said, "I predict, Tesla will not make any profits in any quarter this year". Should have taken a screen shot then.

 

[Electroman]

This thread confused the hell out of me...until I read the date. Nice necro, good times.

You know how I know people are wrong about Tesla? A year ago, I knew nothing about Tesla. Heck I even missed the whole Model 3 reveal since average Americans like me wouldn't know it even happened. 5 months ago I started to look into Tesla, 4 months ago I placed my Model 3 order, 3 months ago I took delivery. I've never been happier.

If some average nobody like me can find out about Tesla in some random youtube video, and get interested enough to look into the Model 3. Then there are TONS of average Americans out there ready to buy a Model 3. Most of them just don't know enough about Tesla yet, some know nothing at all like I was a year ago. And that's in part due to how the media & public perceptions are controlled.

Exactly.

When the Know-It-All commentators come to CNBC and Bloomberg and give advice to Musk to:

"ignore the shorts and all negative FUD stories from the media and just simply focus on delivering, then everything will be all right"

I say they are completely wrong.

For a consumer product like a car, perception, reviews, word of mouth, CR reviews - everything matters. You could make the best product, but simply cannot overcome if there is a widely held perception that Tesla's catch fire or Tesla will be bankrupt within a year. And that is EXACTLY what the shorts, haters and the pimps in the media were hoping will happen. By continuously spinning exaggerated negative stories they were hoping Model 3 demand will dry up, and then it is recipe for bootstrap to death. Fortunately the positive social media buzz from the owners drowned out the planned attacks from the shorts and media.

So every bit of comment you make in Twitter, in TMC and YouTube absolutely helps.

 

[Richt]

Yes so glad the positive buzz blew away the negative. The cars really are remarkable and so cool to so many new folks arrive. Heck we got our first Tesla a year ago and couldn’t believe how amazing it was!

 

[StellarRat]

I only really want to throw it back in someone's face when they obviously have done no research and have not even admitted in the slightest that there are factors that could affect their opinions. We make all kinds of predictions at my job, but there is always a section in every plan that states the possible risks that could affect our projects. That way we put everything we know on the table and the things we don't know completely or at all (the known unknowns as our friend Donald Rumsfeld once said.) If we fail there then we learn something in post project debrief. It's the best you can do without a crystal ball. Hitman didn't even admit there was a single thing that could possibly go wrong with his prediction. He never considered the possibly that Tesla could learn from it's mistakes, didn't consider that the Model 3 could be better than most people could have imagined, didn't take into account how loyal/patient Tesla customers could be, etc...

As a side note: When I put my reservation money down I told my friend that I didn't think we'd get our cars until late 2018 or 2019. I had already done some research on Tesla and I knew that what they were trying to do with the Model 3 was what I consider "new" technology. Where I work, whenever we see "new" technology going into a project we automatically double or triple our time estimates. I think most people that put their original $1K reservation in knew it would be literally years before they would have a car. I knew that and that's why I wasn't predicting doom and gloom on cancelled reservations. I don't consider myself a genius or anything close to it, but certainly wouldn't have bet against people not being willing to wait a long time.

 

[Dana1]

Wife decided to skip her model 3 and take refund
Early line waiter/tesla ms owners. She's getting a 2012 panamera turbo with warranty for about the same price the model 3 would cost us and the panny is a much much bettter car overall. Can't even compare the two. Good move on her part.

I traded in my Panamera when my $120k car peed on my feet and buttons dropped into console never never land. After a number of incidents the first 18 months I figured the Panamera might not be a good choice once warranty was up.

 

[Dr. J]

Hitman didn't even admit there was a single thing that could possibly go wrong with his prediction. He never considered the possibly that Tesla could learn from it's mistakes, didn't consider that the Model 3 could be better than most people could have imagined, didn't take into account how loyal/patient Tesla customers could be, etc...

But he did:
"... I want them to succeed and help change the planet and I guess in some way I am hoping someone important at Tesla can think about this and change the direction before its too late."

So he can still weasel out on his prediction and say that Elon called and asked for his advice and then followed it...Voila! Prediction realized.

 

[Richt]

I only really want to throw it back in someone's face when they obviously have done no research and have not even admitted in the slightest that there are factors that could affect their opinions. We make all kinds of predictions at my job, but there is always a section in every plan that states the possible risks that could affect our projects. That way we put everything we know on the table and the things we don't know completely or at all (the known unknowns as our friend Donald Rumsfeld once said.) If we fail there then we learn something in post project debrief. It's the best you can do without a crystal ball. Hitman didn't even admit there was a single thing that could possibly go wrong with his prediction. He never considered the possibly that Tesla could learn from it's mistakes, didn't consider that the Model 3 could be better than most people could have imagined, didn't take into account how loyal/patient Tesla customers could be, etc... It was an arrogant statement and therefore I don't feel sorry for him.

Kl

I traded in my Panamera when my $120k car peed on my feet and buttons dropped into console never never land. After a number of incidents the first 18 months I figured the Panamera might not be a good choice once warranty was up.

Same thing happened with the BMW 5-Series I had, smartest decision was giving it back before the warranty ran out!

 

[Shizzrock]

Oh snap I read through the whole thread thinking he just posted it today, that dude got clowned

 

[KnoxEVfan]

So... it is exactly one year later, would you like to give us cheerleaders an update on the impending doom of Tesla due to the Model 3 production?

Apparently I am still too new to upvote your post, but here is my unofficial thumbs up! Has everyone read the excellent article on how Germany's car industry stands before a crisis hardly anyone knows about? This is the link: Tesla, An Uncomfortable Wake-Up Call For Germany. All Hands On Deck! | CleanTechnica

 

[Matt L]

I want to document this right now so that the Tesla cheerleaders can jump all over me but then I can refer back to this post in one years time. The Model 3 will bankrupt Tesla. The bottleneck will get worse, the "cancelation of orders" dam will burst in the next 6 months (Americans hate waiting for anything) and that will be the beginning of the end. Once the stock starts the avalanche slide the end will be near. Its too bad because the S and X were doing well except for their own parts supply issues which still aren't solved. The automotive landscape is littered with the carcasses of cutting edge start up car companies. De Lorean, AMC, Fiskar, etc. Its a very tough business with huge entry barriers. People smarter than Elon Musk have failed. The 3 was pushed too hard too fast. They would have been better off quietly releasing it until they could actually do meaningful production numbers. They took too many folks deposits way too soon setting themselves up for failure. While you may read this and feel I am just looking for a fight or a reason to knock Tesla I am not. I want them to succeed and help change the planet and I guess in some way I am hoping someone important at Tesla can think about this and change the direction before its too late.

I predict you are no longer on the forum

 

[Kichwas]

I thought I saw pretty recent posts from Hitman007...
(bad choice of name BTW).

But they might have been necros of old threads like this one. Could swear I saw posts in the days right before the Q3 earnings call.

 

[akhafagi]

I want to document this right now so that the Tesla cheerleaders can jump all over me but then I can refer back to this post in one years time. The Model 3 will bankrupt Tesla. The bottleneck will get worse, the "cancelation of orders" dam will burst in the next 6 months (Americans hate waiting for anything) and that will be the beginning of the end. Once the stock starts the avalanche slide the end will be near. Its too bad because the S and X were doing well except for their own parts supply issues which still aren't solved. The automotive landscape is littered with the carcasses of cutting edge start up car companies. De Lorean, AMC, Fiskar, etc. Its a very tough business with huge entry barriers. People smarter than Elon Musk have failed. The 3 was pushed too hard too fast. They would have been better off quietly releasing it until they could actually do meaningful production numbers. They took too many folks deposits way too soon setting themselves up for failure. While you may read this and feel I am just looking for a fight or a reason to knock Tesla I am not. I want them to succeed and help change the planet and I guess in some way I am hoping someone important at Tesla can think about this and change the direction before its too late.