Wow, I'm not doing so good with this convertible bonds thing...
That makes a lot more sense.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
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Wow, I'm not doing so good with this convertible bonds thing...
That makes a lot more sense.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Despite this afternoon's fade, today was a bullish day for TSLA. Here's why:
1) TSLA greatly outperformed the market. With the NASDAQ down 3% and tech stocks down 4-5% (NVIDIA was down 12%), TSLA's close at virtually no loss was outstanding.
2) TSLA exceeded 366 today before descending. What we've seen in this climb is that TSLA first broadcasts that it is capable of topping a SP by touching that price some time during the trading day. Then, over a number of sessions, it has to work to legitimately claim that gain. I see today as a warning that it's only a matter of time before TSLA claims 366 and points further north.
There are lots of possible sellers once TSLA has peaked for the day including day traders, shorts, and big firms such as ARK Invest which keep bumping up against their max allowable percentages. TSLA's shorts are most certainly the sellers when selling in huge chunks within a minute time span occur.When you consider that shorts were tagged with over 57% of TSLA sales today, it's apparent they were active in the afternoon push down. Consider:
11:26am- 20k+ shares sold in a minute to start dip from daily high
12:06pm- 44k+ shares sold in a minute to pull SP below 360
12:15pm- 37k+ shares sold in a minute to pull SP further below 360
These are quantities of stock that your average day trader doesn't have access to. An investor such as ARK would not sell shares in such enormous clumps because doing so pushed the SP down and ARK owns lots of shares. Moreover, it is profitable for groups of big-ass shorts who are in this for the drag it puts on Tesla to easily profit on days such as today. Once the SP has run up so high that it's vulnerable on a day with really bad macros, big shorts start their sell in big chunks routine, cover lower, sell in big chunks, rinse and repeat. This is why you have seen and will continue to see afternoon fades with TSLA. Besides profits, the dips reduce losses on an individual short's core short positions in TSLA. The good news? In time, all of today's lost ground is regained, and then the process of TSLA running higher on exuberance begins the pattern anew.
TSLA was decoupled from the NASDAQ (chart above) for most of the day. Nonetheless, the pressure of a 3% dip in the NASDAQ, combined with shorts selling in big clumps today, pushed TSLA lower in the afternoon.
Shorts sold 57.03% of TSLA today, another very high number, which suggests lots of manipulations. This is a particularly high number when you consider that shorts are busy with net covering these days!
The chart above confirms an overall pattern of short-seller covering as TSLA climbs.
The above exchange of words between Robert Bush and Ihor Dusaniwsky confirms that we are on the right track in understanding Dusaniwsky's methods. Twice a month he adjusts his model to the NASDAQ data, which is the most accurate. Ihor cannot see all trading, though, and for this reason he can be off by quite a bit by the time the next NASDAQ data is released.
Looking at the tech chart, please notice the blue 50 day moving average rapidly approaching the red 200 DMA. A golden cross will be welcomed by the technical traders. Also, see that solid green line just below the blue that is climbing like a rocket? That's the lower bollinger band, which should provide some support if the bottom falls out of the market (not expected) or Elon starts up with a wild Twitter barrage (also not expected).
For the week, keep in mind that Monday of Thanksgiving week is (according to Curt Renz) a typically down day. Further, Wednesday and Friday can be days with weak volume, susceptible to FUD and bear attacks. It's possible that the very favorable media climate Tesla has induced lately may be a deterrent to such behaviors. It's going to be interesting to find out.
Conditions:
* Dow down 396 (1.56%)
* NASDAQ down 219 (3.03%)
* TSLA 353.47, down 0.84 (0.24%)
* TSLA volume 9.7M shares
* Oil 57.20, up 0.52 (0.92%)
Today's action might also have had in it some combination of the following Thanksgiving Spooky story:
Joe Fund Manager is taking a bath on the rest of his portfolio, and with the holiday week upon us - and he off to Aunt Shirley's tomorrow for the nonce - and Brexit Blues Breathing Balefully on the market, and APEC having turned into a hissyfit between youknowwho and youknowwho, and and and -
then by midafternoon King Cash was looking very very appealing. "Maybe I'll just carve off a few million of our TSLA position until next week, and that way I can send out a month-end report that looks only horrid rather than vomitingly wretched", he thought as he prepared to leave the office before everyone else.
Joe Fund Manager is taking a bath on the rest of his portfolio, and with the holiday week upon us - and he off to Aunt Shirley's tomorrow for the nonce - and Brexit Blues Breathing Balefully on the market, and APEC having turned into a hissyfit between youknowwho and youknowwho, and and and -
then by midafternoon King Cash was looking very very appealing. "Maybe I'll just carve off a few million of our TSLA position until next week, and that way I can send out a month-end report that looks only horrid rather than vomitingly wretched", he thought as he prepared to leave the office before everyone else.
Well, if you string too many bad macro days in a row TSLA is going to have a bad day, but as it turned out, not all that bad a day. The NASDAQ opened quite low, rose a bit then descended into the daily low at about 10:20am. Notice, though, that TSLA's 10:20am dip was quite a bit deeper than the NASDAQ because the NASDAQ only fell a little its starting level but TSLA fell quite a bit more. Such dips on steroids are manufactured by shorts to take out as many stop-loss orders as it can. The perpetrators then try to cover at the bottom. Alas, once TSLA bottomed a bit below 334, it rose quickly, as shorts eager to get out and longs eager to get in at a discount started buying.
TSLA showed a strong recovery prior to close and ended down a similar amount as the NASDAQ, about 1.7%. What we saw with other tech stocks was a wide variety of moves. NVDA had been oversold and closed up 3% while AAPL closed down more than 5%. AMZN was very much like TSLA and closed near the NASDAQ percentage. All in all, TSLA fared well during this continued macro assault.
Regarding macros, low oil prices may lift a bit and take some of the edge off economic worries as OPEC considers cuts to address the price problem. Meanwhile, low oil prices are anti-inflationary, and with the stock market struggling and oil prices remaining low, the Fed has an incentive to ease the pace of interest rate hikes. Let's hope so, at least.
The NASDAQ fell 1.7% today, just a smidge more than TSLA
TSLA shorts were tagged with 54.6% of the selling today, a number that remains high and suggests continued manipulations
Conditions:
* Dow down 552 (2.21%)
* NASDAQ down 120 (1.70%)
* TSLA 347.49, down 5.98 (1.69%)
* TSLA volume 8.0M shares
* Oil 53.51, up 0.08 (0.15%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 54.6%
Here's a particularly interesting paragraph from this Washington Post article:
Nasdaq has called for new rules requiring short sellers to disclose more information about the positions they hold against companies to even the playing field. “Investors with short positions can pursue strategies designed to invisibly drive down share prices … intending to profit from the uncertainty created,” Nasdaq said in a package of proposals to revitalize the capital markets.
I think the SEC is over its head with protecting the markets from misbehavior, so they're concentrating on the ponzi schemes and going after flamboyant billionaires who are always in the press. The agency doesn't have enough resources to do an adequate job and so they give the appearance of adequacy. Exchanges like the NASDAQ see the abuses by short-sellers getting out of hand and are taking care of these shortcomings themselves. Bravo!
Nasdaq has called for new rules requiring short sellers to disclose more information about the positions they hold against companies to even the playing field. “Investors with short positions can pursue strategies designed to invisibly drive down share prices … intending to profit from the uncertainty created,” Nasdaq said in a package of proposals to revitalize the capital markets.
I think the SEC is over its head with protecting the markets from misbehavior, so they're concentrating on the ponzi schemes and going after flamboyant billionaires who are always in the press. The agency doesn't have enough resources to do an adequate job and so they give the appearance of adequacy. Exchanges like the NASDAQ see the abuses by short-sellers getting out of hand and are taking care of these shortcomings themselves. Bravo!
Is anybody here noticing the formation of the golden cross? Or it's my eyes that are crossed?
Yep, with the red 200 DMA level and the blue 50 DMA rising towards the SP, which is quite a bit higher than either the 200 DMA or 50 DMA, golden cross coming soon to a theater near you.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Pre-market TSLA trading was up today, but the broader markets showed green, which suggested other stocks more closely tied to the indexes were better trades today, and so TSLA longs did very little with the stock today, which resulted in a very low 4.7 million shares volume. With such a low volume and with eyes turned away from TSLA, the shorts took full advantage of the situation. Note the three icicles in morning trading with a deep 11am-ish dip that was not related to the NASDAQ. As it turns out, nearly 61% of TSLA selling was tagged as short today, which confirms that shorty had his hand in the red shown by TSLA today. When the NASDAQ started running downhill closer to close, shorty was able to push a bit and duplicate this downhill run on TSLA, even though the NASDAQ was well in the green and TSLA already well in the red.
The NASDAQ had a good day but fell off in the final hour and a half of trading
Shorts were tagged with 60.73% of TSLA selling today, suggesting particularly high mischief.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see the pattern in this slower-climb portion of the rally. TSLA tests higher prices until it stumbles and takes a dip. It works its way higher until another big dip, and then it repeats. Each set of climbs gets it higher, and any time it touches a price it exceeds that price in the next series of climbs after the dip. If this pattern continues, Friday should begin another climb, but since Friday is susceptible to mischief by shorty (as I warned today might be), we may have to wait until Monday to see the pattern of climbs after the big dip reemerges.
We still have next week to contend with, but after that we're into December and that month begins more serious positioning for the Q4 delivery and production numbers. Expect the Q4-anticipation tractor beam to become operational in December.
Until then, have a good Thanksgiving!
Conditions:
* Dow down 1 (0.00%)
* NASDAQ up 54 (0.92%)
* TSLA 338.19, down 9.30 (2.68%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 54.64, up 0.01 (0.02%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 60.73%
Just bought a couple J20 leaps. The sale price is too good.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I did J20 400s. I think the upside potential is still very substantial and I see lots of opportunities to get out with no loss if the macros get funky. Q4 still looks on target to be a huge catalyst.
Most of my leaps are DITM J20s, which I can roll if ever needed, but I'm looking to increase my leverage a bit here with the J20 400s, in light of the likely Q4 ER effect upon the SP. Delivery and production data should get the ball rolling, but it's less sure than the ER, due to all the FUD out there about gross margins.
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So Brexit seems to be finalizing. Will that be enough to stop the overall Markets collapse? Or more blood running in the streets on Monday?
anthonyj
Stonks
It’s a buy the dip and sell the rip market right now. Every little rally the market has gets sold into and fades. We need a trade deal and interest rate pause to reverse
Yep, both Wednesday and Friday fell prey to the low volume activities of the shorts, assisted on Friday by disappointing macros. Between the first and final minutes of the shortened trading day, over 200,000 shares traded hands, which gave the shorts plenty of opportunity to reload at no penalty to the stock price before and after Friday's trading. Actually, looking at the TSLA daily chart, you don't see the deep icicles of shorting, followed by a quick recovery. Rather, you are more likely looking at subtle "assists" by the shorts, who likely helped the 10:10am dip of the NASDAQ get a bit deeper with TSLA (almost like a cliff dive at TSLA, really), and then capping so as to prevent TSLA from running uphill with the NASDAQ (such as 10:45-50ish).
It's hard to explain a dip in TSLA of over 3.5% solely with a NASDAQ dip of 0.5% or so. Some potentially negative news was Tesla's decision to cut prices in China (and accept smaller margins on sales in that country) while the tariffs are in place. It's likely a good move to keep inventory moving in the country and build good-will with the Chinese people. My understanding is that young adults in China's tech business see Tesla as THE vehicle of choice. Elon is keeping things that way as he hurries to get the Shanghai gigafactory built. Nonetheless, the move gives the bears a reason to cry "demand" again and so part of today's dip was a result of this news.
Another explanation is the simple fact that most other high-flying tech stocks had dropped considerably more than TSLA at the beginning of this week, and so the buying this week has mostly centered on Black-Friday special pricing of stocks other than TSLA. We know that ARK Invest sold TSLA and bought NVDA two days this week. ARK has high opinions of Tesla, but was simply doing what others were doing, which is buying some of the bargain stocks. Low volume this week suggests we don't have a problem with longs selling. Instead, we see investors buying sale-priced stocks elsewhere.
With macros leading TSLA to a steady drop today, short-seller manipulations were likely profitable for those who participated.
The NASDAQ peaked about 11:20am today and then descended into a loss of about half a percent
Short-sellers were tagged with 59.01% of TSLA selling today, suggesting lots of manipulations. Ironically, the telltale icicles were missing, perhaps due to macros providing the downward push and shorts instead selling to minimize the recoveries
Looking at the tech chart, notice that the lower bollinger band defined the bottom of this dip. It's a lot harder to push below that band than work within the band, and so we're bringing this advantage into next week (along with getting rid of the low-volume holiday week, thank you).
You can see that today's dip broke the pattern we've been seeing because each climb and dip combination involved higher lows and higher highs than the combination before. Today TSLA dipped below the previous recovery's low. In due time we will see TSLA position itself for the good news that's coming.
Speaking of good news, Elon has emailed employees that the company aims to produce more than 7K vehicles in a week to show capabilities both in Fremont and at the Gigafactory. We're supposed to see a final push by Nov 28, which is 5 days from Friday. Even if Tesla fails to hit the 7K figure, a production rate in the high 6Ks would be well received and would start refocusing investors on Q4 results.
Sooner or later, the macros are going to climb out of their funk. The Feds really need to look at rapidly-falling oil prices and an ailing stock market and realize that a rate hike in December is a bad idea. The trade war with China will not last. Both countries are feeling the pressure and have reason to cut a deal. Meanwhile, Tesla is profitable and will once again surprise naysayers in Q4, which should propel us to a new All Time High. I'm bullish for 2019 and am riding out this week's dip because it's not going to be a big deal when seen in the rear-view mirror.
I bought some J20 calls near close today because I am confident in Tesla's Q4 results. With higher production numbers, lower costs per car, and a lot of attention on trucking logistics, Tesla is on track to outperform once again. As with everything Tesla, I give lots of wiggle room because surprises do happen but the Tesla team has always managed to deal with them in the past, though at a cost of time. Keep in mind, too, that this stock can turn on a dime and gain even faster than it loses. We're potentially just one email to Tesla employees away from a major catalyst if this week's record attempt succeeds.
For the week, TSLA closed at 325.83, down 28.48 from last Friday's 354.31. We got our answer about the Thanksgiving holiday. Fortunately, Tesla is likely building cars at a record pace this week and this quarter, so we'll reap the benefits in early 2019, if not before. In the meantime, enjoy your weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow down 179 (0.73%)
* NASDAQ down 33 (0.48%)
* TSLA 325.83, down 12.36 (3.65%)
* TSLA volume 4.2M shares
* Oil 50.39, down 4.24 (7.76%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 59.01%
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General view is that Parliament will vote down May's Brexit deal; both the right-wing and the left-wing are against it. If it passes, the DUP has said they'll consider voting no-confidence, dissolving the government. This is definitely not perceived as "stability" by the markets. Perhaps the most likely outcome is a UK general election.
Extremists got them in this mess and now they won't let them out. Sounds familiar. They aren't going to get a better deal. Guess we are screwed until TSLA, AAPL or other tech show some decent numbers in January/February. That is a long time from now and a lot of low volume holiday time in between.
Can't wait to see the explanation for today's trading action. As usual I am clueless.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
My guess: The institutional buyers are back in the office, taking advantage of the low prices on offer after last week's predominantly short-driven trading.
That would also suggest that the people manning the short seller trading desks have worse work-life balance than the long shops. I'm ok with that.
That would also suggest that the people manning the short seller trading desks have worse work-life balance than the long shops. I'm ok with that.
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