It's actually the opposite. You would understand that if you had any semblance of knowledge on the topic.
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- Thread starter Drrobmiller
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It's actually the opposite. You would understand that if you had any semblance of knowledge on the topic.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
How generic are they ? Can we just put them in a different city and they would work ? Are they selling those "robo taxis" to customers ?
Self-driving robotaxis are taking off in China
The world has been inching toward fully autonomous cars for years. In China, one company just got even closer to making it a reality.www.cnn.com
There are already self-driving robotaxis on the road in China. Comments like "no other company is remotely close to Tesla" makes me wonder if people simply aren't aware that robotaxis already exist and are already in operation.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
And Waymo hasn't sold a single car. Blah ...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
As soon as Wayo starts selling their driverless cars to customers.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well, atleast he is not reading this thread an
So 1wk to V10 and then 4 weeks = 5 more weeks.
Good to see the industry move from perpetual 5 years to 5 weeks.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I'm just curious what will be different in 4 weeks? What is the criteria for wide release of FSD Beta?
I wonder if they're working on a version with less functionality and more confirmations because it's hard to imagine what else could be significantly different from where it is today.
I wonder if they're working on a version with less functionality and more confirmations because it's hard to imagine what else could be significantly different from where it is today.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Well, Elon said that V10 will go to a single stack for both highway and city driving. So presumably, that's what the retraining is for. They should already know what the safety is for city FSD Beta. So my guess is they will take a "few weeks", as Elon said, to make sure that the retraining did not break anything. We should also get the same FSD Beta visualization for both highway and city.
Agreed. I don’t expect v10 to blow minds with city driving. I expect it will be more or less the same what we have now. With a single stack we may Possibly get better NoA on the freeway/auto park/summon
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I can smell your fear on this one! You're concerned they might just go ahead and release it in something close to its current form (something you have said you think will never happen as I recall)! It certainly is possible: the ultimate viral feature, optimized for YouTube - even better than Smart Summon! I guess we'll see. It's not going to happen in four weeks, of course, but in some short-medium term beyond that they could release something like this, I suppose.
You should keep the faith though - seems a little crazy, even for Tesla. The consequences are so much more serious in this case than they were with Smart Summon. And I don't really see what has changed since March so not sure why the result would be any different.
linux-works
Active Member
its partial differential.
(I should have paid more attention to the wheelchair guy, doh!)
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
What I actually said:
Obviously it's better than it was in Q4 of 2019 though not nearly as good as I expected. I guess I said 100x better by the end of 2021 so there's still time!
I just don't see what's really changed. It doesn't seem any safer to release it today than it did in Q4 of 2019.
It will definitely be the most viral feature ever. I do think it will actually be released this time, there's no way Elon could do this to us again, he's a changed man.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
GlmnAlyAirCar
Active Member
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Only people who voted correctly (or at all!) can judge me.
Also, it hasn't been released and there were criteria!
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I know, I know, but I can just hear the trepidation. You're scared about all those positive confirmations that are going to be coming shortly, with The Button.
Ok? How is that the same as Waymo that ONLY operates in one city? Derp.
powertoold
Active Member
My take on beta 10 and the promise of a public fsd beta:
1) Beta 10's visualization will likely be based on the spatial RNN mapping that Karpathy mentioned during AI day. This means that the car will paint a more stable map of it's environment based on its confidence of the road geometry and features. With V9, the visualization is continually updated, so the NN is redrawing the visualization with every frame. With beta 10, the car will only draw what it's confident of, and the map is persisted after the car drives past the road geometry. The car will only overwrite a pixel if its confidence increases in subsequent frames.
2) Tesla's NNs are always completely retrained whenever they want to include a new or updated dataset. Karpathy even said so during AI day when asked about "continual learning" during Q&A. So what's Elon talking about when he says Tesla is retraining the NN? I think he's just saying that Tesla has updated their NN architecture, and it now needs to be retrained with the existing dataset.
3) How does Elon know beta 10 is next level if he's only driving 9.3? It's likely beta 10's NN has gone through several shadow modes, so it's getting to the point where it's ready, and they can see from the outputs of the shadow mode NNs that it's "next-level." We know this is the case because Elon has mentioned beta 10 for a while now, but the Tesla team didn't know exactly how many shadow builds it required to reach their deployment threshold.
4) It's still very unlikely The Button will be available in 4 weeks...
5) This is all my speculation. We can confirm once it's released soon.
1) Beta 10's visualization will likely be based on the spatial RNN mapping that Karpathy mentioned during AI day. This means that the car will paint a more stable map of it's environment based on its confidence of the road geometry and features. With V9, the visualization is continually updated, so the NN is redrawing the visualization with every frame. With beta 10, the car will only draw what it's confident of, and the map is persisted after the car drives past the road geometry. The car will only overwrite a pixel if its confidence increases in subsequent frames.
2) Tesla's NNs are always completely retrained whenever they want to include a new or updated dataset. Karpathy even said so during AI day when asked about "continual learning" during Q&A. So what's Elon talking about when he says Tesla is retraining the NN? I think he's just saying that Tesla has updated their NN architecture, and it now needs to be retrained with the existing dataset.
3) How does Elon know beta 10 is next level if he's only driving 9.3? It's likely beta 10's NN has gone through several shadow modes, so it's getting to the point where it's ready, and they can see from the outputs of the shadow mode NNs that it's "next-level." We know this is the case because Elon has mentioned beta 10 for a while now, but the Tesla team didn't know exactly how many shadow builds it required to reach their deployment threshold.
4) It's still very unlikely The Button will be available in 4 weeks...
5) This is all my speculation. We can confirm once it's released soon.
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Tesomega
Member
Button: I will believe it when I see it.
FSD v10 in 4 weeks - for my scenario I am 100% certain its not happening, I have not seen a single car MCU1/AP3/FSD in the beta tests..
FSD v10 in 4 weeks - for my scenario I am 100% certain its not happening, I have not seen a single car MCU1/AP3/FSD in the beta tests..
My prediction is that as Elon mentioned, highway driving, summon, auto park will be moved to a single stack(maybe not all at once), so there may be some potential improvements to those. (This is the best I hope to see)
Other than that, like you mentioned retraining NN on a new data set is not a big deal, and I expect the v10 performance to be incremental on par with V8.2->V9. I don’t think spatial mapping will be included in 10. Elon never mentioned anything along those lines and that would be a big deal.
Let's be careful .. it's to a select group of testers and will have a safety driver so "deployed" might not be the right word.
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