i’m thinking anywhere between -180+50mm...
which is a great quarter considering history and current circumstances
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
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- elon is an ass
i’m thinking anywhere between -180+50mm...
which is a great quarter considering history and current circumstances
Is that $100M gaap loss including or excluding FCA credits from Europe?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm including 200M total credits. I don't think FCA can get out of the contract because of Covid.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
102k+ production brings cumulative total to 1022k. That's 22k in the final 22 days. Fremont ran for two weeks after 1m. That's enough for 16-17k cars, though the last few days may have not been at full speed. I'd guess 15k Fremont and 7k GF3.
Making only 15k S/X and ~73k 3/Y (80k/quarter pace) in Fremont won't be good for fixed cost or labor absorption. I don't think that's a killer, though. Losing volume price breaks on parts might hurt more. I expect they'll move a bunch of other costs into Q1 while they're at it, since they can just blame the virus.
Making only 15k S/X and ~73k 3/Y (80k/quarter pace) in Fremont won't be good for fixed cost or labor absorption. I don't think that's a killer, though. Losing volume price breaks on parts might hurt more. I expect they'll move a bunch of other costs into Q1 while they're at it, since they can just blame the virus.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Question is - does Tesla care about getting into S&P 500. If they can move those costs to after Q2, it might be worthwhile waiting. They have $248M profit from Q3 & Q4 - so max that would be the max they want to incur in losses in Q1. That way any profit in Q2 will get them to S&P 500.
88,400 deliveries is great! I was off by more than 5K but I'm glad they achieved a much higher number than most people expected. In my survey here, 45 out of 58 participants (78%) were expecting a lower number.
Here are some of my other estimates for Q1 2020:
- My delivery estimate was off by 5,300 units (83,100 estimated vs 88,400 actual)
- My production estimate was off by 272 units (102,400 estimated vs 102,672 actual)
Here are some of my other estimates for Q1 2020:
- Production in Shanghai: 15,894 units
- Deliveries in China: 14,858 units (Q4 2019 was 13,003 units)
- Model Y deliveries: 1,800 units
What do you think is the minimum # of cars Tesla would need to deliver in Q2 to have a chance at being profitable for that quarter?
What numbers are people getting? I just put the P&D into my model, and it's spewing out a small GAAP loss, but decent non-GAAP profit:
Diluted GAAP EPS: -$0.43
Diluted Non-GAAP EPS: $1.13
Will post the full model some time in the next week or two, after I've given it some more thought.
Diluted GAAP EPS: -$0.43
Diluted Non-GAAP EPS: $1.13
Will post the full model some time in the next week or two, after I've given it some more thought.
These are exceptional times and the foreign exchange impact to Q1 numbers strikes me as the biggest uncertainty. We also don’t know the terms of the fiat deal so quite a bit of uncertainty there in the actual mechanics in the face of falling fiat sales. While in the absence of the macro trends I don’t doubt Tesla would be crushing this financial report. I really don’t know what to expect now.
I am not convinced the P+D numbers tell a good story. Don’t get me wrong the story is better than it could have been, so if that’s your bar then everything is great. But to me it just says that deliveries were able to stay somewhat on track. These sales were mostly earned pre-corona. Sales rate in Q2 and beyond we are in the dark on. If they are bad in Q2 we won’t know because with the factory shutdown there is no reason to pull demand levers. This is a spot to tread carefully I think. Potential for big price swings.
I am not convinced the P+D numbers tell a good story. Don’t get me wrong the story is better than it could have been, so if that’s your bar then everything is great. But to me it just says that deliveries were able to stay somewhat on track. These sales were mostly earned pre-corona. Sales rate in Q2 and beyond we are in the dark on. If they are bad in Q2 we won’t know because with the factory shutdown there is no reason to pull demand levers. This is a spot to tread carefully I think. Potential for big price swings.
What I am hoping for this year is :- I want to see at the end of the year is cash position = $8b - capex.
I expect there might be a significant capex and an operating loss Q2, so on paper it looks bad, and those betting against Tesla may dive right in.
IMO they are walking right into a trap... I expect Q3 and Q4 to be much better and if capex is spent it will be for a reason and it will lift revenue from Q2 ownards. Fortune favours the brave.
Q1 is a good result all things considered, Tesla isn't immune to CV19, it is a very challenging time for most companies.
In the long run, relative performance, growth, revenue and long term profits will count.
IMO this is simply revisiting an earlier era via a different route, yes it is challenging, and it does require smart and at times brave decision making.
XHabjab
TSLA Bull
Inclusion in S&P500 and the required profitability would kill off the "perpetual loss" mantra coming from J Chanos and M Spiegel. I hate to give them that much importance in the life of TSLA but the fact is they are heavyweights in the investing (okay okay bear) world.
[Edit] It might be worth the S&P500 effort just to shut them up for 15 minutes...
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I added a scoreboard to my Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey. I thought it would be a good idea to find out people who are consistently good at estimating deliveries. Feedback is welcome.
Current top 3:
Current top 3:
- VBRaj (@grajeevtvm)
- @chadhuber
- Doggydogworld
EVNow
Well-Known Member
With 19% auto non-lease margin, ~100k deliveries will get to profit. Assuming 200M regulatory credits and ~100M profit by recognizing FSD revenue.
will be interesting to see if it can hold up above 500 today. or if it sustains or runs
we lost 10m jobs so far, probably more in reality. will we lose 20 more, 10 more? over the next two months as this (state imposed limits) spreads/saturates the rest of country
and if so, how many of those jobs, or reduced family income..impact tesla demand/sales. one can say most of the jobs are lost by people who aren’t buying a tesla. let’s not forget tesla is tiny fraction of all auto sales, new/used
if this goes on through july, say...
they aspired to sell 500k cars this year, what if they sold 300k?
q1 - 88k
q2 - 50k
q3 - 60k
q4 - 102k
to me, that ‘seems’ priced in, compared to the stock being at 700-900 although we know it doesn’t work that way
also consider the battery improvements and what they may manifest into
besides paint, that was THE bottleneck. the same amt of batteries go a longer way, which may provide more insulation financially from a shock to the sales pipeline.
if they remain flat YoY that’s a huge victory in the face of this. if they go down 16% (300k instead of 360k) that may end up being inline with other autos.
we lost 10m jobs so far, probably more in reality. will we lose 20 more, 10 more? over the next two months as this (state imposed limits) spreads/saturates the rest of country
and if so, how many of those jobs, or reduced family income..impact tesla demand/sales. one can say most of the jobs are lost by people who aren’t buying a tesla. let’s not forget tesla is tiny fraction of all auto sales, new/used
if this goes on through july, say...
they aspired to sell 500k cars this year, what if they sold 300k?
q1 - 88k
q2 - 50k
q3 - 60k
q4 - 102k
to me, that ‘seems’ priced in, compared to the stock being at 700-900 although we know it doesn’t work that way
also consider the battery improvements and what they may manifest into
besides paint, that was THE bottleneck. the same amt of batteries go a longer way, which may provide more insulation financially from a shock to the sales pipeline.
if they remain flat YoY that’s a huge victory in the face of this. if they go down 16% (300k instead of 360k) that may end up being inline with other autos.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
From what we've been seeing from Musk and other - the broader market expects bad Q2 - but "back to normal" rest of the year. Atleast production-wise. But most of the experts say we can't rule out second wave after reopening nor a comeback in fall. So, we may get something like
q1 - 88k
q2 - 75k
q3 - 90k
q4 - 75k
Assuming 3k/wk cars made in GF3. OTOH, if we see a second wave that affects GF3, we'll see lower numbers.
q2 - 75k
q3 - 90k
q4 - 75k
Assuming 3k/wk cars made in GF3. OTOH, if we see a second wave that affects GF3, we'll see lower numbers.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There are two different aspects to this question and they seem to be getting mixed together. Originally the discussion was around sales and then it switched to how long Fremont/GF1 will be closed which is essentially related to production.
Tesla have just demonstrated that they can make over 100k cars a quarter even when they lose 3 weeks of production. As both average weekly Y production in Fremont and 3 production in GF3 will be higher in Q2 vs Q1 due to ramp up, hitting 100k cars in 10 weeks of production should not be difficult for them.
As Tesla have also demonstrated their ability to deliver vehicles to customers that have bought them it looks as if sales will most likely be limited by demand, rather than how long Fremont and GF1 are closed unless we approach 6-8 weeks of closure in Q2.
Once we have the Q1 ER we will have a much better idea of:
- the potential length of the closure
- the impact of the FCA agreement on credit income
- how close Q1 was to being profitable
- the likelihood of additional FSD features being released and hence deferred income being recognised in Q2
They only lost 1 week of production in Fremont. (~3 weeks in GF Shanghai.)
