POLL: Will FSD Beta be released to everyone in North America this year and still be so at the end of the year?

[Mardak]

It seems like Tesla believes Yes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762

"Enabled anyone in North America who has purchased FSD to request FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total"

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

"Enabled anyone in North America who has purchased FSD to request FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total"

They can believe that, but it seems that people still have to request, as Tesla says, which the AI Chat bots have deemed authoritatively to not be a wide release.

And remember, for some people the privilege has already been removed (due to abuse most likely), so the “still be so” part is not true.

If they do a release to all FSD owners in the production branch by the end of the year (followed by toggle to enable or whatever) and remove the strikes system or alter it such that removal of privilege is temporary and of well-defined deterministic length, then the yes will have it, with their bold stance.

 

[Supcom]

They can believe that, but it seems that people still have to request, as Tesla says, which the AI Chat bots have deemed authoritatively to not be a wide release.

And remember, for some people the privilege has already been removed (due to abuse most likely), so the “still be so” part is not true.

If they do a release to all FSD owners in the production branch by the end of the year (followed by toggle to enable or whatever) and remove the strikes system or alter it such that removal of privilege is temporary and of well-defined deterministic length, then the yes will have it, with their bold stance.

One thing that has occurred to me is that there is an advantage to Tesla in making FSDb available to everyone as part of the Early Access program instead of releasing it to the production branch. As it stands now, every car using FSDb is required to have data sharing enabled so Tesla can use all of the telemetry and video data, including cabin video. Once they release to the production branch, users can turn that off, which may significantly reduce the data available for evaluation, training and simulation.

 

[JulienW]

One thing that has occurred to me is that there is an advantage to Tesla in making FSDb available to everyone as part of the Early Access program instead of releasing it to the production branch. As it stands now, every car using FSDb is required to have data sharing enabled so Tesla can use all of the telemetry and video data, including cabin video. Once they release to the production branch, users can turn that off, which may significantly reduce the data available for evaluation, training and simulation.

I bet Tesla has more data than they can process now. Hence the removal of the Camera Snapshot button. Conjecture is this is WAY more about realizing more of the FSD income Tesla is sitting on since this is probably not going be a great quarter.

 

[Dewg]

One thing that has occurred to me is that there is an advantage to Tesla in making FSDb available to everyone as part of the Early Access program instead of releasing it to the production branch. As it stands now, every car using FSDb is required to have data sharing enabled so Tesla can use all of the telemetry and video data, including cabin video. Once they release to the production branch, users can turn that off, which may significantly reduce the data available for evaluation, training and simulation.

Makes me wonder if there will still be a Beta group once it goes to production. Seems likely to keep testing new features before rolling to general code branch.

 

[Twiglett]

I bet Tesla has more data than they can process now. Hence the removal of the Camera Snapshot button. Conjecture is this is WAY more about realizing more of the FSD income Tesla is sitting on since this is probably not going be a great quarter.

that's an odd outlook. Most of the news I've read is that the quarter is going to be extremely good. Remaining inventory down to a few hundred cars, everything else is sold. None of that points to a poor Q4.
Guess we will find out soon eh

 

[2101Guy]

if its already been asked/answered, pardon, but basic question: Seems to be a large delta between the 1 million and the 285k. No? Or am I misinterpreting?

 

[EVNow]

Conjecture is this is WAY more about realizing more of the FSD income Tesla is sitting on since this is probably not going be a great quarter.

In general wouldn't matter either way as the market will treat it as a "one time revenue". Oh BTW, almost everyone agrees its going to be record quarter the questions are more around next quarter (or '23 as a whole).

 

[YNoVA]

Thanks for the mark of respect and for calling in the expert.

However, this does not require expert adjudication.

No, as we all know, FSD Beta is definitively not in wide release. They still have a few days though.

The wisdom of crowds got it right again. Amazing. (So far. Again, a few days for them to do a true wide release, if they wish. Does not have to be V11.)

Or did I miss something, and requests are no longer needed? I have to say I have not been paying attention. Anyway, if it does not need to be requested and is going out to everyone with the requisite hardware as part of the merged software release, yes, it would be in wide release. But I have not been following. In my car I don’t see the opt-in/opt-out, so is that not needed anymore? I think you always had to ask to be removed by emailing though….so I have no idea.

Is everyone with FSD on Early Access Program 2022.44.25.2 now?

It is in wide release.. you don't need the previous requirements of 100 AP miles or an 80+ safety score. Unless your definition of wide release means something else.

I downloaded 2022.44.25.3 on 12/21. I then saw that FSD Beta was on 2022.44.25.5 and decided to subscribe to FSD on 12/23 in the morning. After subscribing I went to my car and Opt'd into the beta.

I took my car out for lunch so I only had about 6 miles of driving on the safety score, and I managed to get a 30 safety score because I got a FCW in those 6 miles lol. But later in that evening my car started downloading 2022.44.25.5 and lo' and behold I was in the beta.

Been using the beta for the last few days now and I gotta say it's impressive.

So as long as your software version is below 2022.44.25.5, you should be able to get into the beta relatively quickly after subscribing and opt'ing in.

 

[rpiolends]

I believe FSD beta is open to everybody, but I only have my experience to share.

I downloaded 2022.44.25.3 on 12/21. I then saw that FSD Beta was on 2022.44.25.5 and decided to subscribe to FSD on 12/23 in the morning. After subscribing I went to my car and Opt'd into the beta.

I took my car out for lunch so I only had about 6 miles of driving on the safety score, and I managed to get a 30 safety score because I got a FCW in those 6 miles lol. But later in that evening my car started downloading 2022.44.25.5 and lo' and behold I was in the beta.

Been using the beta for the last few days now and I gotta say it's impressive.

So as long as your software version is below 2022.44.25.5, you should be able to get into the beta relatively quickly after subscribing and opt'ing in.

not available to early adopters, with MCU1 media devices. We got the request button on Dec 7. No download for it yet

 

[Mardak]

you should be able to get into the beta relatively quickly after subscribing and opt'ing in

If Troy Teslike's FSD numbers are somewhat accurate, they seem to estimate about 350k North America FSD Capability purchases increasing about 20k in the same 2022 Q3 quarter, so potentially around 370k today for the region. That's still about 23% of those who purchased FSD Capability that aren't in the 285k with FSD Beta, which includes subscribers.

A big chunk of that "missing" portion is probably from the current interface of requiring an opt-in step along with agreeing to terms, and even before that is even knowing that FSD Beta is available to opt-in from the Autopilot settings screen. Not everybody keeps up to date with what's happening with Tesla vehicle software, and even with release notes, there are plenty of "new" changes that people never find. I suspect even when "Full Self-Driving (Beta)" is a plain toggle in regular production vehicle software, there will be some vehicles with FSD Capability purchased and never toggles it.

But yes, for those who know to opt-in (with compatible hardware and location), FSD Beta is readily available with some tapping and waiting.

 

[YNoVA]

They can believe that, but it seems that people still have to request, as Tesla says, which the AI Chat bots have deemed authoritatively to not be a wide release.

And remember, for some people the privilege has already been removed (due to abuse most likely), so the “still be so” part is not true.

If they do a release to all FSD owners in the production branch by the end of the year (followed by toggle to enable or whatever) and remove the strikes system or alter it such that removal of privilege is temporary and of well-defined deterministic length, then the yes will have it, with their bold stance.

The strike system makes sense though. FSD Beta is still not perfect, so it only makes sense to reduce a customer's chance of crashing by forcing them to pay attention. If I look at my phone for even a second while using FSD Beta the car brings up a message saying "Pay attention to the road." I'm not sure why it's so hard for people to pay attention, you have to try really hard to get a strike.

And in order to get kicked out of the beta you need 5 strikes.. how do people even get to 5.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

And in order to get kicked out of the beta you need 5 strikes.. how do people even get to 5.

No idea.

Strike system makes a lot of sense, no problem with it and I wish they would make it two strikes (or one and done - it’s basically impossible to get a strike when driving the car), but permanently removing access (until Telsa decides, rather than a fixed definite time period) for someone who paid for the feature with no such agreement means it is in beta, not wide release.

 

[YNoVA]

No idea.

It makes a lot of sense, but permanently removing access (until Telsa decides, rather than a fixed definite time period) for someone who paid for the feature with no such agreement means it is in beta, not wide release.

True, maybe they need to revise the strike system if people are getting false strikes.

I suppose wide release is when they merge the stack, so V11, and when they remove the opt in feature. Makes sense, but at least it's available to a lot more people now considering the current version of FSD (2022.44.25.5) is after the holiday update (2022.44.25.1).

 

[Mardak]

remove the strikes system or alter it such that removal of privilege is temporary and of well-defined deterministic length

Uhoh… I just tried driving with FSD Beta 10.69.25, and I couldn't get it to activate the whole trip! Who knows how long this poor weather will continue. The forecast seems to put the storm through at least the next few days, but I'm not sure if meteorologists would put a well-defined deterministic length at this point, so I guess technically I wouldn't still be able to use FSD Beta at the end of the year!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

True, maybe they need to revise the strike system if people are getting false strikes.

I suppose wide release is when they merge the stack, so V11, and when they remove the opt in feature. Makes sense, but at least it's available to a lot more people now considering the current version of FSD (2022.44.25.5) is after the holiday update (2022.44.25.1).

I don't think there is any need to merge the stack to qualify as wide release, but it presumably would make their software development and release management a bit easier.

But getting rid of the opt-in also seems like it would make it easier, and they're not doing that, either.

 

[YNoVA]

I don't think there is any need to merge the stack to qualify as wide release, but it presumably would make their software development and release management a bit easier.

But getting rid of the opt-in also seems like it would make it easier, and they're not doing that, either.

Merging the stack would be really nice though, especially considering how the current version of navigate on autopilot is so bad. It'd also bring improvements to regular autopilot and summon.

One thing I've noticed while using FSD is that it follows the lines a lot better than autopilot does. There are some windy roads near my house that autopilot can't do at all but FSD is able to stay within the lines easily. Not sure if merging the stack would improve regular autopilot but I'd hope it does.

 

[Mardak]

remove the strikes system or alter it such that removal of privilege is temporary and of well-defined deterministic length

MCU1 vehicles getting FSD Beta 10.69.3.3 have 3 strikes before a 2 week suspension. Turns out 10.69.25.1 also has the 2 week note.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

MCU1 vehicles getting FSD Beta 10.69.3.3 have 3 strikes before a 2 week suspension. Turns out 10.69.25.1 also has the 2 week note.

Cool! Good that Tesla understands what wide release means! Now they just have to get rid of the request. Though I don’t think that will prevent recognizing revenue (after the request).

Recognizing revenue for what we currently have, however, is…questionable.

I think a 2-week suspension is great. And hopefully that becomes the permanent policy. I would have gone more strict, but at least people cannot blatantly abuse it for very long. And there will be strong incentive for those who are trying to use the system properly to figure out how to use it properly.

One question is whether they will reset the strikes after the two-week period (hopefully not, and each subsequent strike results in another two weeks of suspension). That would be great, and very fair and quite lenient.

It’s extremely difficult to get a strike with both hands on the wheel, with eyes on the road, and peripheral vision watching the screen.

Sadly for the “yes” respondents in this poll, it does not look like this will all be happening today, with removal of strikes from those who have struck out.

The “Nos” have it!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

And for the record: the No vote was correct. Release not complete and some had struck out.