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POLL: Will FSD Beta be released to everyone in North America this year and still be so at the end of the year?

Will FSD Beta be released to everyone in N.A. this year and still be so at the end of the year?

  • Total voters
    69
  • Poll closed .
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Daniel in SD

Daniel in SD

(supervised)
Jan 25, 2018
10,391
17,018
San Diego
#1
At the Cyber Rodeo Elon said “The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we’re able to go to wide beta for all full self-driving customers in North America this year”
So they're able to do it, but will they?
Or in other words, will @boonedocks be the only one who predicted correctly in the October 2020 poll?
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POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?

Testing out the wisdom of crowds.:p "Quantum Leap" FSD is defined as the ability to legally drive from Bel Air to SpaceX in Hawthorne without driver intervention on at least a third of attempts. Positive confirmation does not count as an intervention but declining confirmation does.
teslamotorsclub.com teslamotorsclub.com
I'm making the poll a little trickier by adding the caveat that it must remain available at the end of the year. :p You never know what's going to happen in Canada...
 
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Reactions: boonedocks
#3
Daniel in SD said:
At the Cyber Rodeo Elon said “The Tesla Autopilot team and AI team has done an incredible job building real-world AI and we’re able to go to wide beta for all full self-driving customers in North America this year”
So they're able to do it, but will they?
Or in other words, will @boonedocks[/B] be the only one who predicted correctly in the October 2020 poll?
teslamotorsclub.com

POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?

Testing out the wisdom of crowds.:p "Quantum Leap" FSD is defined as the ability to legally drive from Bel Air to SpaceX in Hawthorne without driver intervention on at least a third of attempts. Positive confirmation does not count as an intervention but declining confirmation does.
teslamotorsclub.com teslamotorsclub.com
I'm making the poll a little trickier by adding the caveat that it must remain available at the end of the year. :p You never know what's going to happen in Canada...
Click to expand...

And I thought that I was being optimistic 🥺🤣

I have been participating in Teslas AP program since May 2015…..not as OG as some here but been party to @ElonMusk ‘s prognostications for quite a while now….
4 Model S’
1 AP 1.0
2 pre-paid FSD
1 renting FSD
and a lonely X lol
 
Last edited:
#5
Supcom said:
Despite CEO puffery, don't they need to make some real progress on FSD beta releases first?
Click to expand...
Why?
The number of errors FSD Beta makes is not directly related to safety. In fact the worse it is the fewer people that will use it (the Smart Summon approach to safety) and the more vigilant they will be monitoring it. The better it is the more people who will "trust it" and end up getting bitten. Safety of systems where humans are involved is hard to predict.
And of course what might really matter is the perception of safety. FSD Beta might be safe when released to everyone but it may both cause collisions and prevent collisions. People will of course focus on the collisions that it causes.
 
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#8
i think it will, with the cavot they may remove some of the more difficult functionality. they already do this with AP/NoA. if for no other reason then public pressure to produce something lol... ie... when your route takes you through something it can't handle it will either reroute around it or give you that "unsupported maneuver" message when approaching the problem area. but of course time will tell.
 
#13
EVNow said:
If the Toronto street cars are still off limits … is the correct answer yes or no ?
Click to expand...
The correct answer is yes. But I didn't really think about a threshold of capability to still consider it FSD Beta (aka "automatic driving on city streets") vs. "Autosteer on city streets"
I suspect it won't be an issue though, I think it's going to be all or nothing. I'm surprised they bothered geofencing it all for Toronto street cars.
 
#16
Daniel in SD said:
I'm surprised it's so lopsided! This is something they could literally do today and there are 9 months left in the year.
Click to expand...
They absolutely could not do it today. The system is not nearly good enough at the moment to provide unfettered access to the masses that will absolutely abuse it and trust it with minimal or no supervision.
 
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Reactions: dbldwn02, Silicon Desert and momo3605
#17
E90alex said:
They absolutely could not do it today. The system is not nearly good enough at the moment to provide unfettered access to the masses that will absolutely abuse it and trust it with minimal or no supervision.
Click to expand...
Is it worse than Smart Summon?
You're basically arguing that they shouldn't release it until it's safer than a human when unsupervised (which Elon did recently say would happen this year). I tend to agree but it does seem that in its current form very few people would trust it. The bigger issue would probably be people trying to do dumb stunts and trying to "see what happens."
 
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