Path to widespread adoption

[gvillager]

This is my first post to the forum so be gentle. I apologize if this isn’t the correct forum for this topic, feel free to move if necessary. Since I discovered Tesla a few months ago I’ve done tons of research, visited two stores, and watched every YouTube video I could find. I’m very excited by the possibilities and future of EV’s and will be putting a deposit down for a GenIII ASAP.

Here are my thoughts in regards to things that need to occur before we have widespread adoption.

· EV’s under $40k, comfortably seats 5, with a driving range of 250+ miles. Can’t wait for my GenIII!!

· Standardized universal plug that can be used by all EV’s. This adaptor (J1772, CHAdeMO, etc.) business is a mess.

· Standardized payment option. We should just be able to swipe our credit card and plug in. People would rather not have to worry about carrying around a half of a dozen membership fobs/cards.

· Widespread deployment of Supercharger type of stations at restaurants, shopping malls, and service plaza’s along the interstates. Any place that you could spend an hour to eat lunch/dinner. Complete full range charge within about an hour.

· Widespread deployment of Level 2 chargers at places of employment, hotels, and multi-dwelling units. Something that will provide a full range charge within 6-7 hours.

Things will obviously improve over time.

Your thoughts?

 

[roblab]

Hi, GV.

You seem to be worrying about what you THINK will be a problem. You need to wait and see how easy it is.

Personally, in my humble opinion, I like what Tesla is doing now, and it seems they are generating a goodly amount of business doing what they're doing.

As to chargers, most people owning Teslas don't need em. The ones crying for chargers are Leaf owners and Volt owners who can't make it to the next town without a charge to get back. 250 miles is a long ways to drive, and you'll find you don't need a charge.

I like that I can charge at night, at my 14-50 outlet in my garage. I don't need any connector of any kind. As to the J1772 plug, it is ungainly and large compared to what Tesla has, and I wouldn't want to see it on any Tesla. The adapter is a good idea for the once a year occasion where I might need it, but having driven 8 months and 18,500 miles, I have never needed it yet. Superchargers are great for trips, and home outlets are great for daily use. Hotels let me use their 220 volt 50 amp plug like the one at home. My employer (a hospital) has outlets. There is no need for a bunch of chargers, level 2 or otherwise, if you are just driving around town all day. Tomorrow my tank will be full. I will get a full charge in "6 to 7 hours" without an external charger.

Yeah, adapting to other plugs is a mess. But you don't need to bother. Tesla has it figured out pretty fine. I charge at home during the week, and IF I go more than 250 miles round trip, I charge at Superchargers. By the time you buy your car, they will be ubiquitous. Who cares what Leaf or Mitsu or Volt or Ford or Toyota use? It's like saying you only want one grade of gas sold only by Shell. In a hundred years, maybe they will figure out a universal connector, but we surely don't need one now.

Standard credit card swiping? Why? I already filled up at home. If I'm on a trip, I plan on FREE Supercharger stops. Let those who buy tiny batteries and low power EVs be the ones to worry about where to charge at all those places, and what card to swipe for all those extra charges. I hope you realize that these public chargers aren't free. If they were, you wouldn't need a credit card! And they charge you a BUNCH more than you'd pay for home electrons. Of course, if you have nowhere to plug in, as at an apartment or condo, sure. Arrangements need to be made.

I would guess that once you get a Tesla, all these questions will answer themselves. A lot of smarter people than I am have figured out an elegant solution. Enjoy the ride.

 

[gvillager]

Hi, GV.

You seem to be worrying about what you THINK will be a problem. You need to wait and see how easy it is.

My post wasn't necessarily on Tesla infrastructure but rather EV infrastructure in general. I posted this thread on the TMC forum because Tesla is manufacturing the best EV and deploying the most practical infrastructure (superchargers). However, we won't have widespread adoption with Tesla alone. I'm hopeful that within a few years other manufactures will follow their lead and start producing practical EV's as well. For EV's just to have a 10% marketshare we'll need standardized plugs (doesn't need to be J1772), payment options, and improved infrastructure. These items will only increase Tesla's viability.

Personally, in my humble opinion, I like what Tesla is doing now, and it seems they are generating a goodly amount of business doing what they're doing.

No argument from me there. I love what they are doing.

 

[Al Sherman]

I agree with the OP on hotels. Demand will drive this but it will be slow for now. If you're staying at a certain hotel it will be a major convenience to just plug in to at least 40amp charging so you could do an overnight and get home. I've already had a couple of scenarios when I wanted to take the MS but didn't because a 110 wouldn't have given me enough range to get home after 30 hours or so. My option was, leave my car at the campground and cab it to the hotel. Doable but not convenient.

 

[yobigd20]

Mass changes like this will definitely happen. It just takes a little time for people to get the feel of things and used to the idea that it is legit so they'll work themselves out eventually. It's like a trial and error thing. When someone figures it all out, *coughTeslacough*, others will follow. We'll see the biggest impact when mass production and wider adoption takes off *coughgen3cough* in addition to partnerships with other big names that will help expand the standards and network of super DC chargers. *coughmercedescough*. Damn must have a bug in my throat. Anywho, No need to worry. In 10 years you'll look back on this point in history and laugh. When our kids grow up (well, my kids, as I'm only 32) they'll be like "you used to drive vehicles and sit on top of 20 gallons is explosive fuel? what was wrong with you people???"

 

[PhilBa]

I've been thinking about this for a while now. For me, range is a key factor. While I drive all of about 10-15 a day on average, about once a week I go at least 50 miles in a day and around once a month more than 100. I don't ever want to have to charge any place other than my garage. The Tesla is the first EV that meets that criteria. Even superchargers take time. Americans are used to the 5 minute gas stop. Even a 30 minute fast charge is still incredibly long.

So this lead me to break down consumer driving into categories:

• commute. the american average commute is about 12 miles. I didn't find the median but it's probably higher than that.
• common local. shopping, kids stuff, church, etc The average is probably less than 10 miles a day. Median, a bit higher.
• extraordinary. Day trips, some shopping "expeditions", special events, family visits. Probably average on the order of 50-75 miles, maybe more.
• road trips. Visit another city, distant friends and relatives.

I believe the last 2 are reasons why people don't buy EVs. Most EVs have small batteries and about 75 miles of range. Having to use a charging station mid-trip is pretty much a non-starter. People may think charge station availability is an issue but the reality is that there are a fair number of them out there. I think charge time is a much bigger issue. If I'm driving to grandma's house for thanksgiving dinner, that last thing I would want to do is stop for 30-60 minutes to charge up. The current reality is that there are a small number of fast chargers out there so even 60 minutes is probably optimistic for the average EV driver.

Road trips are a special case. I think the concept is fairly deeply embedded in the American psyche. There is something about the open road that says freedom to many of us. Given the chaotic state of the charger market at this point and the need to know the location of chargers that you can use with your car, it's no wonder that most Americans reject EVs for road trips. Perhaps someday there will be broadly based fast charger networks. I'm certain that day is not just around the corner.

I do agree with the OP that a sub $40K EV with >250 mile range is key. The current crop of consumer EVs has about 75 miles of range and 16-24KW batteries. Though, to get them to the next level in the compact car form factor we will probably need to see at least a doubling of energy density in battery technology.

Edit: Forgot to note your point about level 2 chargers. The whole Level 1, 2, 3 terminology is simplistic. It's more about current than voltage. We need to have fast DC type chargers. But even those take time that us impatient Americans don't want to spend.

 

[GSP]

This is my first post to the forum so be gentle. I apologize if this isn’t the correct forum for this topic, feel free to move if necessary. Since I discovered Tesla a few months ago I’ve done tons of research, visited two stores, and watched every YouTube video I could find. I’m very excited by the possibilities and future of EV’s and will be putting a deposit down for a GenIII ASAP.

Here are my thoughts in regards to things that need to occur before we have widespread adoption.

· EV’s under $40k, comfortably seats 5, with a driving range of 250+ miles. Can’t wait for my GenIII!!

· Standardized universal plug that can be used by all EV’s. This adaptor (J1772, CHAdeMO, etc.) business is a mess.

· Standardized payment option. We should just be able to swipe our credit card and plug in. People would rather not have to worry about carrying around a half of a dozen membership fobs/cards.

· Widespread deployment of Supercharger type of stations at restaurants, shopping malls, and service plaza’s along the interstates. Any place that you could spend an hour to eat lunch/dinner. Complete full range charge within about an hour.

· Widespread deployment of Level 2 chargers at places of employment, hotels, and multi-dwelling units. Something that will provide a full range charge within 6-7 hours.

Things will obviously improve over time.

Your thoughts?

I think you pretty much nailed it. More J1772 stations at hotels and resorts, and more DC fast chargers are needed now. Cars with over 200 miles for less than $40k will be the next step. Standardized universal DC fast charge plugs will come, perhaps when demand for greater than 150 kW develops.

The next step will be when EVs cost less than ICEs to build and sell, perhaps about 2030 or so. The adoption S-curve will be at the steepest part of the "S" then, like fuel injection was in 1987.

GSP

 

[igotzzoom]

Not to sound flippant (and not being an EV owner myself right now) but I do think a lot of these issues will work themselves out over time. Ironically, I think Tesla may end up setting the universal standard, or having a strong influence on it. If the Gen III car sells in significantly greater volumes than the Model S, it could easily become the highest-volume EV in a short time. For now, it seems like J1772 is the dominant standard, but who's to say it will stay that way? Strategically-located charging stations along highly-traveled routes should address the range issue, especially for Tesla models. I think setting the 200-ish mi range benchmark is a smart one. Sure, at present, it means massive and heavy battery packs, but I think it removes a major obstacle (psychological or real) for many buyers that wouldn't otherwise consider an EV.

 

[PhilBa]

Not to sound flippant (and not being an EV owner myself right now) but I do think a lot of these issues will work themselves out over time. Ironically, I think Tesla may end up setting the universal standard, or having a strong influence on it. If the Gen III car sells in significantly greater volumes than the Model S, it could easily become the highest-volume EV in a short time. For now, it seems like J1772 is the dominant standard, but who's to say it will stay that way? Strategically-located charging stations along highly-traveled routes should address the range issue, especially for Tesla models. I think setting the 200-ish mi range benchmark is a smart one. Sure, at present, it means massive and heavy battery packs, but I think it removes a major obstacle (psychological or real) for many buyers that wouldn't otherwise consider an EV.

For your reading pleasure. It's about 9 months old but still relevant. While Tesla has the simplest and most elegant solution, they simply can't drive the adapter standard unless they drive volume. That means either get one of the big boys on their side or sell a lot more EVs. Neither is going to happen. While Tesla is selling 30% of all EVs (2200/7239 in April), they will need to sell at least 10X to have any hope of driving the standard. And, I can't see any of the big auto makers bowing to Tesla any time soon.

By the way, it does appear that Elon is sandbagging his numbers based on Inside EV's sales reports. If the sales number of 2200 for April is correct, that means their annual run rate is around 26K though March was slightly higher so that could be low. Of course you have to balance that with the European production change over.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

For your reading pleasure. It's about 9 months old but still relevant. While Tesla has the simplest and most elegant solution, they simply can't drive the adapter standard unless they drive volume. That means either get one of the big boys on their side or sell a lot more EVs. Neither is going to happen. While Tesla is selling 30% of all EVs (2200/7239 in April), they will need to sell at least 10X to have any hope of driving the standard. And, I can't see any of the big auto makers bowing to Tesla any time soon.

By the way, it does appear that Elon is sandbagging his numbers based on Inside EV's sales reports. If the sales number of 2200 for April is correct, that means their annual run rate is around 26K though March was slightly higher so that could be low. Of course you have to balance that with the European production change over.

The sales numbers for April were nowhere near 2,200. The factory basically took a week off after Easter and retooled for Multi-Coat Red and for European production. Since then their production rate has been ~400/week. My preliminary estimate for April still stands (as modified now that sales for the last week of March are clear). That means April had sales of between ~1,350 and ~1,450, depending on how many of the new loaner cars were built.

As of two weeks ago (when I last looked) there was no real evidence of Tesla having accelerated production in the first half of May either (well.. only a small chance anyways since deliveries are a lagging indicator). Until there is such evidence, the only responsible projections must be based on the 400/week production rate that is shown in the data, and which Tesla itself continues to claim.

 

[Jason S]

Random assortment of thoughts follows, no particular order.

- Leaf, iMiev, Volt all use J1772 but at pathetic rates. Their internal chargers are weak when compared to Tesla's.
- Tesla mobile adapter would be a very nice option for the hotels with a few 'spare' 50A circuits, to support the folks with electric cars. BUT the mobile adapter has only a Tesla adapter at the far end.
- I think the Tesla adapter is just J1772, except different form factor so Tesla could also support DC charging on the same port while J1772 does not. I think this is the only reason for the separate form factor. I could be wrong tho.
- Whoever the OEM is for those mobile adapters could sell a whole bunch of them with just J1772 for use with hotels, and eat the market for Leaf and Volt home chargers. And they really should imho.

So L2 chargers aren't really required for easy adoption, just something like the Tesla mobile adapter but with a J1772. Hotels already have the circuits or can easily put one in, but they seem to be scared of a 'purpose built' solution. A NEMA 14-50 can support more things than just electric car charging.

But mostly with a 200 mile range I just don't worry about charging except for where I'm staying overnight. That's the game changer.

 

[PhilBa]

The sales numbers for April were nowhere near 2,200. The factory basically took a week off after Easter and retooled for Multi-Coat Red and for European production. Since then their production rate has been ~400/week. My preliminary estimate for April still stands (as modified now that sales for the last week of March are clear). That means April had sales of between ~1,350 and ~1,450, depending on how many of the new loaner cars were built.

As of two weeks ago (when I last looked) there was no real evidence of Tesla having accelerated production in the first half of May either (well.. only a small chance anyways since deliveries are a lagging indicator). Until there is such evidence, the only responsible projections must be based on the 400/week production rate that is shown in the data, and which Tesla itself continues to claim.

Interesting. Wonder why you and insideevs.com are so far apart.