1.1.2 Demand outcomes
In Q1 2024, NEM operational demand averaged 21,552 MW, the highest Q1 average since 2020, and a 1.7% increase from Q1 2023. Underlying demand increased by 679 MW (+2.8%) to reach a record Q1 average of 24,822 MW. This uptick was partially offset by the rise in distributed PV output, which averaged 3,270 MW this quarter, a 10% increase on Q1 2023, and the second highest quarterly average after 2023 Q4.
The increase in operational demand was evident across nearly all hours, particularly outside daytime hours. Queensland accounted for most of the increase, with a rise of 403 MW (+6.2%) to reach its second highest quarterly average at 6,917 MW. New South Wales’s operational demand averaged 7,658 MW, up by 62 MW (+0.8%) from the previous Q1, while South Australia averaged 1,269 MW, a 24 MW (+2.0%) increase. Victoria and Tasmania experienced reductions of 98 MW (-2.1%) and 21 MW (-1.9%) respectively. Notably, Victoria’s average of 4,600 MW was a record low for Q1.
Underlying demand growth during summer period
Underlying demand surged in Queensland and New South Wales due to heightened cooling requirements, resulting in respective increases of 428 MW (+5.8%) and 162 MW (+1.9%). Queensland’s average underlying demand of 7,848 MW was its highest level recorded for any quarter. Demand growth was particularly evident during the summer months (November to February), with December 2023 and January 2024 witnessing significant year-on-year increases of 16% and 12% respectively in Queensland, and 10% and 5% respectively in New South Wales. The pace slowed in February before a decline in March, with New South Wales’ and Queensland’s monthly averages decreasing by 181 MW (-2.1%) and 93 MW (-1.2%) respectively.