Nobody talking about the Full Autonomy hint from Elon at Code Conference?!

[ModelNforNerd]

Even if AP V.2.0 is an "expensive" option.....I will Gladly pay for it !!!!

They don't want to make it TOO expensive. Remember, if they're approaching this in a phased approach for regulatory purposes, they need DATA.

They need to go to the NHTSA and say, APv1.0 prevented ____ accidents. APv2.0 prevented ____+X accidents.

I know ALL AP hardware equipped cars will be sharing traffic and mapping data, but Tesla needs data with the vehicles actually IN CONTROL on the roads. They can't "price out" the beta testers.

 

[geoffreak]

@ecarfan I completely agree that Tesla will be launching APv2 for S/X at such an event. I would go a step farther than that and say the 3 would also be included for reveal part 2. It seems clear to me that the only thing missing from the 3 is autonomy and the interface for it (HUD or whatever). I think the only reason there is a part 2 is that the S/X wasn't ready to receive the new tech and they didn't want to Osborne themselves.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I watched the event, and when the question was asked of Elon, he leaned back and rolled his eyes. From that body language, we are speculating AP2. Could be...but that is based on a head fake. I'm excited too, but .......

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I watched the event, and when the question was asked of Elon, he leaned back and rolled his eyes. From that body language, we are speculating AP2. Could be...but that is based on a head fake. I'm excited too, but .......

But even that is good news for us.

It lets the S/X owners be the "technology leaders" he promised they would be at the Shareholders Meeting, especially if they quietly start rolling it out like they did with the refreshed S....and it still leaves enough lead time for him to say "yea, the hardware will be standard on the 3 as well".

 

[electracity]

Full Autonomy is Level 4, which is the option to sit in the back seat.
The current car is level 2.

In Tesla's development cycle, Level 4 just doesn't appear as a new product. It is evolutionary. The current AP is bacteria, and level 4 is a bald eagle. (Or in keeping with Tesla's China First policy, I should probably say that level 4 is a giant panda).

It does sound like Musk is gearing up to make some big claims about the potential of the new hardware.

 

[Troy916]

I think it's very clear that we'll see the S and X updated right around the part 2 reveal sometime later this fall.

I thought of part 2 reveal for the model 3 he said that too.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Full Autonomy is Level 4, which is the option to sit in the back seat.
The current car is level 2.

In Tesla's development cycle, Level 4 just doesn't appear as a new product. It is evolutionary. The current AP is bacteria, and level 4 is a bald eagle. (Or in keeping with Tesla's China First policy, I should probably say that level 4 is a giant panda).

It does sound like Musk is gearing up to make some big claims about the potential of the new hardware.

But APv2.0 could be HW for now....and a software update as regulatory hurdles are cleared and data is collected. To use your own analogy.....he's giving us the bald eagle, just keeping it caged until the time is right.

 

[Kenypowa]

But APv2.0 could be HW for now....and a software update as regulatory hurdles are cleared and data is collected. To use your own analogy.....he's giving us the bald eagle, just keeping it caged until the time is right.

And this is relevant: Tesla Autopilot 2.0 hardware possibly spotted on Model S test mule.

I doubt the new hardware is present already, but they may be present on the new S and X a couple weeks before the part 2 unveil. It's like how they snuck the 75 KwH battery and didn't announce it until a few weeks later.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

And this is relevant: Tesla Autopilot 2.0 hardware possibly spotted on Model S test mule.

I doubt the new hardware is present already, but they may be present on the new S and X a couple weeks before the part 2 unveil. It's like how they snuck the 75 KwH battery and didn't announce it until a few weeks later.

Yes, they have a history of this. People ordered Model S's and saw their delivery date slip a month with no explanation....then the refresh was announced, and they were told they were getting the updated version.

So this scenario wouldn't surprise me at all, and shouldn't surprise anyone who has been following Tesla.

 

[McHoffa]

I listened to the entire Code conference interview a few hours ago. My recollection is that Musk said there would be a significant Tesla "event" before the end of this year. He did not specifically say it was a "Model 3 event".

He said the topic of the even would be "the obvious".

I can see only one rational way to interpret that phrase: Elon will announce some high level of autonomous driving capability on the S and X. It will be similar to the way that AP was introduced in September 2014: suddenly all cars being built have new hardware, there is an event where Elon announces what the new hardware is for (in that case it was the first version of AP) and that the software will be released soon (in that case it took about a year, certainly longer than he intended it to take).

The event at the end of this year will, in my opinion, be an announcement of something like L4 autonomous driving, near the date of the event all S and X being built will have a new hardware suite of sensors, and the software will follow at some point in the future.

I'm as certain as I can be that is what will happen.

He specifically said that in relation to the Model 3 though.

Walt: "That car will have autonomous for $35k?"

Elon: "Umm, I have a, uhh... I'm going to hold another Tesla event, maybe at the end of the year, to talk more about that... It will be really big news if I start that here... let me just say, we're going to do the obvious thing... it's really obvious"

 

[McHoffa]

Is the Bolt really going to have autonomous features besides lane keep assist? Just wondering if you heard something and from where...

obviously we don't know if this car is Level 1, 2, or 3 autonomous, but it's something
Why GM's Autonomous Chevrolet Bolt is Running Around San Francisco

 

[thebigbobowski]

Is the Bolt really going to have autonomous features besides lane keep assist? Just wondering if you heard something and from where... from what I learned in a recent motor trend video the closest lane keep assist with other manufacturers cars comes to teslas AP is that it just ping pongs back and forth between lane markers (which would have me dry heaving in seconds )

Last I read, there will be NO autopilot software on the Bolt:
Exclusive: Inside The Chevrolet Bolt With Its Chief Engineer - New Details

I specifically asked if the Bolt would have adaptive cruise control, lane departure assist, self parking, automatic braking or any autonomous driving features and I was a little surprised to hear it won’t, not even as optional equipment.

 

[McHoffa]

Last I read, there will be NO autopilot software on the Bolt:
Exclusive: Inside The Chevrolet Bolt With Its Chief Engineer - New Details

I specifically asked if the Bolt would have adaptive cruise control, lane departure assist, self parking, automatic braking or any autonomous driving features and I was a little surprised to hear it won’t, not even as optional equipment.

Interesting. That was 5 months ago. The one seen actually driving around with autonomous features was in May.

also, there is this
GM and Lyft to launch autonomous Chevy Bolts in the next year

 

[zenmaster]

If the driver must take over when the car gets confused, how is that considered "fully autonomous"? The U.S. DOT regs say "Level 5" is fully autonomous, not level 4.

 

[favo]

Towards the end of the year or beginning of next year, I expect Elon will do a presentation on AP 2.0, including saying that the last several weeks of Model S/X coming of the line have the new hardware (which TMC will already know). I will be surprised if he doesn't also say that Model 3 will get the same hardware (maybe as an option-but more likely hardware standard, safety software features standard, convenience software features an option). The software will roll out to Model S/X after a couple months, so those folks will be on the cutting edge. Model 3 will come out 6-12 months later, so AP 2.0 will have essentially trickled down from S/X.

AP 1.0 has too many caveats and corner cases that aren't handled. Model 3 owners are likely to be somewhat less tolerant of "beta" features. There would likely be accidents as a result of people not RTFM. The negative publicity from this would far outweigh the cost of the AP 2.0 hardware. I can't see Tesla holding back on the AP features for Model 3. I have no problem seeing them release new software versions on Model S/X first, but those features would trickle down to Model 3 before too long.

 

[favo]

Most owners would be happy to earn extra money lending out their Tesla for an autonomous Uber.

While I agree that Uber and similar services (maybe a Tesla version) will jump all over autonomous vehicles, and that will significantly change the landscape of transportation, I think you are way overstating how many Model 3 owners would pimp out their cars for Uber. I would be shocked if it exceeds 10%. People willing to plunk down $35K - $60K for a car don't want to let strangers have their way with it totally unsupervised. I barely even want to give rides to my family and friends with their dirty feet, greasy fingers, and tendency to bump into the outside of the car (but I will).

 

[zenmaster]

Typically software is released on all compatible platforms as it has nothing to do with production costs.

 

[McHoffa]

While I agree that Uber and similar services (maybe a Tesla version) will jump all over autonomous vehicles, and that will significantly change the landscape of transportation, I think you are way overstating how many Model 3 owners would pimp out their cars for Uber. I would be shocked if it exceeds 10%. People willing to plunk down $35K - $60K for a car don't want to let strangers have their way with it totally unsupervised. I barely even want to give rides to my family and friends with their dirty feet, greasy fingers, and tendency to bump into the outside of the car (but I will).

For the returns you'd receive pimping your car out, it wouldn't be worth the hassle. People are already rude and disrespectful to Uber drivers, but can you imagine the things they might do in a car with no driver to see them??

 

[CarlitoDoc]

Most owners would be happy to earn extra money lending out their Tesla for an autonomous Uber.

Mmmmmmm, No. Not likely, but that is just me.

 

[grommet]

Elon has stated, not specifically for Tesla, that he expects the full autonomy technology to be available in 2 years... and then another year for regulatory issues.

The next-generation Mobileye EyeQ4 SOC will hit production around 2018; we can assume their technology will continue to be used as they add features... since Tesla currently uses EyeQ3 on Model S & Model X for the basic Auto Pilot functions it has now.

As such, don't expect the far more affordable & easy to manufacture ("keep it simple") Model 3 to be fully self-driving in V1.

FYI: I live in the world of very expensive Google Self-Driving prototype cars here... there isn't a day I don't see at least 3.