Poll: Tesla US EV Federal Tax Credit ends Q1 or Q2 ???

[shrspeedblade]

It also gives them a fleet of cars that can be CPOs/floor models next year when the tax credit expires that will probably sell for a little less than the full 3LR-tax credits would for the value shoppers who didn't place reservations two years ago.

 

[wdolson]

I know that just within the last couple of weeks, the Seattle showroom got a Model 3. The Bellevue one has had a Model 3 for a few months now. So I wouldn't be surprised if this is another way to use production cars without breaking the 200k mark. Plus loaners. Would be great if Tesla could always have a Tesla available for loaner instead of renting an ICE.

Definitely. The couple of times I've had an ICE loaner, it was a pain to retrain my instincts to drive an ICE again. Especially on the Portland freeway.

After hitting the 200K they could sell the demo cars for full price pretty easily.

 

[dhanson865]

Definitely. The couple of times I've had an ICE loaner, it was a pain to retrain my instincts to drive an ICE again. Especially on the Portland freeway.

After hitting the 200K they could sell the demo cars for full price pretty easily.

Full price minus a token amount for mileage would be fair. Would the dollar per mile metric work? Maybe with a cap that the mileage discount can't exceed the destination fee.

 

[wdolson]

Full price minus a token amount for mileage would be fair. Would the dollar per mile metric work? Maybe with a cap that the mileage discount can't exceed the destination fee.

For inventory cars I think Tesla normally reduces the price at $1 per mile on the odometer. But I don't think there is any requirement they do that.

 

[alseTrick]

I would prefer Tesla offer a reduced price for an inventory car, but I'd have to consider it even at "MSRP" if it meant I was eligible for the $7500 tax credit when I otherwise wouldn't have been.

Does Tesla replace worn seats, scratched console lids/screens, etc., in that situation?

 

[Barsad]

Since when is a prediction of future deliveries a promise? Someone's inflated expectations or misinterpretation of what was actually said do not change what was actually stated.


It may not be fair but it was their stated intention from the beginning so crying foul two years later is a bit disingenuous.

Seems like splitting hairs, but fine, a prediction is not a promise. In the world of business, the CEOs who make predictions must be hold accountable for them... otherwise they're not much better than snake oil salesmen. You would have to find me an article from March 2016 or earlier where Elon Musk explicitly states that nobody's getting a standard model for 3 years... had he stated that truth, there would be far less reservation holders (and all of the stock price increase that came with it, and all of the wealth that stock price generated for Musk and every Tesla employee). So I am definitely going to cry foul when a sales pitch is so far off, and it is the farthest thing from "a bit disingenuous."
I'm looking forward to seeing your evidence of Tesla's "stated intention from the beginning," dated March 2016 or before.
Best,
JG

 

[dsvick]

Seems like splitting hairs, but fine, a prediction is not a promise. In the world of business, the CEOs who make predictions must be hold accountable for them... otherwise they're not much better than snake oil salesmen.

Companies make forward looking statement all the time when they publish their guidance for the coming year, then they revise it continuously throughout the year. So, Elon making production estimates on twitter should be held to a higher standard than corporate financial documents submitted to the goevernement?

You would have to find me an article from March 2016 or earlier where Elon Musk explicitly states that nobody's getting a standard model for 3 years... had he stated that truth, there would be far less reservation holders (and all of the stock price increase that came with it, and all of the wealth that stock price generated for Musk and every Tesla employee). So I am definitely going to cry foul when a sales pitch is so far off, and it is the farthest thing from "a bit disingenuous."
I'm looking forward to seeing your evidence of Tesla's "stated intention from the beginning," dated March 2016 or before.
Best,
JG

No, he didn't explicitly state when base model cars would be made, but the higher optioned ones have always been planned to be first.
From before the first reveal: Tesla Model 3 Debuts March 31st, Higher Options Cars Made First

 

[Dr. J]

In the world of business, the CEOs who make predictions must be hold accountable for them... otherwise they're not much better than snake oil salesmen.

Generally speaking, I vote "otherwise."

 

[Barsad]

Companies make forward looking statement all the time when they publish their guidance for the coming year, then they revise it continuously throughout the year. So, Elon making production estimates on twitter should be held to a higher standard than corporate financial documents submitted to the goevernement?

Yes, a person of integrity needs to be careful about what he Tweets, whether he's the president, the CEO or Joe Lithium. Unlike financial documents, Tweets are actually read by the public and can heavily influence the market. Corporate financials are mostly bogus and just there for compliance, not information.

No, he didn't explicitly state when base model cars would be made, but the higher optioned ones have always been planned to be first.
From before the first reveal: Tesla Model 3 Debuts March 31st, Higher Options Cars Made First

Nice article, but the confusion when you read it is obvious:
In the same article (which had multiple undated "Updates" added to it after publication) where he says the higher options come first, there is this:
"So, it appears that the “everyman’s” affordable Tesla will have to wait at least until 2018.

However, Musk did note there was some issues/confusion with the wider media on early Model X pricing reports, as initial “Signature Series” models misrepresented the true price. We should note that the “pricing pain” might have been a bit self-inflicted, as Tesla did not release any other trim or pricing information on the all-electric SUV until long after the Signature pricing was announced.

Update: For the Model 3, CEO Elon Musk says there will be no “Signature Series” cars, and $1,000 deposits will be taken March 31st in stores, April 1st online (full details)"

So, when he said no "Signature Series" he wasn't talking about a higher optioned car? Or was he? Who knows, it was impossible to parse what he meant. Again, public pronouncements and predictions should mean something and be directed at truthful production cycles rather than marketing buzz. I've now spent more time than I really wanted to on Musk Tweets. I'm sure he's a great guy, I hope he is Tweeting on Mars by the end of his life.

 

[kengchang]

Yes, a person of integrity needs to be careful about what he Tweets, whether he's the president, the CEO or Joe Lithium. Unlike financial documents, Tweets are actually read by the public and can heavily influence the market. Corporate financials are mostly bogus and just there for compliance, not information.


Nice article, but the confusion when you read it is obvious:
In the same article (which had multiple undated "Updates" added to it after publication) where he says the higher options come first, there is this:
"So, it appears that the “everyman’s” affordable Tesla will have to wait at least until 2018.

However, Musk did note there was some issues/confusion with the wider media on early Model X pricing reports, as initial “Signature Series” models misrepresented the true price. We should note that the “pricing pain” might have been a bit self-inflicted, as Tesla did not release any other trim or pricing information on the all-electric SUV until long after the Signature pricing was announced.

Update: For the Model 3, CEO Elon Musk says there will be no “Signature Series” cars, and $1,000 deposits will be taken March 31st in stores, April 1st online (full details)"

So, when he said no "Signature Series" he wasn't talking about a higher optioned car? Or was he? Who knows, it was impossible to parse what he meant. Again, public pronouncements and predictions should mean something and be directed at truthful production cycles rather than marketing buzz. I've now spent more time than I really wanted to on Musk Tweets. I'm sure he's a great guy, I hope he is Tweeting on Mars by the end of his life.

When Musk tweets, at that moment Musk has reasonable belief that Tesla can achieve whatever he tweets. That's not fraud.

Signature Series is fully loaded car with every option bundled in and you cannot remove anything.

 

[Barsad]

When Musk tweets, at that moment Musk has reasonable belief that Tesla can achieve whatever he tweets. That's not fraud.

Signature Series is fully loaded car with every option bundled in and you cannot remove anything.

No one mentioned "fraud." Integrity.
JG

 

[renim]

Seems like splitting hairs, but fine, a prediction is not a promise. In the world of business, the CEOs who make predictions must be hold accountable for them... otherwise they're not much better than snake oil salesmen. You would have to find me an article from March 2016 or earlier where Elon Musk explicitly states that nobody's getting a standard model for 3 years... had he stated that truth, there would be far less reservation holders (and all of the stock price increase that came with it, and all of the wealth that stock price generated for Musk and every Tesla employee). So I am definitely going to cry foul when a sales pitch is so far off, and it is the farthest thing from "a bit disingenuous."
I'm looking forward to seeing your evidence of Tesla's "stated intention from the beginning," dated March 2016 or before.
Best,
JG

Every time that Elon Musk stated the price was $35k without rebate and Mary Barra stated the price was $35k with rebate.
did you ever ask yourself why? why wouldn't a grand promoter like elon musk not state the price after rebate like the rest of the industry.
the answer should be obvious.

 

[dsvick]

Nice article, but the confusion when you read it is obvious:
In the same article (which had multiple undated "Updates" added to it after publication) where he says the higher options come first, there is this:
"So, it appears that the “everyman’s” affordable Tesla will have to wait at least until 2018.

And there is every chance it will be available in 2018. I'm not sure what your issue is with that.

Update: For the Model 3, CEO Elon Musk says there will be no “Signature Series” cars, and $1,000 deposits will be taken March 31st in stores, April 1st online (full details)"

So, when he said no "Signature Series" he wasn't talking about a higher optioned car? Or was he? Who knows, it was impossible to parse what he meant.

It is very easy to parse what he meant. The "Signature Series" for the model S and model X was a fully optioned vehicle with the signature red paint job. So when he says there won't be one for the model 3 he is referring to a very specific thing, not just optioned cars in general.

 

[FlatSix911]

Companies make forward looking statement all the time when they publish their guidance for the coming year, then they revise it continuously throughout the year. So, Elon making production estimates on twitter should be held to a higher standard than corporate financial documents submitted to the goevernement?

No, he didn't explicitly state when base model cars would be made, but the higher optioned ones have always been planned to be first.
From before the first reveal: Tesla Model 3 Debuts March 31st, Higher Options Cars Made First

More expensive models coming soon ... Tesla to open Model 3 orders and reveal specs of dual motor and performance versions next week

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has confirmed that the automaker plans to open orders and release the specs of dual motor and performance versions of the Model 3 next week. Currently, Tesla is still only producing the Model 3 with the Long Range battery pack, rear-wheel-drive, and the premium interior package.

The idea is to limit option to streamline production while the company is still trying to ramp up its manufacturing capacity. Musk already said that they are planning to start producing the dual motor powertrain in July after Tesla reaches its target of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week at the end of the second quarter.

It’s still not a given that Tesla will reach the target, but Musk now seems determined to bring new powertrains to production as he confirms that they will open the orders for them as soon as next week:

 

[wdolson]

Ryan McCaffrey does the Ride the Lightning Telsa podcast. He posts links here on the forum to his podcast. He has the most journalistic approach among Tesla podcasts. Good listening if you have about an hour a week.

 

[Barsad]

And there is every chance it will be available in 2018. I'm not sure what your issue is with that.

"Every chance"? You really have learned from the School of Elon (say something without saying anything). If you're not sure why I have an issue with language like "every chance," then you probably didn't read my original post.
Look, despite the fact that I feel Tesla has been too slippery on the production information front, I am of course hoping that you are right and I have a standard car by Dec. 31, 2018. The current facts on the ground seem to really lean against your prediction on that one, but I am going to reply to this post on Jan. 1, 2019 and give you a big "you were RIGHT, thank you" or... well, the opposite of that.
JG

 

[Barsad]

Every time that Elon Musk stated the price was $35k without rebate and Mary Barra stated the price was $35k with rebate.
did you ever ask yourself why? why wouldn't a grand promoter like elon musk not state the price after rebate like the rest of the industry.
the answer should be obvious.

So he gets a pass on integrity and accountability because he's such a grand promoter? I don't get the argument.
JG

 

[renim]

So he gets a pass on integrity and accountability because he's such a grand promoter? I don't get the argument.
JG

Elon did not know if M3 demand would be sufficient not to require the $35k unit or not, until after reservations were made, but he was hoping Tesla could use up all its credits before the $35k unit was released, because that implies more model S sales, more model X sales, more high margin model 3 sales.

so he always couched the model 3 as 35k price as not including rebate, (unlike model S pre-orders that were with rebate).

mary barra with the bolt (like elon musk with the model S) was/is selling a car after the $7,500 rebate

.

 

[JZtheHW]

In US, Tesla delivered 6250 model 3 in May, bring total 193,880 EV they sold in US so far, 9,220 S/X/3 were sold last month. very close to 200,000 limits for the full federal tax credit. The full federal tax credit will be half starting Q4 2018.

 

[FloridaJohn]

In US, Tesla delivered 6250 model 3 in May, bring total 193,880 EV they sold in US so far, 9,220 S/X/3 were sold last month. very close to 200,000 limits for the full federal tax credit. The full federal tax credit will be half starting Q4 2018.

I don’t know. How many cars do you think they will deliver in the next two weeks? Halting deliveries for the last two weeks of the quarter should be easy.