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I think we'll see first 10k VIN assigned in next 7-12 days.
But even so. I suspect the first quarter will have produced about 7500 cars. That is like 625 cars per week. I’m not sure what the wording was when referencing 2500 cars per week by end of first quarter. An average, burst. I think there may be a stock opportunity about second week of second quarter. It will be interesting in a couple years to find out what the real hold up was. Software, robotics, supply chain. At this point I suspect doubts of 2500 per week by end of 2018 are starting to surface. I wonder if the new battery back assembly integration is the culprit. Time will tell.
 
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But even so. I suspect the first quarter will have produced about 7500 cars. That is like 625 cars per week. I’m not sure what the wording was when referencing 2500 cars per week by end of first quarter. An average, burst. I think there may be a stock opportunity about second week of second quarter. It will be interesting in a couple years to find out what the real hold up was. Software, robotics, supply chain. At this point I suspect doubts of 2500 per week by end of 2018 are starting to surface. I wonder if the new battery back assembly integration is the culprit. Time will tell.
as more time wears on, the more pessimistic I become. They were supposed to be at 5000 per week in December, then end of Q1, then end of Q2 and 2500 per week by end of Q1. Considering they only registered 1088 new VINs from Feb 3 to March 2 and no more since then, I don't see production ramping up yet.
 
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as more time wears on, the more pessimistic I become. They were supposed to be at 5000 per week in December, then end of Q1, then end of Q2 and 2500 per week by end of Q1. Considering they only registered 1088 new VINs from Feb 3 to March 2 and no more since then, I don't see production ramping up yet.

There might be the possibility that a few key things need to fall in place and then there is a huge jump in production. Possibly the German battery machine. Like I say, a couple years from now we’ll be able to read about the delay...hopefully not in the companies epitaph. :(
 
Just saw from your previous post that you configured on 2/10, white/aero. I (and I am sure several other white/aero people on this thread) find this upsetting that Tesla is clearly not delivering in order. I ordered on 2/4/2018, white/aero, SoCal, NO VIN.

Obviously not your fault. Congrats!

Yep. I configured 2/4. Previous owner, black, aeros, EAP in the SF Bay Area very close to Tesla in Fremont.. No VIN. Now at 31 days and counting...
 
I’m not sure what the wording was when referencing 2500 cars per week by end of first quarter.

In Q4, they never actually produced 1000 cars in a single week, but their production rate over the last few days of the quarter extrapolated across a week was close (~997/week if I remember right). I'd expect at this point that the best case scenario for Q1 '18 is a similar result, i.e. a production rate of ~357.14 cars/day (2500/7) for at least one day before the end of the quarter.

Either way, I'm cautiously optimistic that they'll push to get a large portion of our orders out the door and delivered before the end of the quarter.

Los Angeles
Configured 2/22
Black/Aero/FSD
No VIN yet