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Many Chinese cities are densely populated and suffer from formidable congestion. In some cities, new car buyers must wait a year or more before they can register it if it is a car with a gasoline or diesel engine. Electric cars are granted registrations immediately, but the supply of electric cars — while growing rapidly — falls far short of total demand.
Neorden - Are you short term bullish or bearish on the stock?
If I take the high case (17+70k delivery) - but 20% margin I end up with -0.46 non-GAAP EPS. Very close to the Yahoo avg.Here is my very rough estimate for Q2. Avg Yahoo (non-GAAP) EPS estimate is -0.44 and revenue est is $6.22B. This corresponds to my high estimate below.
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25k S+X, 85k Model 3 gets close to GAAP breakeven on 20% margin. To get to non-GAAP breakeven they need S+X to be at 25k and Model 3 at 65k.Hence, 2 necessary conditions 1. Increase s and x deliveries
2. Panasonic 2170 production increases substantially.
How do you get to any number from Q3/Q4 ?
Those $32k EVs are more like $16k after subsidies. China is phasing out subsidies and moving to a (ZEV-style) NEV credit system. Shanghai Teslas will qualify, but the initial NEV targets are low so the credits may be worthless for a couple years. Meanwhile, Model Y will ramp not long after Shanghai and I figure Fremont will shift to 7-8k/week for 3 + Y combined. Shanghai will then get Model Y and do an additional 4-5k/week for APAC.What you are now estimating is worldwide demand of 65k (5k/wk) - with lower trims and lower prices. Including in China, where now a $32k EV sells 30k a quarter ! Looks low to me.
IMHO the Model S effect was mostly about growing awareness of Tesla and high performance EVs in general. By 2016 Tesla was well known. Musk has 20m++ Twitter followers. He's on the evening news. The Model 3 reveal was a mass market sensation. Could we still see a "growing awareness" effect. Maybe, but it seems more hope than rational expectation.
I think for a lot of EM twitter followers it is either an aspirational product and they do it just for entertainment. A good check would be to talk to folks who bought 3 recently and ask them about twitter. Anecdotally hardly anyone I talk to got much information from following EM on twitter.IMHO the Model S effect was mostly about growing awareness of Tesla and high performance EVs in general. By 2016 Tesla was well known. Musk has 20m++ Twitter followers. He's on the evening news. The Model 3 reveal was a mass market sensation. Could we still see a "growing awareness" effect. Maybe, but it seems more hope than rational expectation.
It's worth recalling that "profits are fictional, cash flow is real". Tesla seems to be in a position to be cash flow positive apart from inventory buildup, and they have enough cash to finance the necessary inventory-in-transit buildup.
As a result, Musk may simply ignore the stock market for the rest of the year and generate cash.
He said, at the Q1 loss rate, they would go through the 2.4 billion they just raised in 10 months (and be back to only $2.2 Billion in cash).Musk just say telsa is out of cash in 10 months... makes me a little nervous considering i just bought one.... probably shoulda leased it...
Because big oil and established auto makers conspired extra hard to sabotage Tesla this year.why did Q1 have so many losses?
Many points that can be and have been explained here. Tesla still has only three products in market, with only one with significant scale. So quarterly fluctuations look uglier than they are fundamentally. With model Y they can smooth out this further.why did Q1 have so many losses?
Do these numbers include fca payments?Here is my very rough estimate for Q2. Avg Yahoo (non-GAAP) EPS estimate is -0.44 and revenue est is $6.22B. This corresponds to my high estimate below.
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Musk just say telsa is out of cash in 10 months... makes me a little nervous considering i just bought one.... probably shoulda leased it...