Near-future quarterly financial projections

[bkp_duke]

Given that other Chinese EV makers showed moderate to strong m/m growth in Dec delivery and Tesla SH chose to reduce production in Dec despite offering incentives, what do you guys feel CN margin looks like? Did Tesla decide against to more incentives at the cost of CN margin?

Highly doubt it. Margins are probably increasing given:
1) lower input costs (raw materials like Al, Co, Steel have all been decreasing)
2) lower USD (this put pressure on margins in Q3)
3) lower shipping costs (costs to ship pretty much anywhere have CRATERED)


So, I expect margins to be pretty flat (+/- 0.5%)

 

[Todd Burch]

Highly doubt it. Margins are probably increasing given:
1) lower input costs (raw materials like Al, Co, Steel have all been decreasing)
2) lower USD (this put pressure on margins in Q3)
3) lower shipping costs (costs to ship pretty much anywhere have CRATERED)


So, I expect margins to be pretty flat (+/- 0.5%)

Also, increased utilization of both Berlin and Austin due to the ramp.

 

[bkp_duke]

Also, increased utilization of both Berlin and Austin due to the ramp.

Very true. I was only focusing on Shanghai, however, as that was what the previous poster referenced.

 

[The Accountant]

This is what I don't get. There is basically no inventory in the US. It seems EU is very light on inventory too. If China doesn't have any cars for sale until Jan (i.e. no inventory). How do we not hit 450k+ deliveries? If you take conservative production (F:145k + A/B:55k + S:235k = 435k), and have little-to-no inventory, you have to be at 450k deliveries at least right? There were 20k in transit in Q3...

And I agree it's hard to imagine Tesla CN would change the site to say you can't pick up a car until Jan if there were 20-30k sitting around ready for pickup that Tesla would absolutely love to sell in Q4.

You may be on to something.
We know that there were thousands of cars at the Luchao port at year end . . .but this could still be less than the inventory at the end of Q3 which would result in Deliveries exceeding Production (contrary to what Zach told us on the Q3 earnings call).
I am not saying that Deliveries > Production is likely but it is certainly possible.

 

[CorneliusXX]

You may be on to something.
We know that there were thousands of cars at the Luchao port at year end . . .but this could still be less than the inventory at the end of Q3 which would result in Deliveries exceeding Production (contrary to what Zach told us on the Q3 earnings call).
I am not saying that Deliveries > Production is likely but it is certainly possible.

According to Fly Brandenburg there's also a couple of thousand Teslas produced in GigaBerlin parked at a nearby airport. I don't have high hopes for a significant inventory drawdown this quarter. Even just the last minute incentives suggest they were having trouble drawing down as much as they would like.

 

[zach_]

You may be on to something.
We know that there were thousands of cars at the Luchao port at year end . . .but this could still be less than the inventory at the end of Q3 which would result in Deliveries exceeding Production (contrary to what Zach told us on the Q3 earnings call).
I am not saying that Deliveries > Production is likely but it is certainly possible.

Unfortunately Zach also told us they were targeting for > 50% production growth, which I think we can all pretty confidently say is not going to happen. It seems clear plans changed to some degree, for some reason, in China after the Q3 call. So I don't really put a ton of weight to what was said on the call.

 

[damonbrodie]

Unfortunately Zach also told us they were targeting for > 50% production growth, which I think we can all pretty confidently say is not going to happen. It seems clear plans changed to some degree, for some reason, in China after the Q3 call. So I don't really put a ton of weight to what was said on the call.

What he said was:

As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in production this year, although we are tracking supply chain risks which are beyond our control.

So not greater than 50% growth.

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2022.

www.fool.com

 

[zach_]

What he said was:


So not greater than 50% growth.

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2022.

www.fool.com

Okay fair, but that's semantics. My point was that (unless they are going to pull a rabbit out of their hat in fremont) we won't be close to 50% production increase, hence something has clearly changed therefore we shouldn't put much weight to Zach's comments about expecting another inventory build either.

 

[EVNow]

Who got it right ?

Looks like a big inventory build up.

 

[zach_]

Well I was waaaay wrong. Time to play the "find the cars in inventory" game. Do we think there are 30-40k sitting in China?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Wow, 405k is low. I said it made sense to hold back US inventory so they could pocket the 7500 of Bidenbucks themselves this month instead of giving it away via discounts in Q4. But maybe they held back more than I expected. If so most of the additional inventory is in the US and we should see it pop up on the website this week. This morning they show inventory on the coasts, especially in CA where I kept hearing they'd sold off all inventory and even demos and showroom models and maybe even a few Model Y holograms (j/k).

Troy's number for Europe may also be a bit high, unless UK and Germany really blow the doors off. His China number should be close. I think most/all of Q3's ~20k inventory increase was Shanghai cars. I don't think they added too much more to that in Q4.

 

[petit_bateau]

That's Q4 inventory growth of 34,423.
On top of the prior Q3 inventory of 30.144 (i.e. 8-days of sales)

So we are now at ~15d of sales for end Q4 inventory. Last time Tesla was at that level was in Q2 of 2020.

Also, what's with the missing Semi P&D numbers. Were they not produced and delivered ? Are they not vehicles ? Are they perhaps not 'sold' ?

 

[damonbrodie]

That's Q4 inventory growth of 34,423.
On top of the prior Q3 inventory of 30.144 (i.e. 8-days of sales)

So we are now at ~15d of sales for end Q4 inventory. Last time Tesla was at that level was in Q2 of 2020.

Also, what's with the missing Semi P&D numbers. Were they not produced and delivered ? Are they not vehicles ? Are they perhaps not 'sold' ?

Perhaps if they sold 11 semis its not of consequence?

 

[mongo]

That's Q4 inventory growth of 34,423.
On top of the prior Q3 inventory of 30.144 (i.e. 8-days of sales)

So we are now at ~15d of sales for end Q4 inventory. Last time Tesla was at that level was in Q2 of 2020.

Also, what's with the missing Semi P&D numbers. Were they not produced and delivered ? Are they not vehicles ? Are they perhaps not 'sold' ?

12 days of inventory.
Q3 2022: 366k/75*8= 39k
Plus Q4 35k = 74k
Or
2021 ended with 4 @ 306k rate = 16k
Plus 56k for all of 2022 is 72k

Call it 73k
73k/440k*75=12.4 days.
Q3 ended at 8, so 50% increase.

13 days, it's based on delivery rate, not production.

 

[mongo]

Correction: the days is based on deliveries, not production. So it is 13 days of inventory.

Q3: 8/75*344 = 37k cars
Plus 34k = 71k
71k/405k*75=13 days of inventory.

 

[30seconds]

Ok, based on new delivery and production numbers I'm looking at EPS ~ $1.11 for the quarter. Was really hoping for a jump closer to $1.20.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Q3: 8/75*344 = 37k cars

+/- a couple thousand since "8" means somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5.

Cumulative produced but not delivered was 42.7k and end of Q3 and 77k today. It seems a few thousand cars were written off over the years.

I also found the lack of Semi numbers surprising. IMHO they've only delivered a couple to Pepsi. I know some Pepsi dude said they were "employing" 39 trucks (note the tense, which implies an ongoing process that is not yet complete). Pepsi has a history of being a bit over the top.

 

[petit_bateau]

Correction: the days is based on deliveries, not production. So it is 13 days of inventory.

Q3: 8/75*344 = 37k cars
Plus 34k = 71k
71k/405k*75=13 days of inventory.

I've checked my spreadsheet. I am using quarterly sales (i.e. deliveries) and (365/4) so my graph etc should be bang-on, allowing for integer reporting by Tesla

 

[mongo]

I've checked my spreadsheet. I am using quarterly sales (i.e. deliveries) and (365/4) so my graph etc should be bang-on, allowing for integer reporting by Tesla

View attachment 891479

Tesla uses 75 days of delivery a quarter (versus 91. 25), apparently that's the Automotive News definition.

 

[petit_bateau]

Tesla uses 75 days of delivery a quarter (versus 91. 25), apparently that's the Automotive News definition.
View attachment 891483

That's bonkers, but of course it may be true.

How can one get confirmation of this from Tesla ?