I’m not holding my breath I think it will still be a lot better than 9.2 but what waymo doing it one town is way easier than what Tesla is trying to accomplish.
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- Thread starter Drrobmiller
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Elon is saying Tesla basically focuses on the Bay Area so, not a whole lot different than Waymo.
Self-driving robotaxis are taking off in China
The world has been inching toward fully autonomous cars for years. In China, one company just got even closer to making it a reality.
There are already self-driving robotaxis on the road in China. Comments like "no other company is remotely close to Tesla" makes me wonder if people simply aren't aware that robotaxis already exist and are already in operation.
Not sure it's been discussed...but Elon is saying the NN needs to be "completely retrained." There goes Tesla's supposed advantage in data and X million/billion of miles over competitors. With all of the rewrites, removing radar, etc. the # of miles talking point becomes less and less relevant.
Tesla says a lot of things. Time to put up or shut up at this point.
How long do you think it takes Tesla's fleet to drive 1 billion miles looking for data relevant for (re-)training? At AI Day, they gave an example of very quickly collecting clips of debris to improve the vision-only predictions. If we estimate 2 million vehicles and 30 miles per day, over a week that's 420 million miles. And Tesla's fleet is constantly growing currently approaching 1 million more per year, so it won't be long before Tesla is observing real world 1 billion "new" miles every week.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, he's not. He's saying they have a disproportionate amount of their training data from there simply because it's where they've sold the most cars- not that they're geo-locked to only have HD maps there.
This too, is not just wrong, but fundamentally misunderstands how any of this works.
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Are you implying all Tesla vehicles on the road are FSD beta testers? I was unaware of this.
FSD sure is better than blue cruise. If we are to believe what was showing on AI day with the vehicle making a decision to go .not going and go when two cars were coming down in the drive space, they are far ahead of in this game. No, they are not there yet and are far from it but I feel Tesla has the right approach. Just look at how they are making vehicles by casting. Way out thinking any manufacture. I'm driving a 2014 S with AP1. Even then they were light years ahead of anything ford or GM is doing now.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Again you appear ignorant of the basic way the system works.
You don't need to be an FSDBeta tester to collect data for Tesla to train NNs with.
You don't even need to have regular FSD for that.
The entire active fleet with HW2 or newer can collect this data.
Doesn't change anything - the data set gets better over time. That's still millions/billions of miles to learn what works or doesn't work. They retrain the NNs for every NN change AFAICT.
rxlawdude
Active Member
Five generations (four apparent failures) before they even reach general release of their product. ROFLMAO!!!
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
After 3 generations (a 4th is on its way) and multiple rewrites, Tesla is still at L2. ROFLMAO!!!
rxlawdude
Active Member
My point is that in PR, admitting you've had four prior versions of failure before you even have a product might not be smart. Of course there are iterations, but touting "fifth generation" with no context is meaningless marketing fluff.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Except nobody is admitting to "four prior versions of failures". That is not what the PR is implying. Waymo is simply stating the fact that this is their 5th Gen FSD. Yes, they are simply natural iterations in the development process. You are the one trying to spin it into something negative.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
I'm trying to do the math here. "2 weeks" has been 6 months so far. So now it is 4 weeks passed V10. Is that a linear equation or an exponential equation?
4 weeks = ?????
Yes, it is just my silly sarcastic mood this morning. Forgive me.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I'm trying to do the math here. "2 weeks" has been 6 months so far. So now it is 4 weeks passed V10. Is that a linear equation or an exponential equation?
4 weeks = ?????
Yes, it is just my silly sarcastic mood this morning. Forgive me.
Don't worry. It's just "Elon Math". It's like new math that they are teaching in school now. It makes no sense.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
Thanks. I am trying to apply my 1960s math teachings to 2021 math (in case it has changed)
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