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No Plans to take X, S (or 3) above 100kWh

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Everywhere north of the mountains of North Carolina, northern Europe, Korea and northern China and everyone towing are not "niches". I agree with your basic point that many do not need a larger battery, but believe there is a real need and a significant market for larger packs. 100 in the 3, 120 in the S and 150 in the X would be spectacular! If Tesla was in the Midwest, not the Bay Area, there would already be a 120! (The Bay Area is great, by the way)
The portion of the world's population who can afford Tesla's current (obviously very expensive by global standards) vehicles live in Northern climates, because that is where 99% of the world's wealth is concentrated (isn't the supercharger map a wonderful money map of the world when you zoom out. It was even clearer in the beginning, when only California, New York and the Northern tip of Europe was on it. Its already creeping South and East in preparation for Model 3) What I'm saying is that when EV's go mass market, cold climate battery size will become a niche because only 3% of the world's population live North of somewhere London/mid Europe latitude, see this map A Fascinating Chart of the World’s Population by Longitude and Latitude
 
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Aside from cold weather. another reason for bigger batteries: If the mainstream trend here in Southeastern US with ever growing vehicles holds (or spreads?) to the time when EV's become mainstream, this will be a reason for huuuuuge batteries no matter what the climate. The new norm here has quickly become cheaply made SUVs and Pickups the size of small planets. Passenger car sized cars are out.

If this is what people will be accustomed to, one would imagine the future generation Model X needs to be just as big and boxy.
My neighbor just showed me the lifetime mpg of his 2015 Suburban. 12 mpg. Engine compartment mostly empty, but with a front and grille the size of a barn door :) He also told me he just cancelled his Model 3 to buy an even bigger truck. If customers keep demanding that every new car needs to be bigger, taller and boxier then the previous, we will obviously see even higher consumption in the future. Can't imagine the battery size you'd need to power such a huge and brick shaped car...
 
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Of course you need more than a 100 kWh pack. How on earth can you tow anything on a Model X and decent range? It seems like some folks here are forgetting that most of us live in the real and practical world where something Elon said doesn't exactly translate into a winning strategy.
towing is surely a niche market even in the so called real world, but yes very important nevertheless
 
Even in California, there exist beautiful, remote areas that would be easier to visit, without significant detours to charge, with more range than a Model S 100D offers. During winter, that would include some of the less-developed campgrounds in Death Valley and in the Mojave Preserve. Then there's northeast California, north of Reno, NV. Also, I hope to take my family to Great Basin National Park in neighboring Nevada, but charging options are limited. While some of this will be solved by adding Superchargers, such as in Baker, CA adjacent to the Mojave Preserve, it'll be years in the best-case scenario before we see Supercharger coverage along every significant rural route.

I believe that, even at high price points, there is enough of a market for Tesla to justify offering larger battery sizes like 120 kWh or more. All of those so-called niche markets add up. And then there are those who just want the biggest and best, just because.

Any downside to the environment via the production of ever-larger batteries is outweighed by the benefits of getting more ICE vehicles off the roads. It's also the case that as battery density improves, the environmental impact per kWh of capacity tends to drop because fewer raw materials are required per kWh.

Clearly, Tesla can be continually working to improve battery price/performance/density without specifically "planning" larger battery size options for its vehicles. Recall that wk057 (Jason Hughes) discovered the "100" battery size in Tesla's firmware before they announced anything. At that time, Tesla was certainly planning the "100". They haven't gotten to that stage with a 120 or whatever. But they will eventually. It might be a year or two out, or longer.

One more thing - hydrogen proponents like to tout that H2-powered cars can achieve greater zero-emission range than BEVs. I don't think Elon would mind putting that argument to rest!
 
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Aside from cold weather. another reason for bigger batteries: If the mainstream trend here in Southeastern US with ever growing vehicles holds (or spreads?) to the time when EV's become mainstream, this will be a reason for huuuuuge batteries no matter what the climate. The new norm here has quickly become cheaply made SUVs and Pickups the size of small planets. Passenger car sized cars are out.

If this is what people will be accustomed to, one would imagine the future generation Model X needs to be just as big and boxy.
My neighbor just showed me the lifetime mpg of his 2015 Suburban. 12 mpg. Engine compartment mostly empty, but with a front and grille the size of a barn door :) He also told me he just cancelled his Model 3 to buy an even bigger truck. If customers keep demanding that every new car needs to be bigger, taller and boxier then the previous, we will obviously see even higher consumption in the future. Can't imagine the battery size you'd need to power such a huge and brick shaped car...
Your neighbour may want to consider just having the extension surgery done.
The medical costs will be defrayed by the fuel savings over time.
 
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The portion of the world's population who can afford Tesla's current (obviously very expensive by global standards) vehicles live in Northern climates, because that is where 99% of the world's wealth is concentrated (isn't the supercharger map a wonderful money map of the world when you zoom out. It was even clearer in the beginning, when only California, New York and the Northern tip of Europe was on it. Its already creeping South and East in preparation for Model 3) What I'm saying is that when EV's go mass market, cold climate battery size will become a niche because only 3% of the world's population live North of somewhere London/mid Europe latitude, see this map A Fascinating Chart of the World’s Population by Longitude and Latitude
That line applies only to Europe and the UK. There are Palms on the coast of Scotland, on the Isle of Man, etc. In the US, that line is in the southern part of the North Carolina coast, hundreds of miles south of your line. US weather has large temperature swings. (Example: Chicago can swing from 15 degrees below zero Fahrenheit in winter and 98 above in summer. ) Europe is very moderate. Also, it is the market not the population which must be considered. A large percentage would prefer a larger battery.
 
A large percentage would prefer a larger battery.

Preference is often not what people buy.
I bet pretty much all Germans who buy 5-series BMW, would prefer M550xi instead of 520d. But price (direct and indirect)
changes what people buy. I bet many would buy Yellow or Red BMW instead of silver or black.
And here often price is not even an obstacle.

There are many many reasons why our preferences do not match our final choices.


In the end, Tesla can make 200kWh Model S/X though it will be slower than 100kWh. Pretty much all parameters go worse,
except range.
 
I wrote many lines about how range reduction due to cold can be reduced to "minor" and you just flushed it with your ignorance. It almost feels like you didn't read my post you quoted.

Tesla can DEFINITELY reach Nissan's level. 120km in summer (+20C), 100km in winter (-10C).

1) You wrote about what Tesla "could" do, (such as heating headrests, etc...), not what they have done. My point stands that the range reduction I stated is a current reality today.

B) Your approach boils down to "heat the surfaces, not the cabin interior". Elon wants to build a no-compromises EV... making folks drive in a meat locker with warm headrests is a compromise I suspect he won't stand for... I know my wife wasn't happy about it when I had to do it once.

III) Do you have a Tesla? I can tell you that in below-freezing weather even without the use of the cabin heater I can lose a 1/3rd of my range due to the pack heater. This is even with range mode on. And I don't live in a very cold climate.

I'll chalk up your charge of "ignorance" to language barrier issues rather than an attempt to be insulting, But just because you didn't get a response to your post that you hoped for doesn't render the other party "ignorant".
 
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I have an EV that is way less advanced. Though acts sufficiently in winter. Down to -18C it's fine.

Instead of demanding "I want more kWh battery" one should actually "demand" what one actually wants.
Less range loss in winter.

More kWh is like "my car is so slow, i need more cylinders" - appropriate for 55 yo hilly-billy.

My approach is "do not waste lots of power on heating lots of air. Reduce the amount of air, not the temperature".
 
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Well... lots of varied opinions in this thread. Clearly, range is still a big issue and there are two primary reasons why range is a big issue. Speed of charging and lack of charging infrastructure.

Some baseline first...

A 2017 Audi Q7 has a 26 gallon fuel tank and combined MPG rating of 21. That's a 540 mile range. And it can be refueled at the roughly 168,000 gas stations in the U.S. in about 5 minutes, or 6,500 miles per hour.

A Model X 100D has a 295 miles EPA range. 80% of that is 236 miles, which takes 52 minutes, or 272 miles per hour. Cadence is then roughly 3.5 hours of driving, 50 minutes of charging assuming one hits EPA rated efficiency. Using the Supercharger network, it's more like 2 hours of driving, 30 minutes of charging assuming optimal spacing of the charging points.

Now, both get hit by efficiency losses with weather (cold, hot, wind, etc.), terrain, and weight. But the Model X "feels" it more because it starts at a far more limited range and recharging. In the winter, combined with slower speed, it becomes more like 2.25 hours of driving, and 40-45 minutes of charging.

Now, going to 2170 form factor cells with zero change in cell chemistry nets a very slight increase in specific energy (Wh/kg). That's because while the cells contain more battery material, the outer dimensions of the cells are also correspondingly bigger. The form factor change by itself is more about cost savings than increased capacity. Therefore, the move to 2170 cells alone does not present a significant increase in capacity of the pack. Nor does it charge faster, or have higher discharge capability just based on the form factor change. The pack architecture was recently revised to make the 100 kWh packs in the first place. Therefore, we can't assume any bumps in capacity based on moving to the 2170's on form factor alone, but we can expect a drop in price using Gigafactory production of 2170 cells. Since the cost of of a 100 kWh pack is roughly $19,000 to Tesla, roughly $24,000 to consumers, a big drop in pack production costs.. say, roughly 25% could mean the pack dropping to $15,000 cost to Tesla, and they might pass along a savings of $4,000 to 5,000 to buyers. Or they may chose to just pocket that as increased margin, or re-draw the mix of features it's hard to see it straight up.

But we do expect, from earlier commentary by JB Straubel and Elon Musk that the Model 3 2170 cells will have a revised cell chemistry. There was only one major revision of cell chemistry since the Rev B Model S packs that I know of... the 90 kWh packs with silicon added to the anode. Likely they've been tweaking the chemistry since, but the specific energy has remained roughly the same. That last change increased specific energy of the cells by about 8%. The revised 100 kWh pack architecture also bumped specific energy at the pack level by ~5%.

What can we expect from the new cells? Well, we really don't know. The various battery cell characteristics... cycle life, specific energy, volumetric energy density, power energy density, c-rate charging, c-rate discharging, and cost are all in competition with each other. Make gains in one area often results losses in other areas. Increase the specific energy, given a particular cycle life, typically means lower tolerance for charging c-rate. There are cells, like the ones in the Chevy Volt pack with comparably terrible specific energy, but can tolerate far higher c-rates for the same cycle life. It also therefore has much higher power energy density. Clearly the characteristics are balanced for a PHEV. For Tesla, their packs are all optimized for cost and specific energy at the expense of the rest. That's ok because of the tremendous size of the packs and the amount of space available in the chassis devoted to the battery.

As a result, with newer cell chemistries, Tesla might be able to choose to a different mix of characteristics. Say, choosing a cell chemistry that tolerates higher charging c-rates as opposed to increasing specific energy. Let's say that Tesla chooses a cell chemistry that can tolerate 1.5C for extended periods of time. We haven't seen that rate with the newer Si in the anode cell chemistries from Tesla/Panasonic. That's charging at ~140 kW average (400 amps at voltage range of 340 to 370 volts). The Model X 100D right now only charges at 0.95 C for the first 80% with a peak of 1.17C. It would cut the charging time down to 35 minutes for 80%, or achieve 400 mph charging. The typical Supercharger use case would then be 2 hours of driving, 20 minutes of charging. For some people, this is the right choice when combined with additional charging infrastructure. On the other hand, increasing specific energy by another 8% would mean a 106 kWh pack, probably marketed as a 110. The actual increase would be 98 kWh to 106 kWh. Assuming nothing else changes, that's an additional 8% in capacity which directly corresponds to range, which then increases to 318 miles.

Of course, a blend is possible. Increase charging c-rate somewhat, increase specific energy somewhat while lowering cost. Of course, pushing one characteristic impacts the others, so one has to choose the balance. We're looking at either an increase of 23 miles of range, or dropping the typical Supercharging best case time from 30 minutes to under 20 minutes, or winter charging from 40-45 minutes to 25 to 30 minutes.

Over time, likely increase charging c-rates is more important than more specific energy once a certain range is achieved. That's because the charging infrastructure will also get much better. If destination charging was more readily available, there's less pressure on the fast charging networks. And the highest cost overall is putting more battery capacity into the pack, then DC fast charging, then destination charging. The cheapest way to solve the range issues is to have lots more destination charging, but of course that assumes your daily use case is otherwise covered. In fleet terms, adding in 8 kWh per vehicle, for 100,000 vehicles is $128 million dollars in higher cost to Tesla. That's half the entire book price of the existing global Supercharger network as it stands today.

Given Musk's comments, I think their choice for the next step is to increase charging c-rate, drop cost, drop weight, but keep roughly the same pack size. Dropping weight alone will increase range. I'd also like to see higher regenerative braking level... hitting 70 kW and more often, which I think is another way to achieve higher range.
 
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I have an EV that is way less advanced. Though acts sufficiently in winter. Down to -18C it's fine.

Instead of demanding "I want more kWh battery" one should actually "demand" what one actually wants.
Less range loss in winter.

More kWh is like "my car is so slow, i need more cylinders" - appropriate for 55 yo hilly-billy.

My approach is "do not waste lots of power on heating lots of air. Reduce the amount of air, not the temperature".

I've explained to you how pack heating alone, and not cabin heat, can reduce range by 1/3rd or more.

What's more I've also explained that other factors (speed, roof cargo boxes, towing) also significantly impact range.

None of those problems are solved by heating less cabin air. They are, however, by a larger battery.

To paraphrase my favorite Estonian:
I wrote many lines about how range reduction can be due to several factors and you just flushed it although I won't insult you by claiming ignorance. It almost feels like you didn't read my post you quoted.

As this is the second time, I'm not going to give you the benefit of the doubt this time. You can take your comparison to a hill-billy and stick it in the personal orifice of your choice.
 
All of this chatter assumes everyone drives really long distances. That's a flawed assumption for the United States:

http://www.travelbehavior.us/Nancy--ppt/Long Distance Travel in the US - PPT.pdf

Yes, it's a rather old study. I doubt people have suddenly changed. One of the big takeaways from this old data is that more than half of people never take a long trip. And when people do take a long trip, more than half of the trips over 750 miles are by air. Even with the current 100 in terrible weather that's a four charging trip stop.

So yes, we'll need bigger batteries to get absolutely every usage case covered. That's a given. In the meanwhile there are hundreds of millions of people who can do everything with the battery sizes we currently have, possibly with an occasional in-trip charging stop. To me it appears that the much bigger barrier is effortless charging for apartment and condo dwellers, perhaps by adding much more workplace destination charging. Leaving with a full battery almost every time makes so much less of this an issue.
 
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All of this chatter assumes everyone drives really long distances. That's a flawed assumption for the United States:

http://www.travelbehavior.us/Nancy--ppt/Long Distance Travel in the US - PPT.pdf

Yes, it's a rather old study. I doubt people have suddenly changed. One of the big takeaways from this old data is that more than half of people never take a long trip. And when people do take a long trip, more than half of the trips over 750 miles are by air. Even with the current 100 in terrible weather that's a four charging trip stop.

So yes, we'll need bigger batteries to get absolutely every usage case covered. That's a given. In the meanwhile there are hundreds of millions of people who can do everything with the battery sizes we currently have, possibly with an occasional in-trip charging stop. To me it appears that the much bigger barrier is effortless charging for apartment and condo dwellers, perhaps by adding much more workplace destination charging. Leaving with a full battery almost every time makes so much less of this an issue.

I think people have to keep in perspective what "long" means.

Driving to and from Grandma's 90 miles away for dinner in December can be iffy if she doesn't happen to have a 14-50 handy or happen to live along a major route with a supercharger along the way.
 
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If Grandma lives 90 miles away your 100% charged 100D has to get what, 550 Wh/mile? So Grandma lives in North Dakota and you leave with a stone cold pack, and she doesn't have an ordinary wall outlet to keep the pack warm, yes, that trip would be iffy.

Of course you can find scenarios that the current packs don't do. We all seem to agree on that. The disagreement is over how important it is to the growth of EV deliveries. My stance is that it needs to be solved eventually, but not now. Eventually it will be a no-brainer to sell that 200 kWh configuration. It makes absolutely no sense now. Some people will be left out because of this. These people are still important and will still be part of the long-term picture.
 
...All of this chatter assumes everyone drives really long distances. That's a flawed assumption for the United States:...

It's just like pointing out that most people who buy insurance, extended warranty, lottery... don't get what they paid for (not every house is on fire, not most of the cars on freeway are disabled because of collisions...)

It's like convincing pick up truck owners that they don't use theirs to haul furniture every day but the sales fact is: It is more popular than sedans.
 
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I've explained to you how pack heating alone, and not cabin heat, can reduce range by 1/3rd or more.

What's more I've also explained that other factors (speed, roof cargo boxes, towing) also significantly impact range.

None of those problems are solved by heating less cabin air. They are, however, by a larger battery.
Cargo box on the roof is as rare as Tesla X on the streets of Central Europe. Random reason/excuse to complain.
Cargo box is even more rare on a vehicle that has as much luggage space as Model S/X.
Your 200kWh battery with 550 miles of range will suddenly have 250 miles of range if it's cold outside and how about
understanding the meaning of preconditioning the vehicle. Add two washing machines on the roof and
we are down to 150 miles. Well, that is not enough for granny trip 90 miles each way. Better take a truck.

I would also describe my favorite American lifestyle:
I better buy pickup truck with 3 seats inside and a big bed behind to do that one special trip each year and then suffer
for the whole year, every day, every minute of my driving. And I would rather pay 8000$ extra to make that special trip.
I will keep my vehicle for 4 years, that's 2000$ per trip. Seems reasonable. I can definitely earn 2000$ per 2 workhours.
I would rather work for 2 extra hours each year than wait at SC for 2 hours each year.
There is only one catch in that story. There is no annual trip to granny. There is no spoon.

Did you know:
Multiplication of cylinders and towing capacity defines the dimensions of owner's penis, inverted.
As does EV owner's battery capacity multiplied with 0-60 raw data.
This is why males have tendency to prefer exaggerated values and females do not.
 
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If Grandma lives 90 miles away your 100% charged 100D has to get what, 550 Wh/mile? So Grandma lives in North Dakota and you leave with a stone cold pack, and she doesn't have an ordinary wall outlet to keep the pack warm, yes, that trip would be iffy.
If Grandma has an accessible wall outlet, then that'd help. But if she's 110 miles away instead of 90, then you'd still have the same challenge. The point is that this isn't some kind of crazy corner case.

Of course you can find scenarios that the current packs don't do. We all seem to agree on that. The disagreement is over how important it is to the growth of EV deliveries. My stance is that it needs to be solved eventually, but not now. Eventually it will be a no-brainer to sell that 200 kWh configuration. It makes absolutely no sense now. Some people will be left out because of this. These people are still important and will still be part of the long-term picture.
While I agree that it would be a waste of effort for Tesla to completely re-architect their EVs to be able to accommodate 200 kWh packs today, I'd prefer to avoid framing this as an either/or proposition. My position is that Tesla should continue to incrementally increase their maximum available pack sizes as technology improvements permit. This need not subtract from their ability to deliver smaller, cheaper packs to those who aren't prepared to pay for the largest capacity available.

So, in terms of capacity and range, what should the end goal be? For mass market, lower cost vehicles such as the Model 3/Y, there will always be a need to balance cost vs. performance/functionality. However, for premium, halo EVs such as the Model S/X, I think the ultimate, long term goal for the top trim level should be to achieve a higher level of convenience than an ICE vehicle in virtually all circumstances, even on road trips.

To this end, I'd like to see a premium EV with the ability to do a full day's drive with zero charging stops, assuming no towing or severe conditions, and assuming the existence of high-power destination charging (~70A). To throw out a number, 1000 km (621 miles) of EPA-rated range ought to accomplish this. 200 kWh of capacity might be about right. But it might take a decade or longer for this to come to fruition.
 
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If Grandma has an accessible wall outlet, then that'd help. But if she's 110 miles away instead of 90, then you'd still have the same challenge. The point is that this isn't some kind of crazy corner case.
Moving the goalposts - Wikipedia

Sure. It's also okay to cede the corner cases for now and spend the effort building out the infrastructure and improvements that will help all the people in the middle. Maybe instead you spend those pack improvements on allowing higher charging rates, so you eventually get 350kW charging, or on a battery that loses less capacity when col, or on lowering the cost of the battery, or hotter charging without damage, or a twenty year design lifetime instead of a ten year one. Throwing more battery at the car solves things for fewer and fewer people as you go on.
 
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