Near-future quarterly financial projections

[UkNorthampton]

Not sure if this has been discussed on another thread but the UK introduced ZEV credits on 1 January this year. From what I have read it is a fairly straightforward scheme which starts with an annual threshold target that 22% of the vehicles sold by a company must be ZEV. For every vehicle below that level there is a 'fine' of £15k unless the company has purchased a credit from another company.

Interestingly the projected market share for ZEV in the UK in 2024 is 23% so the ZEV credits target and the projected market share are broadly in line. If this is the case then Tesla should be able to sell pretty well all of their credits in 2024. Assuming that Tesla UK sales in 2024 are 50k vehicles then:

• number of ZEV credits would be 50k * 78% = 39k
• assuming Tesla sells the credit to another company for 50% of the 'fine' that would be 39 * 7.5 = £292M/year

I have not seen any info on when the credits will be distributed and the potential 'fines' levied so it is not clear to me when the benefit from these credits will start to appear in the quarterly results.

The annual threshold increases over time, rising to 80% in 2030 (2035 is the target date for all new vehicles sold in the UK to be ZEV).

This is my understanding of how it will work - if there is anyone in the UK that has more info please let us know.

I didn't read anything about credits. Just exceptions for small brands, Toyota etc lobbying against, vw & tesla for, and £15,000 fines.

Edit: this supports your statement but hasn't been widely reported (probably as its pro tesla), Which brands are in best shape as ZEV mandate comes into effect? | Autocar

"Every car sold above the 22% will attract a £15,000 fine, unless a car maker defers the sales to a future year. Complying can mean buying credits from other car makers with credits in hand – Tesla, Polestar and MG."

Eventually, free money for tesla (hopefully from Toyota)

 

[AudubonB]

Surely that’s 22% below, not above?

On edit -

Far better in the logic department would be “…on every non-ZEV car sold above the 78% limit…”

 

[UkNorthampton]

Surely that’s 22% below, not above?

On edit -

Far better in the logic department would be “…on every non-ZEV car sold above the 78% limit…”

Are you criticising a quote from professional car journalists?

Best not go down that route, you'll spend many hours on that task!

Next you'll be judging them on truthfulness, numeracy of all kinds and integrity.

Yeah, on rereading the quote, it's just awful.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Wishing Rob Maurer all the best in his new venture but very sad that Tesla Daily has come to an end. I will miss his well researched and balanced reporting.

 

[Enadler]

Now that Rob Mauer from Tesla Daily has retired. Where are you getting good Tesla analysis?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Now that Rob Mauer from Tesla Daily has retired. Where are you getting good Tesla analysis?

Electrified - Dillon Loomis probably closest in content and even-handedness.

DillonLoomis | Twitter, Instagram | Linktree

For business + sponsorship inquiries reach out to [email protected]

linktr.ee

 

[Enadler]

Electrified - Dillon Loomis probably closest in content and even-handedness.

DillonLoomis | Twitter, Instagram | Linktree

For business + sponsorship inquiries reach out to [email protected]

linktr.ee

Thanks

 

[Doggydogworld]

Electrified - Dillon Loomis probably closest in content and even-handedness.

Does he relay China production numbers? Rob was my go-to source for that.

 

[Thekiwi]

Does he relay China production numbers? Rob was my go-to source for that.

Just follow https://x.com/serobinsonjr?s=21&t=iMWbXqIqzxIjFCXCXxCHRA

He does an exhaustive daily post with every piece of Tesla news you can find.

 

[Chenkers]

Does he relay China production numbers? Rob was my go-to source for that.

Yes he does. For example in yesterdays video he spent over a minute going through the latest China numbers and he maintains his own spreadsheets of weekly insurance numbers and production/exports.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760884549179895960

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760884549179895960

Almost like slashing prices and margin far more than you've decreased costs hurts earnings or something!

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Yes he does. For example in yesterdays video he spent over a minute going through the latest China numbers and he maintains his own spreadsheets of weekly insurance numbers and production/exports.

Has he given the MIC January production figures? Haven't seen this on either TSLA CHAN or Daas Auto yet.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Has he given the MIC January production figures? Haven't seen this on either TSLA CHAN or Daas Auto yet.

Roland Pircher and TSLA Chan posted the following MIC production figures for January on X:

Model Y: 50,554
Model 3: 32,010
Total: 82,564

Given that Tesla announced there would be a 1 week stoppage on the Model Y lines for production line updates these appear to be pretty good figures.

 

[Thekiwi]

Roland Pircher and TSLA Chan posted the following MIC production figures for January on X:

Model Y: 50,554
Model 3: 32,010
Total: 82,564

Given that Tesla announced there would be a 1 week stoppage on the Model Y lines for production line updates these appear to be pretty good figures.

Didn’t the line stoppages occur in Feb though? During lunar new year shutdown?

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Didn’t the line stoppages occur in Feb though? During lunar new year shutdown?

Unfortunately I did not keep the reference to the source so cannot go back and check but I believe the two are distinct as I remember wondering why they were not using the new year holiday for the updates. Sorry I can't provide a more definitive response

If there was no stoppage in January then the MY production was running around 20% lower than their usual weekly rate (throughout the month). It is the lowest MY monthly production since September 23 (48k) when there was a week shutdown for line updates.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764367073285644681

 

[DarkandStormy]

If Gary Black and others are correct that 1Q24 deliveries will come in at or below 430k range, my quick initial estimate is:.

-total revs ~$23bn
-gross profit ~$4bn
-GAPP earnings ~$1.6bn
-Non-GAAP EPS ~$.60

These are just rough estimates, plenty of tweaking to come. Looks as though almost every major metric would be down YoY from 1Q23 if the current circulating rumors are true about deliveries. WS consensus, of course, is much higher at >470k last I looked.

EDIT - just looked at average estimates for this quarter:
-$23bn total revs
-Non-GAAP EPS $.60
(I swear I didn't look before I posted lol)

I'm sure someone with access to more detailed estimates can pull together the averages on other metrics.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Unfortunately, based on recent data coming in, I've lowered my EPS estimate to $0.53.

 

[mongo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771994457665122804

They appear to be making the assumption that fixed costs increase linearly with volume.
$0.007 EPS per 5,000 cars assumes $4,872 marginal profit per car, which is gross profit in this case (constant OpEx). At 20% GM, that would equate to only $24,360 ASP. Or 12% variable margin at $40k ASP.