dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Man buys land in low population density area and complains about lack of services! News at 11!
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
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Man buys land in low population density area and complains about lack of services! News at 11!
I have to give kudos to Tesla (and Rivian) for their software. Latest reviews on some Ford and GM EVs like the MachE are brutal, cars bricking themselves during software updates, and software developers know this is a possibility since a screen pops up with towing instructions. Car's nav system goes down and never comes back up, leaving drivers without directions to get anywhere in the middle of a trip, etc.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Combined population of US states Tesla has 0 service centers is roughly 25.4 million people. If you add the large dead spots in states where they've got only 1 or 2 service centers far away from most of the land-area of the state you're approaching double that.
When you're only at 4-5% market share that's fine.... when your goal is 25-30% market share (which Teslas stated goal is though I suppose they could mean mostly outside the US somehow) that's gonna be a heavy lift.
cliff harris
Member
I really want to see Tesla do this. Vans are used more per day than a commuter car, so they do a much better job of reducing emissions. They are also more likely to be bought with costs and efficiency in mind, and Tesla definitely have advantages there.
As an investor, this also helps spread risk. Tesla being active in as many different segments as possible makes them much more stable. Cybetruck and semi are decent steps in that direction. A van would be another.
Also worth mentioning that in Europe, pickups are a tiny, tiny segment, but people who in the USA would have a pickup for work, have a van in Europe. Its a MASSIVE market.
US population 330 million, (240 million licensed drivers)
Say "double that" or 50 million are eliminated
25% of 330 is 83 million
83 million is 29.5% of 280 million (330-50)
Still fits the 25%-30% range.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
You're probably already AT 50 million eliminated if you count people within a state that has -a- service center but large towns still hours away from them (I gave some examples earlier)....
I'd also bet the % of licensed drivers is higher in the states we're talking about than the others... it's pretty easy to live in NYC without a drivers license. Not so much in Kansas or Nebraska.
That said, I mean the Model T was over 60% market share for a little bit at one point, so I guess it's POSSIBLE Tesla reaches its goal of half that while locking out tens of millions of potential buyers.... but I find it hard to believe having at least one service center in any given state wouldn't pay for itself in the long run.... and once they get Semi ramped up wouldn't they NEED at least one or two in all those flyover states anyway?
Which is worse though: no service center, or an overbooked service center?
Agree it would be preferable to have zone coverage, if only to support cross country traveling.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The first one I think.... if there's no SC within hours of you it's highly likely you simply won't buy a Tesla (and as I say I've heard from a number of such people).
If there IS one, but it's overbooked- since I doubt anyone checks THAT before purchase, and since most Teslas rarely need in-person service that's still fine for MOST of the buyers MOST of the time. Buyers who are only buyers because they know an SC in reasonable distance exists. You'll have some annoyed minority who have a long wait, but that still seems better than having no buyers at all.
As I mention it's a 5 week wait at the local Raleigh service center right now to get any appointment, but they sell plenty of Teslas around here because at least it's an option.
And if you get a place that's consistently overbooked that tells Tesla they legit need ANOTHER one in the area (or need to address whatever engineering issue is suddenly flooding service centers I guess...)
This does not include the six open investigations.
Tesla Model 3 Ranked Last In German TUV Reliability Report | Carscoops
Problems with the suspension and brakes resulting from large gaps between services caused almost 15 percent of used Model 3s to fail the inspection
www.carscoops.com
Exclusive-Tesla faces inquiry by Norway’s safety regulator over suspension failures
By Marie Mannes STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Tesla faces an inquiry by Norway's traffic safety regulator into suspension failures in the company's electric cars that could result in a recall, the agency told Reuters. Norwegian Public Roads Administration ...
kfgo.com
Anyway, to tie it back to this thread, all of these investigations could impact as soon as 1Q24 (Norway is supposedly reaching a decision on the S/X suspension failures this week...for which customers reportedly will be charged $14k).
You mean these six, only four of which are active?This does not include the six open investigations.
Tesla Model 3 Ranked Last In German TUV Reliability Report | Carscoops
Problems with the suspension and brakes resulting from large gaps between services caused almost 15 percent of used Model 3s to fail the inspection
Exclusive-Tesla faces inquiry by Norway’s safety regulator over suspension failures
By Marie Mannes STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Tesla faces an inquiry by Norway's traffic safety regulator into suspension failures in the company's electric cars that could result in a recall, the agency told Reuters. Norwegian Public Roads Administration ...
Anyway, to tie it back to this thread, all of these investigations could impact as soon as 1Q24 (Norway is supposedly reaching a decision on the S/X suspension failures this week...for which customers reportedly will be charged $14k).
- SUA which was closed but petitioned to be reopened (...)
- Shift brake interlock from D<->R request (which is not an FMVSS requirement)
- Pedestrian alert: closed
- Phantom braking
- Driver distraction due to passenger playing games, already addressed in OTA update and closed
- Crashes with emergency vehicles (now at engineering assessment level)
Rough estimate based on todays P&D report:
The price to earnings story is not going to be very pretty post earnings, and price to earnings growth is going to be even worse given that trailing twelve month earnings are in a downward negative trend.
Will start to look a little better from Q1 though, which is when we start lapping the year ago collapse in margins following the gigantic early 2023 price cuts, and earnings should start returning to year on year growth, providing there are no large price cuts again, and energy/services profits start contributing more.
Will start to look a little better from Q1 though, which is when we start lapping the year ago collapse in margins following the gigantic early 2023 price cuts, and earnings should start returning to year on year growth, providing there are no large price cuts again, and energy/services profits start contributing more.
The Accountant
Active Member
I totally understand what you are saying and it's an important point.
For me personally, I look at it this way.
There was no P/E prior to 2020 (Tesla had losses) yet 2019 was a great time to get into TSLA.
2024 may be 2019 all over again.
Yeah, but TSLA valuation was a LOT lower in 2019. The sad fact is that once a company starts making earnings, the market expects those earnings to keep on improving.
I saw this play out in real time with a small little biotech microcap I still own. One quarter they posted awesome profits due to a one time progress payment they received and the stock soared. Next quarter, the stock tanked, because earnings were negative again. It was the most predictable earnings reports ever, yet the stock market reacted on the earnings release news as if it was bluebird information that no one expected. I swear, you have to somehow put your mind into a state of being a brain dead idiot to be able to time the market.
Yes, I agree it could actually be a good entry opportunity considering it should be the nadir in terms of earnings shrinkage before it reverses higher going forward.
Also intrigued that Elon says he is going to have some sort of Tesla specific update on X following 10-k release.
The Accountant
Active Member
Weird time. We may see disappointing financials (relatively) in 2024 but I have never been more excited about Tesla than I am now.
Likewise. I still have some reservations about the future of the company, such as how it deals with the more stringent requirements of the IRA credits, how it scales the Cybertruck production, and whether another company will win the self-driving race, but it is winning the EV race quite comfortably. Waiting for the stock to dip below $200 after earnings to buy more.
It will deal with them faster and more efficiently than any other company.
Based on walkthroughs, they have all the pieces in place for at least 125K run rate. I suspect their limiting factor right now has more to do with monitoring and fixing any systematic field issues as they crop up. ie. they don't want to ramp really quickly even if manufacturing ramp would allow them to.
If Tesla can't figure out FSD, then no one else will either. No one else is even close.
Well, that didn't take long. Mobileye stock is down 22% or so today based on weak revenue forecast for 1Q24. Basically, their customers stockpiled their chips and aren't going to buy much in 1Q24. Perils of not being an integrated company I guess. Anyways, with a pretty big expected 1Q24 loss, Mobileye isn't exactly going to be going to town to solve FSD.
Not sure if this has been discussed on another thread but the UK introduced ZEV credits on 1 January this year. From what I have read it is a fairly straightforward scheme which starts with an annual threshold target that 22% of the vehicles sold by a company must be ZEV. For every vehicle below that level there is a 'fine' of £15k unless the company has purchased a credit from another company.
Interestingly the projected market share for ZEV in the UK in 2024 is 23% so the ZEV credits target and the projected market share are broadly in line. If this is the case then Tesla should be able to sell pretty well all of their credits in 2024. Assuming that Tesla UK sales in 2024 are 50k vehicles then:
The annual threshold increases over time, rising to 80% in 2030 (2035 is the target date for all new vehicles sold in the UK to be ZEV).
This is my understanding of how it will work - if there is anyone in the UK that has more info please let us know.
Interestingly the projected market share for ZEV in the UK in 2024 is 23% so the ZEV credits target and the projected market share are broadly in line. If this is the case then Tesla should be able to sell pretty well all of their credits in 2024. Assuming that Tesla UK sales in 2024 are 50k vehicles then:
- number of ZEV credits would be 50k * 78% = 39k
- assuming Tesla sells the credit to another company for 50% of the 'fine' that would be 39 * 7.5 = £292M/year
The annual threshold increases over time, rising to 80% in 2030 (2035 is the target date for all new vehicles sold in the UK to be ZEV).
This is my understanding of how it will work - if there is anyone in the UK that has more info please let us know.
