Poll: Now that they are increasing FSD from $3k to $5k, will you be purchasing it?

[Chris350]

Me?

I'm a tech-head...... So, I went with the FSD.....

Any opportunity to get new software to play with is worth the 3k to me....

So.... Let it be years till it hits 100% (if it ever does).... I just look forward to being on the tech edge and getting to play with new FSD features along the way....

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I'm firmly against Tesla even selling the FSD package, but I might get it.

Why? Especially when I don't believe FSD is even possible with the current sensor hardware?

The main thing is I think Tesla is going to upgrade the AP computer, and this necessity is likely part of why they're increasing the post purchase price. Keep in mind that a very low percentage (somewhere around 10%) of AP2/AP2.5 customers actually purchased the FSD package.

So having FSD assures me that I'll likely get that upgrade for free. We know factually that NVidia has been doing some amazing things on the AI computing front.

The second reason is it doesn't really need to do that much to be worth the $3K. We really don't know a whole lot about what Tesla plans to release to buyers of FSD.

In a way it's a gamble/bet that it's going to be worth something. Or another way of looking at it would be FOMO. It would suck if they got some cool thing, and I had to spend $5K out of savings to get it.

Now keep in mind I say this as someone who isn't truly that great at keeping/saving money. I just bought a self-inflating, self-powered paddle board for $2K. So I don't advise people to follow the logic I sometimes I use when buying things.

 

[RDoc]

So you think FSD is a myth or do you still think it's incredibly far off?

Can I choose all of the above?

 

[barjohn]

@JeffK that is not evidence of anything being used. Go to a stop light when you are in heavy traffic. Now look at your display showing the cars in your lane and the adjacent lane. Do they move around even though you can see they are standing still? Do they appear and disappear even though you can plainly see they are still there? If those images were based on the camera images would that be happening? I don't think so. Most likely, those are radar plotted returns with a car symbol super imposed on the plotted location. Because of reflections and interference from other radar units ghosting images are plotted and appear and disappear as the system tries to determine what is real and what isn't. If it fused the camera image it would know which were real. In fact, better would be to use the camera image and fuse the radar data as additional confirmation. When the displayed images become rock solid and reflect what you can visually confirm with your eyes I will believe they are using the cameras as shown in the image you displayed.

 

[Lloyd]

The price change made no difference to me. I ordered what I was going to a year ago.

 

[MXWing]

Me?

I'm a tech-head...... So, I went with the FSD.....

Any opportunity to get new software to play with is worth the 3k to me....

So.... Let it be years till it hits 100% (if it ever does).... I just look forward to being on the tech edge and getting to play with new FSD features along the way....

^^^^ THIS GUY GETS IT

Hell to the no on a neighbors autonomy better than his.

 

[ℬête Noire]

The second reason is it doesn't really need to do that much to be worth the $3K. We really don't know a whole lot about what Tesla plans to release to buyers of FSD.

Yes. One upside to having ordered AWD is I'm likely to have time to see what this feature is before my order change window closes.

Talking up FSD as "Level 5 will be here" still rubs me the wrong way. A lot. And no real getting away from that because it's baked right into the acronym. However seeing what kind of functionality they're going to use the umbrella for could actually sway me....in spite of the name and the hype.

 

[Electroman]

if Tesla can provide level 3 on freeways and in stop and go, that is worth the $$ to me

What does "Level 3 on freeways in stop and go" mean?

 

[MarkS22]

What does "Level 3 on freeways in stop and go" mean?

It means the car can take over completely under a very specific set of conditions. In this case it would mean:

(1) Slower than 25mph
(2) On a divided highway without traffic signals
(3) Surrounded by enough cars to support lane holding and speed
(4) Possibly on a "whitelisted" road only which has been mapped enough by other Tesla vehicles and deemed "safe." It likely wouldn't just work on any highway traffic everywhere.
(5) No rain or snow

Under these specific circumstances, it's reasonable to think they'd allow hands and eyes free. For example, watching a show on the display that can flash "take over immediately" if necessary.

I believe current Autopilot is very close to handling this safely. It really just needs to react to other cars trying to change lanes in front of you better. I don't think we'll see Level 5 Full Self Drive for a good five years. However, I think they'll release features like the above before that to justify $3,000.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Under these specific circumstances, it's reasonable to think they'd allow hands and eyes free. For example, watching a show on the display that can flash "take over immediately" if necessary.

This is my biggest concern with Level 3. Getting my brain back into the here and now of driving mode and adequate situational awareness. There's decent study data that suggests it takes several seconds to reach a state where you can react with competency. It's a big question lingering whether Level 3 is inherently unsafe in a way that isn't mitigable, it might end up being the uncanny valley of autonomous vehicles.

 

[chillaban]

What does "Level 3 on freeways in stop and go" mean?

Similar to what Audi is trying to offer in the 2018 A8 in Europe -- conditional unsupervised autonomy in certain circumstances.

Audi requires basically 3 lead cars (one in each lane), less than ~37mph, and presumably on certain types of mapped roads too. The specifics are unclear.

You'll need to give graceful handoffs between L3 mode and L2 mode (e.g. it can't just be OMG TAKE OVER IMMEDIATELY)...

But I do agree that Tesla seems pretty close to that. Apart from close-range cut-ins, it's doing really well in these situations.

 

[CameronB]

Oh, and the cameras have more resolution than the human eye.

This scientist says the human eye has about 576 megapixels - which, if true, would be nearly an order of magnitude more than the Tesla cameras.

What Is the Resolution of the Human Eye?

But that aside, I agree that humans don't have eyes in the back of our heads (and plenty of blindspots even with mirrors), access to a forward radar or ultrasonics. Machines/AI should eventually be (significantly) better drivers than all of us. It will happen. But when? That is the $64K question of course.

 

[MarkS22]

This is my biggest concern with Level 3. Getting my brain back into the here and now of driving mode and adequate situational awareness. There's decent study data that suggests it takes several seconds to reach a state where you can react with competency. It's a big question lingering whether Level 3 is inherently unsafe in a way that isn't mitigable, it might end up being the uncanny valley of autonomous vehicles.

I think that's why speed is crucial. If you're going <25mph in traffic on a road designed for 50mph+, there's not a whole lot that can happen where the car couldn't stop as quickly as a human. I'd argue any situations where there's still an accident would be something random (like another car swerves) or intentional where no human would be able to reasonably avoid it. At least, that's where I think it needs to be to release it. And I think that's possible using the current hardware suite.

Being under 25mph also drastically limits the potential for harm even if it does fail. When I say "Take Over Immediately," I don't mean like under a second. I'd expect a good five seconds or so. Like, it detects the traffic is easing and the speed goes over 25mph, it will require you to take over.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think a Level 3 system would be worth $3k, which is why I bought. I am not expecting level 4 or 5 at all, if Tesla can provide level 3 on freeways and in stop and go, that is worth the $$ to me. Audi is releasing a Level 3 system for stop and go under 25 mph, which is still huge if you live here in So Cal and drive the freeways often. Even if Tesla just got us that capability, it is probably worth $3k to me.

The thing is EAP is advertised to be on-ramp to off-ramp self driving. How will they differentiate FSD from EAP on the highway? Will the car just occasionally run into a fire trucks or gore points when on EAP but not when FSD is enabled? I guess that would get me to upgrade but it could open Tesla up to lawsuits and bad press.

 

[MarkS22]

The thing is EAP is advertised to be on-ramp to off-ramp self driving. How will they differentiate FSD from EAP on the highway? Will the car just occasionally run into a fire trucks or gore points when on EAP but not when FSD is enabled? I guess that would get me to upgrade but it could open Tesla up to lawsuits and bad press.

I don’t think EAP will ever allow you to go hands free, with the exception of limited Summon which is grandfathered in. It’s even possible they’re getting more aggressive on the nags to make the FSD option (like the example above in traffic) more enticing.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don’t think EAP will ever allow you to go hands free, with the exception of limited Summon which is grandfathered in. It’s even possible they’re getting more aggressive on the nags to make the FSD option (like the example above in traffic) more enticing.

So, the only difference on the highway will be the nags? That would be super annoying to know you have FSD on the highway but you have to touch the steering wheel for no reason at all. I anticipate the "auto-pilot buddy" will be very popular!

 

[AustinPowers]

So you think FSD is a myth or do you still think it's incredibly far off?

I would say the latter.
Nothing I have seen up to now - from vehicles that are road-legal that is - makes me think that FSD is anywhere near ready for market. Imho it will take at least another five, probably even ten years before the tech is even halfway reliable and trustworthy enough that legislators will be willing to allow it on public roads - at least over here in Europe/Germany. The US seems more progressive on new tech in general and more willing to take on risks. I for one am happy that we over here are more cautious when it comes to such things.

 

[AustinPowers]

What does "Level 3 on freeways in stop and go" mean?

That would interest me as well. Any car with TACC can do stop and go on the highway, no?
Even the e-Golf I ordered recently has that as part of its driver assist package plus, which incidently is a less than 1,800 Euro option, plus it includes dynamic light assist, lane assist, blind spot monitoring, city emergency braking, burglar alarm, and several other goodies.
Far better value for money to me than a 3K (or 5K) promise that at some unspecified time in the future the car might get some cool self driving features that might or might not be even road-legal.

 

[EchoDelta]

Have a source on that. From my understanding, human eye have some ridiculously high resolution, which is why we can see pixels on 1080p monitors from not too far away, whereas the tesla cameras aren't super high res

And then there’s this little thing called a brain. But I thought his whole pgph was sarcasm, right?

 

[EchoDelta]

Beyond the resolution debate, what about colorspace? How many bits are the cameras vs the human eye? I, for one, am not Impressed with the colorspace of the rear view camera .. .

Or maybe the 20 or so equivalent stops that the human eye offers for dynamic range?

These linear comparisons don’t work well, and are mostly irrelevant. you are omitting the brains capability to color interpolate, white balance correct, multisample, etc
Same thing w resolution, your brain does interpolation, extrapolation, POV shift, and can rapidly create 3D models based on the training from everything it’s seen before.

You don’t see with your eye, you perceive with your mind. Matching human perception in an environment that requires almost real time practopoiesis is a tall order. Not impossible, but not trivial.