Nobody talking about the Full Autonomy hint from Elon at Code Conference?!

[ummgood]

I think Google is farther along than people give them credit for. I think they are close if not at level 4. Elon himself said the hardest part is 30-40mph in a populated area with pedestrians. Highway and high traffic areas are easy.

Here is a cool video from SXSW google gave on the autonomous driving.

 

[McHoffa]

During one of Elon talks last year he mentioned autonomous driving will come to Europe a long time before US. It is obvious the main reason is there is no state which has consistent road markings which is required to make it work. I am not saying there are not a few test beds but none are widespread.

I have a Model X with the autopilot option. First Autopilot will only work if there is proper marking (lines) on the road which are clearly marked and not worn. It will work if there is a car in front of you but if the car drives into the ditch it will follow. It is not good on curves roads and you may end up off the road. Other than change lanes once you put the signal on it will not turn. It will not stop at a stop sign or yield at a yield sign or stop at a traffic light. It will in most cases go the correct speed as it can read the speed signs but only if they are black on white. If they are black on yellow it doesn't read those. It doesn't read lighted speed signs like at a school zone or curve. I can only use it a fraction of the time.

I live on an island and the main state road going through the island is the minimum ten feet wide and there are no shoulders. Up until last month it did fine but with a software update it started driving five inches further to the right (this was to prevent head on collisions where the oncoming car was riding the line. This puts the right wheels right on the edge of the road. At times this puts it off the shoulder. If I relied on it I would be in the river.

Based on my experience with the current capability of the X Autopilot and also based on the markings on our highways and roads, we are a long way off from having widespread rollout of autonomous driving. I am not saying the hardware is not there to do rudimentary autonomous driving but it isn't yet activated on the production cars.

My car is in the shop for a list of 16 items. Several relate to autopilot and active avoidance. "Lane keep" and "blind spot" warning doesn't work at all. Even the service supervisor was unable to explain when we did a test drive how these two features work. I was recently in a new Volvo and when I would cross over the line the steering would vibrate and an audible signal would go off if there was a car in my blind-depot. Nothing happens on my Tesla even though it is discussed in the manual.

The have already had myTesla 8 days and may get it back sometime next week. By then they will have some of the items corrected but I have already been told they will need the car 6-8 weeks (not days) more to correct the last of the problems. Since I originally was to take delivey of the car has spend 10 weeks at the service center. Add another 8 weeks that will make it 18 weeks in the first 6 months. I hope after this things get better.

Wow. That sounds terrible. Sorry that you've had such a bad experience. I can only hope things are better with the 3. Even a fraction of that would make the haters hate on Tesla and EVs in general even more.

 

[sandpiper]

Sorry, the current iteration of AutoPilot is already qualified as "Highway Level 3"

U.S. Department of Transportation Releases Policy on Automated Vehicle Development | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

Uh no... the Google car is level 3, as per the document that you reference. Tesla is clearly level 2. You need to put hands on the wheel every 4-5 minutes on average even on the highway.

Even Google is a long way from deployable level 4. Last I heard there has to be a driver intervention every 5,000 miles. When you look at the millions of cars on the road, that's a LOT of interventions every day. Large numbers demand a very high level of performance, and that last bit is going to get tougher and tougher.

Non experimental, actual production level 4 is at least a decade away.

 

[electracity]

I think your conclusions are probably correct. Level 4 autonomy is looking like it will become available sometime in 2018.

Reality Check:
Summon getting squirrelier

 

[sandpiper]

I have a Model X with the autopilot option. First Autopilot will only work if there is proper marking (lines) on the road which are clearly marked and not worn. It will work if there is a car in front of you but if the car drives into the ditch it will follow. It is not good on curves roads and you may end up off the road. Other than change lanes once you put the signal on it will not turn. It will not stop at a stop sign or yield at a yield sign or stop at a traffic light. It will in most cases go the correct speed as it can read the speed signs but only if they are black on white. If they are black on yellow it doesn't read those. It doesn't read lighted speed signs like at a school zone or curve. I can only use it a fraction of the time.

It's really only intended for highway use, and I find it works really well there. It's not intended for in-town. And Tesla has been pretty open about this: it's a "beta" product intended only for use on the highway and with the driver paying continuous attention. Tesla has done a lot better than any other manufacturer, but it's still all very very new.

 

[gregincal]

Top 10 Autonomous Car Facts: When Will Self-Driving Cars Arrive, What's Holding Them Up?


Basically, SAE level 4 "high-automation" is what Tesla considers fully autonomous. This doesn't mean the car can always operate without a driver, rather it means that it can perform well enough to keep passengers safe in most situations. That is, it will not proceed when road or traffic conditions are confusing and possibly alert driver to take action. That makes sense, but level 4 is not fully autonomous in the actual sense as it still needs someone to understand conditions like broken down vehicles, construction, non functioning traffic signals, many types of detour signs, etc.

Both you and that article are wrong. The NHTSA is very clear about level 4 autonomy. This is directly from their website:

Full Self-Driving Automation (Level 4): The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.

Level 5 is basically identical to level 4 except that there are no controls. I.e. In Level 4 the driver is never required to be in control at any time, in level 5 they don't even have an option.

 

[zenmaster]

Merely performing "all safety-critical driving functions" is grossly insufficient to get one reliably from point A to B. It is sufficient to avoid accidents while making the attempt, however. And while level 5 subsumes level 4, it is not simply level 4 w/o controls as, of course, it'd need to function as well as a person in all conditions. This should be obvious. Again, Tesla means SAE level 4 "full autonomy" which necessarily requires driver input. In other words, it can not reliably function properly without a driver being present.

 

[ecarfan]

Merely performing "all safety-critical driving functions" is grossly insufficient to get one reliably from point A to B.

That is not the only part of the NHTSA Level 4 description as quoted by @gregincal. I think it is clear from the full description that Level 4 autonomy means the only human input the vehicle requires to safely go from point A to point B is to be given the address of point B or a set of GPS coordinates. That is all. I call that "fully" autonomous driving.

Based on what I have read (I have no inside information) the Google self-driving cars that are modified Prius and Lexus and that I occasionally see on the road in my part of the world are very close to Level 4 cars, or perhaps are at that level. I don't have enough information to confidently make that judgement.

 

[Electric700]

I'm just stoked there will be a 'big' model 3 announcement end of 2016. Wasn't expecting anything official until close to production.

Maybe they are moving up the first Model 3 deliveries to the end of this year! That would be amazing

 

[gregincal]

Merely performing "all safety-critical driving functions" is grossly insufficient to get one reliably from point A to B. It is sufficient to avoid accidents while making the attempt, however. And while level 5 subsumes level 4, it is not simply level 4 w/o controls as, of course, it'd need to function as well as a person in all conditions. This should be obvious. Again, Tesla means SAE level 4 "full autonomy" which necessarily requires driver input. In other words, it can not reliably function properly without a driver being present.

SAE level 4 is not full autonomy. It is High Automation. If you are using SAE standards you need Level 5 for full autonomy. So full autonomy means SAE level 5 or NHTSA level 4. Using "full autonomy" with anything less is completely false. It's either autonomous or not. Fully autonomous by definition means that you don't need a human.

 

[JeffK]

Maybe they are moving up the first Model 3 deliveries to the end of this year! That would be amazing

haha... NO

Elon just meant Model 3 reveal part 2

 

[grommet]

Based on what I have read (I have no inside information) the Google self-driving cars that are modified Prius and Lexus and that I occasionally see on the road in my part of the world are very close to Level 4 cars, or perhaps are at that level. I don't have enough information to confidently make that judgement.

There are two Google self-driving cars... one is a small 2 passenger Google designed electric city car, and really doesn't have traditional controls. The other is a heavily modified Lexus RX 450h technology mule. There is a fleet of these driving around me everyday. They are fully autonomous: enter destination... and it'll drive you there safely. The car -- and all of it's redundant sensors and systems -- constantly makes (conservative) decisions as it drives. These are not consumer products. And Google isn't the only ones with similar R&D vehicles...

Google Self-Driving Car Project

 

[gregincal]

And by the way, right now Tesla is at Level 2 for both SAE and NHTSA. It's not just that you need to take over when the system tells you to, you need to monitor the environment and take over on your own initiative when conditions warrant. See:

Always pay attention to the road ahead and stay prepared to take immediate corrective action.

 

[zenmaster]

Fully autonomous by definition means that you don't need a human.

Read the requirement you quoted again. It clearly says don't need a human for purpose of safety when navigating. But of course a human is required for successful and reliable navigation. Got it? See the difference? That is why Level 5 is actually the one that doesn't need a human *by definition*.

 

[gregincal]

Read the requirement you quoted again. It clearly says don't need a human for purpose of safety when navigating. But of course a human is required for successful and reliable navigation. Got it? See the difference? That is why Level 5 is actually the one that doesn't need a human *by definition*.

A fully autonomous vehicle is one that can be summoned from the other side of the country, as per Elon's promise (I.e. NTHSA level 4 or SAE level5). Nobody but you chooses to call SAE level 4 full autonomy.

 

[flamingoezz]

I don't think anyone is interested in the bickering over what you two are calling fully autonomous. Lets speculate on what we'll see on the M3.

I'd be happy if it could fully take over on the highway with no human interaction necessary. I can handle rides around town, but am hoping my tesla can handle the bulk of long trips without me having to hold the wheel and keep my eyes on the road. Is that a realistic expectation?

 

[calisnow]

I'd be happy if it could fully take over on the highway with no human interaction necessary. I can handle rides around town, but am hoping my tesla can handle the bulk of long trips without me having to hold the wheel and keep my eyes on the road. Is that a realistic expectation?

My AP 1.0 does that now. Yes I'll be upgrading to a new Tesla as soon as 2.0 is released but given the reliability of autopilot right now - yes, your expectations for the Model 3 are very realistic.

 

[zenmaster]

I don't think anyone is interested in the bickering over what you two are calling fully autonomous. Lets speculate on what we'll see on the M3.

I'd be happy if it could fully take over on the highway with no human interaction necessary. I can handle rides around town, but am hoping my tesla can handle the bulk of long trips without me having to hold the wheel and keep my eyes on the road. Is that a realistic expectation?

That would be a realistic expectation for SAE Level 4 on a highway under most conditions.

 

[electracity]

I don't think anyone is interested in the bickering over what you two are calling fully autonomous. Lets speculate on what we'll see on the M3.

I'd be happy if it could fully take over on the highway with no human interaction necessary. I can handle rides around town, but am hoping my tesla can handle the bulk of long trips without me having to hold the wheel and keep my eyes on the road. Is that a realistic expectation?

That's a good question. Will AP 2.0 drive to an endpoint entered in NAV?

I can see Autopilot 2.0 more tightly tied to Navigation. It may drive level 3 when it knows the full route.

 

[AB4EJ]

Uh no... the Google car is level 3, as per the document that you reference. Tesla is clearly level 2. You need to put hands on the wheel every 4-5 minutes on average even on the highway.

Even Google is a long way from deployable level 4. Last I heard there has to be a driver intervention every 5,000 miles. When you look at the millions of cars on the road, that's a LOT of interventions every day. Large numbers demand a very high level of performance, and that last bit is going to get tougher and tougher.

Non experimental, actual production level 4 is at least a decade away.

I tend to agree. I love the whole concept of full autonomy, but many breathless futurists seem to be misunderstanding how tall a technical challenge it is to achieve; to me it is further out than many have predicted. (Hope it will not be like controlled fusion, always 5 years away). Having said that, if we start implementing robust V2V and V2I (vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure) communication (requires adoption of standards), it could be accelerated substantially; full autonomy would then depend on the rate at which we could convert most of the existing fleet to V2V/V2I standards.