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Poll: Tesla US EV Federal Tax Credit ends Q1 or Q2 ???

Will the US EV Federal Tax Credit reach it's 200,000 phaseout milestone in Q1 or Q2 2018?

  • Q1 2018

    Votes: 8 8.4%
  • Q2 2018

    Votes: 87 91.6%

  • Total voters
    95
  • Poll closed .
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I think Tesla is going to have to get the information out pretty quickly once they know for sure which quarter it will land in... if they are manipulating deliveries in order to extend the credit then this is already something they know and I'm not sure why they would keep the information internal.

A lot of people at this point are basing their decision to configure/order based on what portion of the tax credit will still remain in Q3/Q4.

My assumption is that informal numbers will be all over the web on Mon Jul 2. and a formal announcement at close of business on Fri Jul 6 so the stock market is closed for the weekend to digest the news.
 
What % of US & Canada stores don't have a model 3 yet? Elon also mentioned getting some Model 3's out there for test drive. Filling out the rest of the stores could buy a couple hundred builds to stay under 200k. Heck if they wanted to build a few loaners (if they even have room)...

Heck for fun they could build a few to send overseas for display purposes only just to tease people, haha...
 
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What % of US & Canada stores don't have a model 3 yet? Elon also mentioned getting some Model 3's out there for test drive. Filling out the rest of the stores could buy a couple hundred builds to stay under 200k. Heck if they wanted to build a few loaners (if they even have room)...

Heck for fun they could build a few to send overseas for display purposes only just to tease people, haha...
Atlanta does not.

Dan
 
Just updated with May 2018 deliveries ...The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
The numbers confirm that Tesla must sell less than 6,000 cars in June to stay under the 200K limit...
Highly unlikely given the current Model S/X sales rate of 6,200 in March and not including any Model 3 deliveries :cool:

Tesla – 194,021 (estimated, including Tesla Roadsters not yet shown on the graph)

Taking into consideration the numbers and pace of sales in the past months, Tesla should hit 200,000 first, in the second quarter of this year


 
I think Tesla is going to have to get the information out pretty quickly once they know for sure which quarter it will land in... if they are manipulating deliveries in order to extend the credit then this is already something they know and I'm not sure why they would keep the information internal.

A lot of people at this point are basing their decision to configure/order based on what portion of the tax credit will still remain in Q3/Q4.
My assumption is that informal numbers will be all over the web on Mon Jul 2. and a formal announcement at close of business on Fri Jul 6 so the stock market is closed for the weekend to digest the news.
I don't think they need to do it that soon. As long as they announce in enough time that anyone thinking about configuring can do so and still qualify for the full credit. Allowing for a rush of orders when it's announced I'd say they can wait to early to mid August and still give people time to configure and take delivery.
 
I don't think they need to do it that soon. As long as they announce in enough time that anyone thinking about configuring can do so and still qualify for the full credit. Allowing for a rush of orders when it's announced I'd say they can wait to early to mid August and still give people time to configure and take delivery.

They do need to do it that soon. They are currently giving people 12-16 week estimates for delivery. If you order AWD in mid July after getting confirmation from Tesla the tax credit is intact, you might not take delivery of the vehicle before the end of the year if there are any further delays.
 
They do need to do it that soon. They are currently giving people 12-16 week estimates for delivery. If you order AWD in mid July after getting confirmation from Tesla the tax credit is intact, you might not take delivery of the vehicle before the end of the year if there are any further delays.

You are exactly right, Tesla needs to be upfront about this issue as soon as possible.. IF Tesla does deliver the 200kth car in June, then essentially the only way you're getting the full $7500 tax credit is if you have already configured and ordered your car. Any new orders at this point likely wouldn't be delivered until Q4, and Q4 only gets $3750 tax credit IF the 200kth car is delivered in June.
 
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You are exactly right, Tesla needs to be upfront about this issue as soon as possible.. IF Tesla does deliver the 200kth car in June, then essentially the only way you're getting the full $7500 tax credit is if you have already configured and ordered your car. Any new orders at this point likely wouldn't be delivered until Q4, and Q4 only gets $3750 tax credit IF the 200kth car is delivered in June.

I expect that those ordering RWD cars will get them in the 4-6 week time frame that we've seen up until this last quarter. So, if you order RWD in mid to late July you should still get your car before the end of Q3. I'm more concerned about the tens of thousands of us who have been holding out for dual motor and would still like to get the full tax credit.
 
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I saw a truck load of M3s heading east of CT yesterday, so they are still delivering cars in June. The truck had 7 Model 3s and 1 white Model X. It's definitely not staying in CT since Tesla is not allowed to sell in CT. 4 MSM color, 1 silver, 1 red, and 1 blue Model 3s. Good luck for those that are waiting.
 
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I saw a truck load of M3s heading east of CT yesterday, so they are still delivering cars in June. The truck had 7 Model 3s and 1 white Model X. It's definitely not staying in CT since Tesla is not allowed to sell in CT. 4 MSM color, 1 silver, 1 red, and 1 blue Model 3s. Good luck for those that are waiting.
Some of those being shipped out may be going to sit in a large lot somewhere so they are available on July 1 to deliver. I don't know, haven't heard of any large lots outside of Fremont area, but it could happen. :)
 
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Tesla will be making some US deliveries this month. They need to stay below 6000, but months over 6000 are very, very recent. February 2018 was only 4600 cars. March was over 60K, but April was barely over 6K. All they need is deliveries look more like February than May to stay under 6K this month. Tesla almost certainly knows exactly where they are in the delivery numbers. The biggest danger is someone locally going rogue and delivering some cars that should be delivered next month.

They want to move as many cars as they can to get up to but not cross the line. Not only do deliveries this month cut down on the stored inventory at the end of the month, it's also revenue this month.
 
Some of those being shipped out may be going to sit in a large lot somewhere so they are available on July 1 to deliver. I don't know, haven't heard of any large lots outside of Fremont area, but it could happen. :)

There is a brand new huge lot just built at the sparks, NV gigafactory. (The pic is from just before they paved it, but it is already paved now.

They wouldn't even have to pay for it's use (they already own the land).

gigafactory-1-parking-lot-2.jpg


tesla-gigafactory-1-new-lot-e1528404675346.jpg
 
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I talked to sales at Palo Alto, they actually don't care hold to any deliveries since they need to hit quotas for Q2 so the pushing for deliveries especially S/X

Not sure what that means. Wouldn't a sale for the store be when someone comes in to order? It would be up to Tesla Corporate when they deliver the cars to the delivery centers. I doubt if Tesla decides they want to stay below 200k, they would give quotas (or the cars) for deliveries to the local centers to put them over 200k.
 
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Not sure what that means. Wouldn't a sale for the store be when someone comes in to order? It would be up to Tesla Corporate when they deliver the cars to the delivery centers. I doubt if Tesla decides they want to stay below 200k, they would give quotas (or the cars) for deliveries to the local centers to put them over 200k.
Exactly. It's not like there are separately owned dealerships with their own sets of goals from the manufacturer. If Tesla corporate says "Do NOT deliver these cars you are receiving until July 1", you just don't do it. You let them sit there. You go over them with a fine toothed comb to get any issues sorted out so you don't have to deal with a rejection or customer complaint, but you do not, in any way, deliver that car.
 
There is a brand new huge lot just built at the sparks, NV gigafactory. (The pic is from just before they paved it, but it is already paved now.

They wouldn't even have to pay for it's use (they already own the land).
I'd forgotten about that. Can easily store a few thousand, it seems. Definitely a place to ship them if they don't already have the space available.
 
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