Only initial options: color and wheel size?

[HankLloydRight]

Call me a skeptic, but this is what I expect in production PER MONTH, not per week.

July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
Month of October: 500 - employees
Month of November: 1000 - employees
Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
Month of January: 5000 - California
Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.

This is exactly what I expect, also.

But as long-term forum members know, I've guessed wrong on almost everything Tesla has done (facelift, AP2, etc). So I won't be surprised if they beat these estimates, but my gut says not to expect much more than this. But also as a stockholder, I hope they prove me wrong.

 

[dsvick]

Call me a skeptic, but this is what I expect in production PER MONTH, not per week.

July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
Month of October: 500 - employees
Month of November: 1000 - employees
Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
Month of January: 5000 - California
Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.

I think you're way off on your estimate and they'll ramp up much faster than you estimate. Maybe not the 5K per week by the end of the year that Tesla says but still what you're saying. My biggest question though is that you think there are less than 3,000 employee reservations?

 

[Zaphod]

Call me a skeptic, but this is what I expect in production PER MONTH, not per week.

July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
Month of October: 500 - employees
Month of November: 1000 - employees
Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
Month of January: 5000 - California
Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.

That seems way too pessimistic. Only <4,000 in 6-7 months? Only 25 cars/week in September off of actual production line? Don't think could get more pessimistic than that.

 

[sandpiper]

This is exactly what I expect, also.

But as long-term forum members know, I've guessed wrong on almost everything Tesla has done (facelift, AP2, etc). So I won't be surprised if they beat these estimates, but my gut says not to expect much more than this. But also as a stockholder, I hope they prove me wrong.

Exactly. I absolutely hope I am wrong. And I will give them all of the credit in the world if I am.

 

[sandpiper]

That seems way too pessimistic. Only <4,000 in 6-7 months? Only 25 cars/week in September off of actual production line? Don't think could get more pessimistic than that.

Perhaps. I've been through a lot of manufacturing startups. There is a LOT of grief getting the first acceptable product completely through the production line.

 

[sandpiper]

I think you're way off on your estimate and they'll ramp up much faster than you estimate. Maybe not the 5K per week by the end of the year that Tesla says but still what you're saying. My biggest question though is that you think there are less than 3,000 employee reservations?

I don't know of course. But at 35K, it's still an expensive car for a lot of hard-working folks.

And again... I would LOVE to be wrong about the ramp up.

 

[Topher]

an unloved starter car?

Let's hope so for the sake of all those people who we need to get into electric vehicles, but can't afford a new fully optioned Model 3.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

I am asking if they are shipping individual cells or completed packs to Fremont from the Gigafactory.

I recall that they said, they would be making not only packs, but partial drive trains at the Gigafactory.

September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees

That's silly. They are making them faster than that NOW. Also, they have ordered parts for way more cars than that, they are going to hunting up new places to stash them, and cash to pay for them if they are that off on their predictions. But since their predictions are based on actual data (and Elon's optimism), and has been told to stockholders, and yours is just based on your pessimism...

Thank you kindly.

 

[HankLloydRight]

That's silly. They are making them faster than that NOW.

You have proof of this from where, exactly?

 

[jsrawa]

Perhaps. I've been through a lot of manufacturing startups. There is a LOT of grief getting the first acceptable product completely through the production line.

I'm not saying it will be easy or they will meet the goals they've publicly discussed but I just can't imagine the ramp moving this slowly.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Are they going to be like an S40 w/o supercharger access, AP, etc etc, an unloved starter car?

I would imagine most S40 owners are extremely happy with their cars. I'm actually a little jealous of them. In hindsight I would have bought a 40 and been enjoying my car for the last 4 and a half years. At the time, I just didn't know how awesome the Model S would prove to be. I really doubt they've depreciated any more than the higher end models. Probably less.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla has what? 13K employees?

If each employee purchases one....Tesla could build all of them in the August and September IMHO.

I highly doubt the numbers are coming in at 1 car per employee.