I want to document this right now so that the Tesla cheerleaders can jump all over me but then I can refer back to this post in one years time. The Model 3 will bankrupt Tesla. The bottleneck will get worse, the "cancelation of orders" dam will burst in the next 6 months (Americans hate waiting for anything) and that will be the beginning of the end. Once the stock starts the avalanche slide the end will be near. Its too bad because the S and X were doing well except for their own parts supply issues which still aren't solved. The automotive landscape is littered with the carcasses of cutting edge start up car companies. De Lorean, AMC, Fiskar, etc. Its a very tough business with huge entry barriers. People smarter than Elon Musk have failed. The 3 was pushed too hard too fast. They would have been better off quietly releasing it until they could actually do meaningful production numbers. They took too many folks deposits way too soon setting themselves up for failure. While you may read this and feel I am just looking for a fight or a reason to knock Tesla I am not. I want them to succeed and help change the planet and I guess in some way I am hoping someone important at Tesla can think about this and change the direction before its too late.
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I will also go on the record. You couldn't be more wrong.
The model 3 will catapult Tesla into the main stream, securing their future as one of the world's best companies.
The model 3 will catapult Tesla into the main stream, securing their future as one of the world's best companies.
Let's just for a moment assume your prediction about bankruptcy comes true. The consequences may be of little relevance to much of the marketplace. Bankruptcy doesn't mean the company disappears. Given the brand name value, existing owner body, and potential value of vehicle programs in development, I would suggest standing out of the way as buyers rush in to buy the company's assets in totality. It might distress some for Tesla to become a brand in the portfolio of GM, Ford, or some other, but there is far too much established value for any other outcome. Unlike deLorean, Fiskar, etc., Tesla has well-developed and highly desired vehicles. Your reference to AMC actually supports my position...what is the fate of the brand they once owned....Jeep? It is printing money and volumes have grown dramatically in past decades under the successor owner after that acquisition by then-Chrysler. The next step for Tesla if acquired by anyone else would be the influx of seasoned manufacturing experts...not necessarily a bad thing. Sure, there would be the usual angst inside the company as with any M&A, but vehicles would be more likely to flow and market share might only increase.
ProphetM
Member
This may be the first time I have ever heard of AMC referred to as a 'startup' car company. American Motors Corporation dates back to the founding of Hudson Motors in 1909 and Nash Motors in 1916. The Nash and Hudson auto brands existed for over 40 years, being phased out after the merger that created AMC in 1954. They operated for another 30+ years after that, buying Jeep in 1970 and finally being purchased themselves in 1987. 70 years is a pretty darn good run. Engines and other parts that had their origins with AMC were being used in Jeeps until 2006.
Their offshoot AM General, creator of the Humvee, is still going today.
Their offshoot AM General, creator of the Humvee, is still going today.
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Dr. J
Active Member
Build more cars? Which they are working on....
To be clear, I disagree with the OP. But time will tell. And this American can wait!
Short People got no reason
Short People got no reason
Short People got no reason
To live
Short People got no reason
Short People got no reason
To live
I bet apple will outbid the other automakers to tesla if we get to that point
Thomas Edison
Active Member
Let's have that list of people smarter than Elon Musk. Especially those in the auto industry.
RT
I can't imagine anyone smarter than Elon Musk. He invited the e-mobile, autopilot, he founded many companies, Tesla, Paypal, SolarCity, SpaceX, all with a remarkable success story.
ElecFan
Member
Your post is not about people jumping all over you, but about simple economic reasoning. So let's start.
Why? Bottlenecks are problems to be solved. You don't give any explanation.
Again, why? Americans have waited for the S and X, is there any reason why they would wait this time? Is there any competition even coming close?
Stock will only slide downwards if investors collectively lose trust. Why? There's so much demand for the type of EV's Tesla offers. Is there any reason why investors would think that demand would suddenly fade?
You don't think that they can do 'meaningful production numbers'. Why not? Is there a fundamental reason why upscaling S and X production isn't possible?
Anyone can shout anything. But until you back it up with real analysis, your post is just another shot in the dark. Too bad, because Tesla's is about to do something remarkable which is change the bastion of ICE's that has stopped progress for decades.
This groundbreaking work deserves all of our support.
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Shock-On-T
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Time will tell. My guess would be 5% chance you're right.
People were happy to put their deposits down 18 months ago. I'm sure the American's who did so are plenty patient, even we Australians can wait until 2019 for the right-hand drive models.\
For all his futuristic fantasy, Elon Musk is a hard-headed business man with a proven track record. Tesla is gigantic compared to other auto startups.
People were skeptical they could start producing the Model 3 by the end of this year. Well they are already producing, and the few supplier issues will be gone soon.
They also have a massive charging infrastructure already in place.
Too many differences with other startups.
People were happy to put their deposits down 18 months ago. I'm sure the American's who did so are plenty patient, even we Australians can wait until 2019 for the right-hand drive models.\
For all his futuristic fantasy, Elon Musk is a hard-headed business man with a proven track record. Tesla is gigantic compared to other auto startups.
People were skeptical they could start producing the Model 3 by the end of this year. Well they are already producing, and the few supplier issues will be gone soon.
They also have a massive charging infrastructure already in place.
Too many differences with other startups.
I want to say this right now so the round earth cheerleaders can jump all over me, but a flat earth will be proven in 6 months.
America hates waiting for anything (he says to 400,000 people who've waited 18 months for a car)
America hates waiting for anything (he says to 400,000 people who've waited 18 months for a car)
Since many people keep suggesting Tesla can’t succeed where other US-based startup’s haven’t we should review the major auto startups since ~1945.
Kaiser-
Kaiser-Frazer - Wikipedia
From 1945 start, they bought another company, has sputtered along with little real innovation and eventually spawned AM General and Jeep. Not ever bankrupt despite minimal innovation really delivered.
Bricklin- mostly a car dealers fantasy, never really had a chance. Too little money, decent concept as a ‘safety car’ but poor engineering and poorer performance doomed them.
Bricklin SV-1 - Wikipedia
DeLorean-
Another case of good ideas, innovative engineering too little money poor execution.
DeLorean DMC-12 - Wikipedia
Then there is perhaps the most recent significant startup before Tesla. This one produced its’ first car in 1968. You may have heard of them:
Hyundai Motor Company - Wikipedia
Then there was an earlier one that produces itts’ first car in 1963. You may have heard of them too
Honda - Wikipedia
So. There it is. Hyundai and Honda both worked hard on execution, collaborated with others, and innovated.
( an aside, I iowned a Honda S600 in Thailand in 1967, and stupidly bought shares in the company. I bought a Hyundai Pony in Kuwait in 1977. It was cheaper than using a taxi and ran, but looked better than it ran. The a/c worked.)
The serious bears totally miss the point and forget about Honda and Hyundai, among a half dozen other successful startup car builders from Troller, bought by Ford) to SAAB, that lasted from 1945 until GM bought them and turned them into unsuccessful Malibu clones.
It’s a reasonable position to say building cars is hard. It is ignorant and wrong to say successful new car manufacturing companies are not plausible because nobody has been successful in doing that for the last hundred years. “Ain’t” true!
Of course I left out the most recent demonstrably successful new car builders:
BYD, Chery, SAIC, Dongfeng, FAW, Chang’an and others.
The foolish people among us will say these last few don’t count for various spurious reasons. Some of those same people say most of these examples began with technology from others but...
Tesla is different because they’re doing it all on their own without help from other car builders. Nonsense. The S would never have made it into a mature design without a plethora of Mercedes parts, and many others from Mercedes suppliers.
Does anybody seriously think Panasonic would have been so ready to make commitments had a Toyota not been a Tesla shareholder?
Tesla will continue to survive and thrive. Slow to launch mass quantities of Model 3? Yes, but not a disaster. Just really inconvenient.
Kaiser-
Kaiser-Frazer - Wikipedia
From 1945 start, they bought another company, has sputtered along with little real innovation and eventually spawned AM General and Jeep. Not ever bankrupt despite minimal innovation really delivered.
Bricklin- mostly a car dealers fantasy, never really had a chance. Too little money, decent concept as a ‘safety car’ but poor engineering and poorer performance doomed them.
Bricklin SV-1 - Wikipedia
DeLorean-
Another case of good ideas, innovative engineering too little money poor execution.
DeLorean DMC-12 - Wikipedia
Then there is perhaps the most recent significant startup before Tesla. This one produced its’ first car in 1968. You may have heard of them:
Hyundai Motor Company - Wikipedia
Then there was an earlier one that produces itts’ first car in 1963. You may have heard of them too
Honda - Wikipedia
So. There it is. Hyundai and Honda both worked hard on execution, collaborated with others, and innovated.
( an aside, I iowned a Honda S600 in Thailand in 1967, and stupidly bought shares in the company. I bought a Hyundai Pony in Kuwait in 1977. It was cheaper than using a taxi and ran, but looked better than it ran. The a/c worked.)
The serious bears totally miss the point and forget about Honda and Hyundai, among a half dozen other successful startup car builders from Troller, bought by Ford) to SAAB, that lasted from 1945 until GM bought them and turned them into unsuccessful Malibu clones.
It’s a reasonable position to say building cars is hard. It is ignorant and wrong to say successful new car manufacturing companies are not plausible because nobody has been successful in doing that for the last hundred years. “Ain’t” true!
Of course I left out the most recent demonstrably successful new car builders:
BYD, Chery, SAIC, Dongfeng, FAW, Chang’an and others.
The foolish people among us will say these last few don’t count for various spurious reasons. Some of those same people say most of these examples began with technology from others but...
Tesla is different because they’re doing it all on their own without help from other car builders. Nonsense. The S would never have made it into a mature design without a plethora of Mercedes parts, and many others from Mercedes suppliers.
Does anybody seriously think Panasonic would have been so ready to make commitments had a Toyota not been a Tesla shareholder?
Tesla will continue to survive and thrive. Slow to launch mass quantities of Model 3? Yes, but not a disaster. Just really inconvenient.
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LMichel
Member
As someone from the future...
Tesla merges with Audi when Elon "walks away" from the company in 2022. The model 3 is somewhat of a collector car now - in the same sense that the Edsel is.. Kind of an oddity. Production of the X stops around late 2020. It also becomes a collector car, but much more sought after. MS prices are slashed in 2019 to levels that supersede the demand for a Model 3.
Don't even get me started on what happens to SpaceX...
Suffice it to say; Elon becomes more of household name than Steve Jobs though.
Tesla merges with Audi when Elon "walks away" from the company in 2022. The model 3 is somewhat of a collector car now - in the same sense that the Edsel is.. Kind of an oddity. Production of the X stops around late 2020. It also becomes a collector car, but much more sought after. MS prices are slashed in 2019 to levels that supersede the demand for a Model 3.
Don't even get me started on what happens to SpaceX...
Suffice it to say; Elon becomes more of household name than Steve Jobs though.
Fisker was a cutting edge startup? Haha.
Anyway, your argument doesn't make much sense. First, Tesla doesn't need the Model 3 reservations - they will sell every Model 3 they are able to produce, regardless of whether there are 500,000 reservations or 1,000 reservations.
Second, Tesla doesn't need a high share price. A high share price is good for avoiding dilution at cap raises, but it doesn't seem obvious that Tesla will *need* to do more cap raises. They can adjust investments into growth in accordance with their free cash flow. A high share price is also protection against hostile takeovers, but Musk&co seems to have sufficient control for that to be unlikely anyway.
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