Order now and get a Delivery in May????

[vangogh]

On the Model X design studio...It shows orders taken now for a P90D will be delivered in May...
If Tesla produces 750 X's a week, and assuming a late may delivery, there are only about 7 weeks of
backlog or 7*750 cars being delivered...or 5300 cars...

I thought the orders before the design studio opened were well over 5300 cars...
Something does not seem to add up unless alot of people canceled their orders or the May being refered to is 2017 or 2018...

Any input?

 

[deonb]

They always deliver premium cars ahead in the queue. So if you wait 7 weeks for a P90D, it means they have 7 weeks of P90D orders - not 7 weeks of X's.

 

[EV Family]

I think you might be right. Likely plenty of unconfirmed or cancelled orders. I think with X's soon to be in stores as well as available for test drives for the masses there will be more orders coming. But, the X has very big shoes to fill for it to gain as much traction as its older brother has. We know they recalled 2700 cars recently and several hundred more have likely been delivered since the recall date. Say around 3000 built so far and another 2-3000 more to go as indicated by vins as high as 5800.
So yeah you might be right that the orders never materials as TM had hoped.

 

[vangogh]

They always deliver premium cars ahead in the queue. So if you wait 7 weeks for a P90D, it means they have 7 weeks of P90D orders - not 7 weeks of X's.

And the quoted delivery time for the 70D is June...Still only 3000 cars (at 750 a week) Still much less than the 10's of Thousands of X's that deposits were received for...

 

[Shopi01]

Don't forget that tesla has not started international deliveries. Also the 750/wk production rate is as of mid/late March and is an average. I assume they are cranking them up in a rate of 1000/wk

 

[Robbo]

I think the delivery dates in the design studio are BS. I configured my 90D X back in January and just got a VIN with an estimated delivery date of late May-June. I highly doubt brand new 90D orders will see May deliveries.

 

[goneskiian]

Oloron did a great "back of napkin" analysis in the "Model X April Deliveries" thread of this seeming conundrum that explains it well...

#358

For what it's worth, here's an estimate I did before for someone asking about the 30k reservations vs. 2.7k deliveries gap...

All told, Tesla has sent about 7000 Model X into production at this point. (some delivered, some still in production, all 90's, all US)

The difference between that and the 30,000 reservations is: (along with my very rough estimates, very liberally rounded)
- International orders (~40% = 12,000), leaving 18,000 US reservations
- Cancellations (~10% = 2000), leaving 16,000 reservations
- Reservations waiting to Order to test drive, save up, let bugs to be fixed, etc. (~30% = 5000), leaving 11,000 reservations
- Orders for 70's (~10% = 1000), leaving 10,000 reservations
- Orders for 5 seat models (~10% = 1000), leaving 9,000 reservations

So of that very rough estimation, we would only expect around 9,000 (realistically, +/- several thousand) to be eligible for production at this point. Given that the actual number is currently 7,000 that seems wholly reasonable, especially if Tesla releases another batch of VIN's this week for any remaining 90's.

 

[Colby Boles]

They always deliver premium cars ahead in the queue. So if you wait 7 weeks for a P90D, it means they have 7 weeks of P90D orders - not 7 weeks of X's.

That hasn't been the case at all for the Model X thus far. There are numerous P90Ds ordered in Dec/Jan that are still not delivered while at the same time there are examples of 90Ds ordered in later months that have already been delivered.

 

[Scrith]

I ordered in early January and am still hoping for a factory delivery before May, but it is looking less and less likely with each passing day.