Trip Chowdhry says 30k Model 3s and 18k S/X for 48k total. Apparently Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley also says 48k total deliveries.
I think they're both wrong, and by a lot. Wrong as it's been in the past, the Bloomberg tracker is now showing over 79K Model 3s produced in Q1 (versus 63,150 in Q4 last year). And thanks to Tesla's overseas plan for the quarter (same as for Models S and X), the number of in transit vehicles won't be huge. This is Tesla producing vehicles for overseas the first half (or so) of the quarter, and then switching back to production for the US market. This gives time during the second half of the quarter for the overseas vehicles to reach their happy buyers, which reduces the total in-transit reported at the end of each quarter. Overall, I think Tesla would be better off just smoothing things out, but they'd have to bite that in-transit bullet once to get there, and they seem unwilling (understandable) to do that.
Anyway, there were 8.4K in-transit Model 3s at the end of Q3 (I couldn't find Q4 stats). Tesla itself said another 10K for overseas in transit (Q4 shareholder statement). So, assuming the US in-transit says pretty constant, we're looking at a delta of 10K in transit vehicles. But, with production up 16K compared to last quarter, that's a net available of 6K additional vehicles. My guess is Tesla saw their demand problem in the US and so fixed it by making SR/SR+ available in Q1 instead of Q3, and that worked, which means there won't be another 6K vehicles sitting unsold in inventory.
So, assuming US in-transit is the same, overseas takes away 10K in transit, vehicles in inventory rises a bit due to the end of year push, with 16K more vehicles being made in Q1 versus Q4 I don't see how deliveries in Q1 can be less than Q4 last year. Saying 30K Model 3 deliveries for Q1 is probably wrong by almost double.